‘That we do not learn much

from the lessons of history in the most important of all the lessons of history’– Aldous Huxley (1894-1963)

In Gaultstats.com you are hopefully going to find all the trends and stats you will ever need for punting success at the Cheltenham Festival.

The trends business for this meeting surpasses those of all other race meetings in Britain and Ireland. Why is that?

The higher the grade of race, the more likely that horses will repeat or improve on their last run. No higher grade than here. And since all there are doing their Sunday best to win, trends can emerge of those most likely (or not) to succeed.

There are only two rules in Gaultstats.com.

1. You, the reader, decides what is relevant. If some event has happened 10 Festivals in a row, you might decide it is not going to happen in 2026. Fine. There is no rule book for interpreting trends. It’s your money and I won’t get offended. We’re meant to be having fun.

2. Big Festival trends will be shot down most years. Happens all the time. In 2025 Kopek Des Bordes wore headgear to win the Supreme, the first to do so since Flown in 1992. The New Lion, the Challow winner, takes the Turners. Never happened before. 21 previous Challow winners had tried and failed.

The late Langer Dan completed back-to-back Coral Cup successes in 2025. Never done before.

So instead of giving you numbers and/or negatives, hopefully here are winning profiles for the five big races. Please take from them what you wish.

Mares have strong recent record. Winner has been placed at least at a previous Festival. Aged between six and nine years. Won last time out and over a trip not more than two miles and a furlong.

Has won a graded race this season, either on the flat or over jumps. Unlikely to have had previous run in a handicap. Should be unbeaten this season.

Was favourite or second favourite on previous run and didn’t start bigger than 9/2. Will have a total racing record of at least 10 runs with five wins.

Not more than 13 times over hurdles. Has been out within the last 45 days or won Grade 1 at Kempton at Christmas. Favourites on top. Should have won a Grade 1. No headgear. Not beaten favourite last time out.

Strong graded form in big fields. Unlikely to have finished unplaced in last year’s race.

Irish trained/Nicky Henderson have a recent stranglehold.

Unlikely to be older than nine years unless previous winner. If a 10-year-old or older is priced under 10/1, likely to be placed.

Should have won that season and finished in the first three last time out. Has won over at least two miles and a furlong.

Will have won a Grade 1 race or previously placed in this. Recently rated 160+ and has had two or three runs this season. Won’t be wearing blinkers.

Will have won or been placed at the Festival before or a course winner and/or from WPM.

Should have won at least 40% of completed NH starts and ran five times over fences. Ran since St Stephen’s Day. Not a beaten favourite last time. Eleven odds-on favourites this century, but only three winners.

STAYERS HURDLE

Likely to be aged six or seven years or previous Festival winner. If given the chance, will have been placed in at least a Grade 1 hurdle at a previous Festival. If not given a Festival chance, either has good/winning course form.

If fancied, was first or second last time out and may not have finished outside the first two in completed hurdles since Galway. Not necessarily a second season hurdler. Has run between six and 17 times over hurdles or previous Festival winner or Champion Hurdle contender. No more than four previous runs since Galway.

Irish-trained are dominating. May not be the most fancied runner from the Emerald Isle.

Unlikely to be wearing headgear. Placed horse to have ran in this season’s Cleeve Hurdle. All placed to have graded place form over three miles. Hatton’s Grace, Leopardstown Christmas, Boyne Hurdle recommended prep races. Not beaten favourite last time out. Has won a Grade 2 and been placed (at least) in a Grade 1.

RYANAIR CHASE

Usually need winning and top quality course chase form to win or be second. Aged seven, eight or nine years, proven over trip. No recent Ascot Chase or Peterborough Chases doubling up.

Not more than four runs since October. Top three finish last time in at least a Grade 2 or unplaced in a King George. Winner to be BHA rated 161+ and French-bred.

Has won at least one Grade 1 race or at least one major handicap. All placed at least rated 155. Not blinkered or beaten favourite last time.

Being ‘up with the pace’ or ‘tracking leaders’ has been important.

Big priced winner due. Not from last year’s two miles and four furlongs Turners Festival novice.

Likely to have more than six chase starts. Raced at least at two previous Festivals.

Willie Mullins trained 3/1 or shorter has a serious recent record.

CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

Will be aged between seven and nine years. Can come from any route, previously Tramore or the Denman Chase.

Will have been placed at a previous Festival and/or in a Grade 1 this season. No worse than second last time out or an Irish Gold Cup run.

Has not ran on officially heavy ground this season. At least 31 days off before coming here. No more than three previous completed runs this season.

Has won this season and/or won a Festival Chase. Unlikely to have been beaten in a previous Gold Cup.

Has run between five and 12 times over fences. Not blinkered. Something 16/1 or bigger to be placed. Favourite win is not due. Should be BHA rated 164+. Last prep run was over three miles.

Hasn’t raced over more than the Gold Cup trip unless won a Welsh National. Second season chasers outperform their numbers.

Unlikely to have been beaten favourite last time out. Not easy to win three of these or even repeat.

PERTEMPS HURDLE

This has recently become known on social media as the ‘Magic Stat’ (although that may be a recipe for disaster). Nine of the last 10 winners and the neck second home in the other race all wore tongue ties.

This included most recent winners Doddiethegreat and Monmiral both returned at 25/1. There are usually only four to six qualifiers each year and those include nine of the 10 winners listed here.

WILLIE MULLINS

It is well documented that WPM has yet to win a Festival handicap Chase but Ruby Walsh only rode in four for him and Paul Townend hasn’t got on one since Robin Des Foret, 12th in the 2020 Plate. We now have the two novice handicap chases. Watch out for entries/jockey bookings.

JANGO BAIE

Much might be made of the fact that no Arkle/Gold Cup double has been completed since Alverton in 1979. A bit harsh this one. Since 1979, Tidal Bay has been the only Arkle winner to give it a go. He finished sixth to Long Run in 2011. Sizing John, War Of Attrition and Kicking King all were beaten in Arkle Chases before becoming Gold Cup winners.

MOMENTUM

A favourite topic. Print media, television, tipsters and we punters tend to put each Festival race in its own separate box. I consider myself the worst in the world at this. We have decided weeks ago what we are going to back, especially in the graded races.

But every trainer or jockey who wins any Festival race will be immediately bouncing with joy. Even WPM. Last year on the Thursday Henry de Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore followed up Air Of Entitlement with Bob Olinger. Jonjo O’Neill jnr came off the Festival Cold List of 31 losers to steer Jagwar home in the Plate. He only had one more ride that week. Poniros. Did one win affect the ride/performance of the other? I don’t know. Horses don’t talk. But it can’t have hindered him.

In the last 10 years, that is 40 days racing, there have only been five days where all seven races were won by seven different trainers. And it’s not always WPM at the double. When one goes in…

Gaultstats.com is free to use. There is a page for each race. I hope it is useful to you. It’s a labour of love for me as I have been attending the Festival since 1985. If it brings you some luck please consider a donation to charity. In 2026 I am asking for donations to help the Irish Injured Jockeys Fund. A fine cause. These brave people provide our entertainment.There is an idonate link on the home page. Have a great week.