I HAVE very few rules about betting, the game too fluid for strict commands, but one of them is not to doubt Willie Mullins. It is a lesson learned through financial pain – if Mullins has a problem, he tends to fix it, and going against that outcome leads to punting hardship.

With those provisos out of the way, it is still reasonable to ask if the trainer is going to through a rare down period now. In themselves, his results over Christmas do not give massive cause for concern, as pointed out by Matt Tombs (@thespieler) on X.

As Tombs states, Mullins was nine winners from 60 runners across the Christmas period in Ireland (December 26th to 29th), a strike rate of 15%, which was an improvement on 2024 when he was seven winners from 72 runners (9.5%).

We saw how the 2024/25 season turned out, with championships in both Ireland and Britain though the last two years were well down on the previous three: in 2023, he was 16/70 (22.8%) over Christmas, in 2022, 16/72 (22.2%) and in 2021, 15/57 (26.3%).

Of greater interest might be the bigger picture of how Mullins has been going in last two months. The table here gives the Closutton National Hunt runners in Ireland during November and December over the last five years.

His total winners and win strike rate are at their lowest in the last five years, and by a fair margin too, though his place strike rate is broadly similar to previous years, suggesting a degree of variance. His total November and December winners of 32 in 2025 was the worst he has managed since 2010, while the database I used goes back as far as the 2008/9 National Hunt season and his lowest win strike rate in that period was 21.4%.

Within this, perhaps the most surprising thing has been the lack of a surge among his novice hurdlers. I went into Christmas expecting him to unleash stars in maiden hurdles, especially at Leopardstown but it was the first time he left that meeting without a maiden hurdle winner since 2012.

His six maiden hurdle runners at Leopardstown finished 2200P5, and the pair of seconds were flattering; Leader D’Allier a distant runner-up to Ballyfad, and Doctor Du Mesnil fortunate to fill the same spot. But the one that was most disappointing was Dani Donadoni on the final day, seemingly fancied but going backwards from a recent run at Cork when improvement seemed likely.

Even that decision to run Dani Donadoni back 22 days on from his first run back was strange, Mullins often giving the horses that run on the Hilly Way card time off until the new year, and Majborough was another to fit that unusual profile.

Positives

Mullins did have impressive maiden hurdle winners at Limerick with Bertutea, King Rasko Grey and You Proof, while The Reverend won at Cork last Saturday, and perhaps one or more of them will make up into a Grade 1 performer before the end of the season.

January has long been Mullins’ month for dominating maiden hurdles. Since 2020, he has won 67 such races in the first month for the year from 149 runners, 17 winners more than his next best month of 50 winners in December, so perhaps the novice hurdlers are just a bit behind.

There are new horses from the yard to run, from the flat or French jumps races, though there may not be a whole lot of last season’s best bumper horses yet to come.

Of that group, only Gameofinches, Future Prospect and Wonderful Everyday have not run over hurdles, though the likes of Green Splendour, Bambino Fever and Doctor Du Mesnil are surely capable of better.

So that is where we are with Mullins in the first week in January, though I write this with the sense that things could look very different for his novices by Sunday evening when the Ballymore and Moscow Flyer have been run.

THE Grade 1s at Leopardstown attract most attention in the post-Christmas analysis, the minutiae of these races broken down for what they might mean for upcoming meetings like the DRF and Cheltenham, but as an old punting friend of mine once said, ‘there is a winner to be backed in every race’, and the lesser races can sometimes prove more useful for further pointers.

One winner that took my eye out was Lynches Knock in the academy hurdle on December 29th. He shaped well on debut at Navan when sent off a big price, building on it here despite being given a bit to do. Those tactics were designed to settle him and might prove beneficial in the long term, but he was well out of his ground jumping the second last and still had at least six lengths to make up on the leaders two furlongs out.

But he made up that ground sharply in the straight, quickening in a fashion no other horse did at the meeting despite the leader Kilbarry Lucy keeping up her gallop. With races like this, it is hard to assess the form, but the visuals were there, and he should prove a good advertisement for this type of race.

The results of Grade 1s like the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase and the Savills Chase point to the outside of the chase track having the best ground, Solness and Affordale Fury both taking that route, and it is worth looking back at the biggest chase field of the meeting, the 28-runner Paddy Power Chase, to see which horses were disadvantaged.

Buachaill breá

The first five home all raced on the outer half of the track but the sixth Buachaillbocht was more towards the inner and faced other disadvantages too. He would prefer slower ground than this and got hampered three out while the circumstances with which he got into the race might also point to him being well-treated.

He was second reserve and only took his place in the field when Waterford Whispers, in the same colours, came out, and he was a well-backed co-favourite too. He looks a well-treated chaser and can win a decent race on slow ground.

Monbeg Park was another that raced around the inner and he shaped better than his 14th. This trip is beyond him, yet he was only a couple of lengths down jumping the last while hard against the inner, predicably fading on the run-in.

A drop back in trip should suit him, and he looks an interesting runner in handicap chases over intermediate distances at this track in the next few months, races he finished third in and won last year. His mark has dropped a little, too.

There were several well-run races at Leopardstown over Christmas, which often means the form will work out, but one where the leaders went too hard was the two-and-a-half-mile handicap hurdle on December 28th.

The first five all came from off the pace and Accustomed did well to finish sixth having been up with the pace throughout, rallying again late after the last. His mark of 96 means he can drop in grade too.

The fifth in that race was Cut The Rope and while he came from off the pace, he did race wide for most of the race and looked to make his move sooner than ideal given the gallop. He is not long with this yard and looks on a decent mark.