NO politics or commentaries that grind my gears this week, but back to basics with a few horses from the notebook, with a twist.
I’ve recently upgraded my Proform subscription to include sectional data and, while I’ve yet to work out how to get maximum use out of the extra information, I’m going to try to find a couple of methods for finding future winners from what I have so far, and the following horses are included on the basis of being the beneficiaries of sectional uplifts for their efforts in the final furlong.
Backing fast-finishers is no easy route to profit, but it’s worth noting that these horses aren’t simply finishing fast in scenarios that suit, but are horses whose finishing efforts are worth marking up because they have either made ground against a pace bias or have been able to maintain a strong pace better than their rivals.
In time, I hope to refine this, but I want to stay true to the basic data in the first instance before fiddling with parameters.
The quartet below are among those to have produced the highest sectional upgrades in recent weeks from horses who have won or been placed.
Amathus
(Patrick Chamings
- second at Leicester, 27/05)
The Patrick Chamings-trained Amathus is first alphabetically in my initial list, and the eight-year-old is on a long losing run, immediately throwing up a red flag, but despite not travelling particularly well in the early stages at Leicester on Tuesday, he typically finished very strongly to grab second behind Grand Citadel in a 0-55 handicap over seven furlongs.
The negatives are easy enough to see with Amathus in that he never threatened to win and didn’t get into top gear until too late, suggesting that he could be a frustrating horse to follow.
On the other hand, his run was a good one in the context of the race, and he finished really well from a poor track position (drawn 17 of 17 and raced rear on unfavoured flank), with his strong finish worth upgrading markedly in a race where four of the first five raced on or close to the gallop.
He was also wearing a visor at Leicester, and I’m not convinced he faced up to the headgear, so think he might be of more interest with the usual cheekpieces reapplied.
Amathus is suited by a strong pace at seven furlongs and, while you’d think a stiff track would suit, he’s shown his best form in low-grade handicaps on sharper tracks than Leicester, when able to unleash a late turn of foot.
Granted seven furlongs on fast ground at Class 6 level, his form figures are 15116 with his wins coming at Brighton and Lingfield (twice). He’s one to back given similar conditions and should have plenty of races to aim at when the sun shines.
Burrito
(John & Thady Gosden
- won at Newbury, 16/05)
No need to make excuses for Burrito, who was impressive when winning a Class 3 0-88 handicap over mile and a quarter at Newbury a fortnight ago, and who looks one to follow wherever he goes next.
He raced close to a strong pace but while leader Eagle Day dropped right away to be 12th, Burrito maintained a strong gallop to the line, finding plenty when asked to fight off the strong challenge of Sovereign Sea to win by half a length, with the pair well clear. This was no fast-finishing split, but the placed horses came from much further back than Burrito, who gets his upgrade for being strong at the finish despite sitting close to an overly strong gallop.
There is a race for him at Epsom on Derby Day, but a revised mark of 97 means it will only be the best handicaps that he’s eligible for, and he could make his mark in better company before long and is from a smart family including blacktype performers Epictetus and Jumbly
Hickory
(Jamie Osborne - third in Whitsun Cup at Sandown, 29/05)
Winner of the Victoria Cup at Ascot on debut for Jamie Osborne, Hickory ran really well to be third at Sandown on Thursday behind all-the-way winner Hafeet Alain having been hampered early by runner-up Whip Cracker.
He ended up too far back as a result, but kept on well to grab third on the line. He is in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot, but might be better suited by the Buckingham Palace Handicap given his excellent record over seven furlongs at Ascot and he certainly looked at least as good as ever when winning there on stable debut.
Hickory is a horse who always tends to do his best work late and Ascot’s stiff straight suits him better than almost anywhere else in that regard, so he’s one to follow in any of the high-end handicaps there, with plenty of opportunities for him through the summer and early autumn.
Equally effective on good to firm and good to soft ground, he has an easy programme mapped out for him and, while the draw van play a big part in those big-field affairs at Ascot, his run style makes him the type who will always appeal for each-way purposes at the track.
Me Tarzan
(James Fanshawe
- won Leicester, 27/05)
I’m topping and tailing the list with low-grade handicappers, although there ought to be improvement coming from the unexposed Me Tarzan, who was value form more than the three and three-quarter lengths he beat Toota there earlier in the week, and he’s another whose upgrade was for maintaining a strong gallop rather than for his finishing kick, per se.
Me Tarzan had looked consistent rather than progressive prior to Leicester, but took his form up a couple of notches fitted with a visor for the first time, and he went with exuberance close up before leading going best a quarter of a mile out, easing clear in the style of one well ahead of his mark.
He’s got entries at Brighton and Lingfield early next week and should have no trouble defying a penalty.
Nor should a return to a mile from seven furlongs be an issue, and he strikes me as the sort to run up a sequence before the assessor can catch him up.