THE trials have told a familiar story, with Aidan O’Brien and the Coolmore partners dominating the trial races, but what should we expect in the Derby itself on the first Saturday of June? Some questions have been answered in the last few weeks, some have been left lingering, and a few new conundrums have surfaced since the season started, so now seems as good a time as any to take stock.

After Puppet Master won the Lingfield Derby Trial, Paul Smith, representing the owners pointed towards Delacroix remaining the main Derby hope at Ballydoyle, saying: “We like him and the two that finished behind him” of Leopardstown’s Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial winner, while also suggesting that Lambourn and Puppet Master, behind him in the Ballysax Stakes previously, had enhanced their own claims by winning subsequently.

The interesting thing about weighing up the Ballydoyle challenge is understanding there is no single blueprint for Derby success, with O’Brien’s last five Derby winners coming from differing backgrounds and taking in different trials. Wings Of Eagles was beaten in the 2017 Chester Vase before winning at 40/1 at Epsom.

Anthony Van Dyck won the Lingfield Derby Trial before winning in a blanket finish for the Derby two years later.

Serpentine won his maiden barely a week before the Derby in 2020’s covid-hit season, while Auguste Rodin flopped in the 2000 Guineas before roaring back to his best to beat King Of Steel.

Last season, City Of Troy also bounced back from a disappointing effort in the Guineas to win the Derby, beating Ambiente Friendly comfortably by two and three-quarter lengths.

That quintet went on to wildly varying degrees of success afterwards, but Epsom was the day that really counted for connections, and always will, as Federico Tesio attested: “The Thoroughbred exists because its selection has depended, not on experts, technicians, or zoologists, but on a piece of wood: the winning post of the Epsom Derby.”

The graft begins

The pre-eminence of the Derby may be under greater threat now than it has been since it was first established as the most important race for three-year-olds some time in the 18th century, but it still retains an allure of its own.

For us mere “wagon-shunters,” finding the winner of the Derby is not quite the Holy Grail, but remains a pursuit to take very seriously, so here’s where the hard work begins to pay off, in theory at least.

It’s very likely that the Derby winner will emerge from Ballydoyle, so it behoves me to pay them due respect, starting at the obvious point with Delacroix. At one time, winning both the Ballysax and the Derrinstown as it was made a horse automatic Derby favourite, but the races have lost a bit of their importance in the last couple of decades.

There was a golden period when Galileo, High Chaparral and Yeats won both races between 2001 and 2004, but Broome’s bold bid to win both trials and the Derby in 2019 has become an anomaly rather than the norm.

Delacroix has an opportunity to turn the clock back in that regard, and his defeat of both the Chester Vase and Lingfield Trial winners in the Ballysax means his form needs to be upgraded. He is out of the brilliant US racemare Tepin, whose best form came at a mile and never raced beyond a mile and one, so there is a lingering doubt over his stamina for a mile and a half with speed as much as stamina the deciding factor in his easy win in the Cashel Palace last time. That said, he looks well balanced and straightforward and that gives him a decent chance of staying the trip at Epsom.

Lambourn and Puppet Master both showed similar improvement to the winner when landing their own trials, both proving without doubt that they have the stamina required and it may be that one or both will be a match for Delacroix in three weeks’ time.

Lambourn, in particular, looked to have stamina to spare when beating Lazy Griff at Chester and will be suited by a well-run race at Epsom while giving the impression he might be better given an even stiffer test. Puppet Master scrambled home at Lingfield and many felt that a harder ride on runner-up Stay True would have seen a different result. That said, Puppet Master is the sort to keep progressing with experience, still showing signs of greenness at Lingfield.

Don’t drop the flop

Perhaps the forgotten horse is Dante flop The Lion In Winter and it’s worth remembering that most of O’Brien’s recent Derby winners didn’t arrive at Epsom smelling of roses, with Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy having to mend damaged reputations after running poorly at Newmarket. That could easily have been the way The Lion In Winter went but for a decision to miss the Guineas, and it can hardly be a surprise that he wasn’t 100% for the Dante where he shaped better than his sixth-place finish would suggest.

By an outstanding Derby winner out of a listed-class winner over the Derby distance, he has the right credentials on breeding for the big race, and time has shown that defeat in a trial is no disaster. It’s hard to forget the impression that The Lion In Winter made as a juvenile, particularly when slamming Dante third Wimbledon Hawkeye and 2000 Guineas hero Ruling Court in the Acomb Stakes at York’s Ebor Meeting.

That race has turned out to be as hot as it looked at the time, and it’s the best guide to The Lion In Winter’s true ability. Aidan O’Brien has had some ante-post Derby favourites who have turned out to be flops, but I’d be in no rush to lump The Lion In Winter with those who have underachieved just yet, and he’s sure to have derived plenty of benefit from his recent defeat in the Dante.

Delacroix may be the golden boy at the moment after his duo of Leopardstown wins, and I wouldn’t crab his chances of following in the footsteps of the stable’s brilliant Derby winners Galileo and High Chaparral, but Aidan O’Brien’s uncanny knack of getting his starts back on course after meeting a bump in the road means I will keep The Lion In Winter firmly on side.