IF you didn’t have a bellyful of food and drink on Christmas Day, the following four days should certainly have given racing fans plenty of satisfaction and food for thought.
And the great thing was that it left so many questions, We had better competition, and it didn’t produce too many likely odds-on chances for the Festival. Indeed, arguably the two most impressive looking novice hurdlers both fell! So what questions need answering?
The new crew
Of those prominent in the Gold Cup betting, Inothewayurthinkin, Galopin Des Champs and Banbridge have been there before. The two winners have strong chances again, but Banbridge is better off back in distance in the Ryanair.
From the King George we have three new Gold Cup contenders as Fact To File was a big disappointment, never really travelling.
It’s always curious to look back at a horse’s progression and bookmakers’ prices. The Jukebox Man was available at 50/1 for the Gold Cup in the bet365 list printed in the Racing Post’s Jumps Guide at the end of October. He is now as short as 6s in places.
To me, he enhanced his claims and - as mentioned here in November - he was second as a six-year-old in a very good renewal of the three-mile Albert Barlett Novices and the Gold Cup distance should be fine for him.
You forget that Gaelic Warrior is only eight having made three trips to Cheltenham and he also missed last year’s Festival.
Would he have won at Kempton without the Townend whip flip? Or if sent for home a little earlier? All the ‘experts’ including Ruby Walsh and Lydia Hislop picked him as the most likely Gold Cup winner. He has had two hard races now this season and while I thought the Gold Cup should have been his target last season, he wasn’t right for the Festival and for once, a ‘straight there’ approach might be best. He is best priced 10/1 against 8/1 for The Jukebox Man and Jango Baie.
Too good to be true?
Affordale Fury would hardly have been on anyone’s Gold Cup list a week ago but he was well backed to win the Savills. Was it a fluke? His only Cheltenham appearance was three years ago, second at 150/1 to Stay Away Fay in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle. He is only 10/1 in places but I’d need to see a repeat of Sunday before getting involved, even at bigger odds. It would be a massive shock in my book but the Gold Cup is on Friday the 13th this year!
Haiti Coleurs dominated the Welsh National, proving he is better than just a handicapper. But could he step up to Gold Cup class? I’ve always been of the opinion that ‘handicappers’ get out-paced when the taps are turned on from the water to the third last in the Gold Cup. On the other hand, stamina is crucial and he jumps and stays and has as much class as Corach Rambler who finished third. He’s generally 14s but is one who could drift out, depending on if he runs again before March.
Kitzbuhel was one of the lesser spotted Mullins novice hurdlers last season but he stepped up significantly to land the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase under a bold attacking ride by Paul Townend. However, he won’t have Townend at Cheltenham and that style of racing is unlikely to be as effective at Cheltenham.
Do or die
Majborough is becoming my ‘oh no not again’ horse. He didn’t get the most effective of rides but his jumping wasn’t hectic over this distance. Would more fences be a help to such a jumper?
I’d be of the same opinion as mentioned by Kevin Blake, that Majborough will be just as effective by going out and driving on from the start, similar to the Arkle at Leopardstown last year. He can gallop and get over fences in his own style. The Champion Chase or Ryanair is still the question but the Ryanair has been won many times by bold, attacking horses – Allaho, Vautour, Frodon.
Will she, won’t she
Mares’ Hurdle debate... again. Lossiemouth could well take the soft option - again [did ye learn nothing from Golden Ace?] by the sound of post-race conversations and where Brighterdaysahead goes this time will be interesting, given she tried the Champion last season and her Cheltenham record just isn’t 100% encouraging. It would be amusing if she goes for the Mares’. What then for Lossie? The DRF will reveal all!
Best still to come
Both Mullins and Elliott have produced decent juveniles in Narciso Has and Mange Tout, but you can’t help feeling there is better to come. If Poniros could win the Triumph without jumping a hurdle in public, he might set an unfortunate trend for just one run at a high level to qualify. Proactif (Mullins), Matin Midi Et Soir (de Bromhead), Manlaga (Henderson) are among the well-touted ones still to appear.
Dark horses
The last two runners-up in the Albert Bartlett, Affordale Fury and The Jukebox Man, won the big two chases over the Christmas. The 2025 second The Big Westerner was very impressive at Limerick and, given she took on geldings last year, she might be a bit of value in the Brown Advisory at 14s. Final Demand looks the real deal but remember Majborough (1/2) and Ballyburn (4/7) getting sunk at last year’s Festival. Odds-on in three-mile novice chases is risky business!
ONCE upon a time, back in the day the Reds were kings of the old First Division in England, one of my town’s teams were leading 4-0 in a match with 10 minutes to go and they somehow conspired to lose 4-5. The captain was asked to explain such a capitulation to the manager. “I don’t know what happened boss, they turned into Liverpool!”
This image came back to mind by the Racing TV interview by Gary O’Brien with Gavin Cromwell after the Savills Chase, but unfortunately no explanation came on how last year’s Gold Cup winner seems to have gone the other way and turned into Accrington Stanley!
The impressive 2025 Gold Cup winner was now beaten 41 lengths, following a 54 length defeat the previous time at Punchestown.
“You’d name more National winners from 50 years ago than you would Gold Cup winners,” Patrick Mullins said in his interview this week. Inothewayruthinkin better get his act together or he might be the most unmemorable Gold Cup winner in many years. He’s certainly not a poster boy for your jumps racing adverts. Hopefully, the ‘vibes’ will be better by the DRF.