THE upcoming Cheltenham Festival is one of the most challenging for punters in years, and part of the confusion comes from the Willie Mullins novice hurdlers. Figuring out that puzzle will be important for the four days, though I wonder if the yard themselves are in as much a muddle as anyone else.

We typically arrive at Cheltenham with a broadly defined pecking order among this group and the horses towards the top of the tree run their races and often win; we must go back to 2012 to find a year Mullins failed to win one of the three Grade 1 novice events and there were five Dawn Run successes in that period too.

The market has been good at sorting them; if a punter backed every Mullins-trained novice hurdler sent off 5/1 or shorter between 2013 and 2025, they would have had 15 winners from 43 runners with 26 places, for a small level-stakes profit of 4.31 points. All six horses that were sent off odds-on in that period won, so there was an overall pattern of clarity.

This spring, not so much. The yard was quiet for maiden hurdle winners in November and December before arriving at Leopardstown over Christmas where some fancied ones disappointed, chiefly Leader d’Allier and Doctor Du Mesnil. The former has since gotten back on track; the latter has not.

In the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown, Paul Townend opted to ride Le Divin Enfant, but he was a market drifter in the betting and raced too keen, managing only fourth.

The next Grade 1 novice hurdle came up at Naas in early January and again Townend seemed to pick wrong, opting for Saint Baco who drifted in the market and ran poorly, his stablemate Sortudo (ridden by Patrick Mullins) running much better to finish a good second.

Onto the Dublin Racing Festival where Townend took the ride on King Rasko Grey in the Grade 1 two miler. That one doubled in price during the day but ran a cracker to finish a close third while Le Divin Enfant was backed from 18/1 into 9/2, going off shorter than King Rasko Grey, before finishing in midfield.

The other Grade 1 novice hurdle at the DRF was won by Doctor Steinberg, the one Mullins novice that has the profile of a solid type for Cheltenham, stepping up through the grades and winning each time, but no one seems to have really rated him at an early stage.

Tough task

Since the turn of the year, Mullins has had many maiden hurdle winners, 16 at the time of the writing, and Fairyhouse winner Mighty Park is the one that has really captured public attention, getting Faugheen comparisons in a recent interview with the trainer. He does face a tough task in winning a Grade 1 novice hurdle after just one run on the track.

So where does that leave punters going into Cheltenham? As I see it, there are three possibilities.

Firstly, that the yard figure out the pecking order in the next 10 days and the likes of Paul Townend and/or Mark Walsh find themselves on well-backed ones that go close or win, something that has already happened to a point with Mighty Park. The last 10 plus years suggest this is a likely outcome.

A more negative view might be that this is a moderate crop of Closutton novices and the lack of clarity opens things up for British and other Irish yards to get involved in races where they might have historically struggled.

But there is also a third way, and perhaps Mullins will win with some novice hurdlers that aren’t expected. This has not been the way of it in recent years – of the 15 Mullins-trained novice hurdle winners since 2013, including the Dawn Run but not the Triumph, only two were sent off bigger than 6/1.

This year could be different, however, and there could be value in taking some of the outsiders, with Sortudo one that intrigues me as he only peaked in spring last year.

WE are now in the Cheltenham dead zone, as there are few angles for the Festival itself in the races taking place just now, a prep run close to the meeting having gone out of fashion lately.

Of the 167 Cheltenham winners since 2020, only three had run in the previous fortnight, just four more if that period is extended out to three weeks, but that is not to say the recent races in Ireland will not be informative for other spring festivals.

The Bobbyjo Chase, run at Fairyhouse last Saturday, has become an important Grand National trial, producing the last two winners of the Aintree feature, and this year’s race was on a par with any of those for quality, drawing nine runners, all of them rated at least 148.

It was a well-run race, the runners completing the course 45.4 seconds faster than the those in the novice chase over the same trip that was the next race on the card, and Grangeclare West got a fine ride to swoop from off the pace to win with a bit in hand.

Testing ground had not looked his thing beforehand, especially at Navan this time last year, but he set himself up for another go at the Grand National here though a mark of 166 (3lbs higher than when third last year) makes life tough.

The runner-up Gerri Colombe has gradually come back to form this season, and this was another step forward with the potential of more to come.

He travelled sweetly through the race and finished off better than last time in the Galmoy, perhaps evidence of a fitter horse, though he too will have plenty of weight at Aintree where he has the same mark as the winner here.

Most notable

Maybe the third, Stellar Story, is most interesting of all for the Grand National at the prices. Gerri Colombe seems to have been trained with spring in mind this season, and I wonder if it is the same with Stellar Story, with Gordon Elliott likely to have accepted early that he was not good enough to win an open Grade 1.

This was the best run of his career, and he raced much closer to a decent pace than the two that beat him while coming off a 55-day absence.

He jumped well but was a little too bold at the second last where he had a hard landing, but the most significant thing for Aintree is that he will be 21lbs better off with the two that beat him here, a huge turnaround.

Some ease in the ground would be important, but he is hitting form at the right time, with a return to Fairyhouse another option if Aintree got too fast.

Of the rest, both Captain Cody and Lecky Watson jumped poorly, while Spanish Harlem seemed to resent being unable to get to the lead as he had done in the Thyestes.

Three Card Brag was an outwardly disappointing favourite, beating only one home, but he travelled well for a long way while having his first run in 84 days, and seemed in need of the outing, the vet reporting that he was blowing hard post-race. This is not as bad as it looks.

At Naas on Sunday, there were a couple of promising efforts in defeat. Collaborative paid for making his move early into a strong pace in the two-mile handicap hurdle, a mistake two out not helping either, and looks on a decent mark with a step up in trip likely to suit.

Goraibhmaithagat put up a remarkable performance to win the Nas Na Riogh, overcoming many mistakes, and the fourth Kobalt St George also shaped well when fourth in the same race.

He was travelling as well as any when hitting the second last and could not get going again afterwards. A mark of 106 allows him to compete in a lower grade than this.