AT the risk of breaking a taboo, I am not looking forward to Cheltenham.

Perhaps I should explain that further. As a racing fan, I can’t wait for the four days of top-class racing when we will get the answers to all the questions posed during the winter.

That part of the great Festival abides, but as a punter, this version of the meeting leaves me with feelings of anxiety and trepidation. This looks the toughest Cheltenham, betting wise, in memory, and not because of a lack of odds-on shots for all those sorts of horses give a meeting clarity, you are either with them or against them.

I am typically not an odds-on punter, preferring to look away from the front end of the market, and perhaps punters like me should be looking forward to betting on what seems an open Cheltenham but those outsiders need to be findable, and this year feels like a meeting with a lot of potential for chaos.

The ground is perhaps the biggest factor at play. We are after coming through a particularly wet winter when inspections, postponements and abandonments were frequent.

Heavy going

The key period of winter racing takes place between November and February, and during the 2025/26 season, 58% of all Irish jumps racing took place with the word heavy in the going description.

That figure was just 16.7% in 2024/25, while the three seasons before that were 56%, 26.4% and 20.7%. We expect that sort of ground on Thyestes day at Gowran, but not really at the Dublin Racing Festival, and we won’t know the impact of hard races at Leopardstown until after Cheltenham.

The only times where there was some racing on decent going was at Down Royal back in November, the Christmas/New Year period and various Thurles meetings but it looks as if Cheltenham itself will have its typical ground for the four days, a dry week having just passed.

Another complicating factor to consider is the Willie Mullins/Gordon Elliott dynamic over the winter period. Elliott typically starts that period strongly before Mullins gets rolling over Christmas and kicks on into the new year but that is not what unfolded this time.

Mullins disappointment

Instead, Elliott got the jump on Mullins early and has largely maintained it since, Mullins even voicing some disappointment about how the initial part of the winter went in recent pre-Cheltenham briefings, and as of the end of February, Elliott had more winners in Ireland during the ‘jumps season proper’ than his rival.

Table 1 (right) shows their respective records in the last five Irish seasons in that ‘jumps season proper’ (i.e. November through February), with Elliott having a better winter than he has had at any point in the last five while Mullins has had his worst.

What this means for Cheltenham, I am not sure, and Mullins could hardly be described as out of form, his yard with 25 winners from 112 runners in February for a 22.3% strike-rate, though they do seem to have had some issues with sorting the pecking order of the novice hurdlers compared to previous years.

British formbook

Finally, there the is the perennial question of where the Irish horses sit relative to the British ones.

Over the last decade, it has been far better to have an Irish formbook than a British one at this meeting, and the last time Britain won the Prestbury Cup was 2015 – I know no one cares about this, but it does paint the bigger picture.

In the last five years, starting with 2025 and working backwards, the score line in the Prestbury Cup has been 20-8, 18-9, 18-10, 18-10 and 23-5 in favour of Ireland, and in the last of those (2021), the market completely cottoned onto this reality as the meeting went on.

By the Friday of the 2021 Festival, just two (yes, two) British-trained horses were sent off shorter than 6/1 on the entire card.

False dawns

The narrative this winter, however, has been that the British are stronger. I am inclined to doubt this until it happens, as claims of a revival have been false dawns in the past, but the betting markets are pointing to them having a better meeting, for all they can change between now and then.

Take Tuesday as an example, where there are several strong British horses in the Supreme, including the market leader, while the favourites for both the Arkle and Champion Hurdle are trained in England.

Their handicap runners for the Tuesday are also towards head of the betting, and I do wonder if the early Easter this year means that a few potential Irish runners might swerve the National Hunt Chase for the more valuable Irish Grand National.

So that is where I am at going into Cheltenham, confused, in a word. Hopefully, readers will have a stronger sense of the meeting, and good luck with your bets.

Triumph and Stayers’ Hurdles selections in the spotlight

THE thrust of the main article here might suggest I will be keeping my hands in my pockets over Cheltenham but let’s not get carried away. It is Cheltenham after all, and like anyone else I have a few opinions.

One of those is that the shape of the Triumph Hurdle has changed utterly with Narciso Has being ruled out. He looked a very solid favourite and winning this might now take nothing like as good a performance level so perhaps something unexposed can step forward.

Proactif and Selma De Vary fit that profile after excellent efforts on their sole Irish starts, but their stablemate Mon Creuset might be more under the radar, for all a positive recent mention from Willie Mullins has caused his price to shorten.

He was only fourth on Irish debut at Naas in late January, just his second career run and his first over hurdles, but that doesn’t tell the full story.

That looked a strong maiden hurdle, the third well fancied for the Fred Winter and fifth an impressive winner last weekend, and Mon Creuset was strongest in the market and shaped much the best.

Having chased a strong pace, he was going best and looked the winner coming to the second last when he made a bad mistake, coming home well thereafter considering the seriousness of the error. He looks one that could take a significant jump forward for his next start and while this may be coming too soon in his development, he looks an excellent prospect and is worth chancing at odds around 16/1.

Unexposed

At the time of writing, half the Stayers’ Hurdle field is nine or older and while plenty of the experienced runners have form good enough to win, perhaps there is an unexposed horse that will progress past them.

Honesty Policy and Kabral Du Mathan fit that profile, but at the prices Ma Shantou is more appealing and looks a solid each-way bet around 7/1.

He has excellent form at the track and took a big step forward in the Cleeve Hurdle last time, strong at the line.

The two he beat had been competitive in the best British staying hurdles earlier in the winter and he beat them easily, and while he was nicely treated at the weights then, his rate of improvement is such that he can win again.