AS anyone who has tried to build any type of house or infrastructure in Ireland lately will tell you, it’s almost certainly odds-on that the timeline for construction and planning will take longer than anticipated. It turns out that racecourses aren’t immune to that issue either - even projects with state backing.

It was all the way back in March 2019 that Horse Racing Ireland announced it was “seeking expressions of interest from existing racecourses and prospective new venues” for the development of a second all-weather track in Ireland. Tipperary was selected that December. Fast forward to the end of 2025, and it was only revealed last week that Irish racing received government approval to proceed with the project.

According to HRI’s latest bulletin: “It is anticipated that work will commence on the new all-weather track in Q1 2026, to be completed by the end of Q3 2027 with a view to staging a full winter race programme in 2027/’28.” Here’s hoping there are no further hold-ups.

Remember, when HRI delivered its five-year strategic plan in 2020 (unfortunately right before the Covid-19 pandemic) the governing body said that the Limerick Junction facility would be completed and opened by 2022. If a week is a long time in politics, the gap from a 2019 decision to staging a programme in 2027/’28 feels like an eternity in racing.

Speaking to a number of trainers this week, the question some were pondering - after all these years later - is whether we definitely still need another all-weather track in Ireland. It was revealed in the Oireachtas this week that HRI had to enter into a commercial loan facility for €34 million to fund the development of phase one.

Is investing in a second track, and a second set of all-weather fixtures, really in the best strategic move for Irish racing’s current population of horses? A number of trainers I spoke to on the topic this week weren’t so sure.

Recent figures from our existing all-weather programme at Dundalk suggest the picture has quietly been changing since when this idea was first mooted.

Winter pinchpoint

Speaking to the Racing Post back in 2019, Jason Morris, then HRI’s director of racing, said: “The most headaches I get are caused by the demand for extra fixtures at Dundalk. October, November and December are the problem months every year, that is the period where the greatest pressure for additional fixtures at Dundalk comes on… The demand is definitely there and a second all-weather track would certainly help ease the strain.”

While that may have been a priority matter at the time, there has not been the same volume of complaints from trainers about Dundalk handicap balloting nowadays. The field sizes during this winter pinchpoint that Morris referred to have been gradually declining.

This week, I spent some time drilling into the shape of this October to December window and how it has been changing.

In 2014, the average field size for a race at Dundalk during these months was 10.78 runners. This rose almost every year until a peak in 2019 (when the Tipperary project was launched) of 13.18 runners per race.

Even during the Covid-impacted year of 2020, when the Co Louth track hosted more races in these winter months than ever before, the average field size was an excellent 13.04 (field size limit is 14).

Averages in more recent years have all been down from those levels, though.

From 2021 to 2023, each year had an average field of between 12.17 to 12.76. That fell to 11.78 last year. So far this winter, it’s a very similar 11.94.

These might feel like minute differences, but to see a 22% increase in field sizes from 2014 to 2019, then an 11% drop from 2019 to 2024, shows a change in the air.

Now, there have been fluctuations in the number of races run during these three months at Dundalk. In 2016, there 118 races. This grew to 136 in 2019 when the field sizes were on the rise. Since then, in the last four years, there has been an even higher average of 156 all-weather races over these winter months. The question is, when Dundalk fixtures/races are increasing, and field sizes are reducing, is now really the time to add more all-weather meetings? To add another track into the mix?

Is there really the necessary all-weather horse population in Ireland to justify having two tracks, at considerable extra expense?

I looked into the individual number of horses that turned up at Dundalk during this October to December window in recent years, and there was massive growth around the time that the Tipperary plan was formulated. If that trend was to continue, it made obvious sense to roll out a second track.

Population changing

Consider this. In 2014, there were just 687 different horses running at Dundalk in these winter months. That figure grew, as did fixtures, to 971 different horses in 2019. It even went as high as 1,219 in 2020, when Dundalk raced far more often than before during Covid.

After averages came back to 1,048 horses from 2021 to 2023, there was a decline to 971 last year (from 1,092 in 2023).

The thing is, reducing all-weather numbers - even during what was viewed as a problematic point of the year - echoes what has been happening on the flat overall in the last decade.

The total number of flat runners year-round at all tracks increased from 11,259 in 2014 to 15,038 in 2019. It hit highs of 17,257 in 2021 and 16,612 in 2022, and fixtures increased then too.

Total flat runners in Ireland have been on the slide in each of the last three years, though. They dropped to 15,800 last year. The average field size of 11.5 runners per race was at its lowest since 2018.

Likewise, there were 2,384 horses balloted from flat handicaps across the country last year. That is a 37% drop compared to 2022 (3,762 that year) and a 33% drop from 2019 (3,583).

Again, you can understand why Tipperary might have felt like a strong proposition when balloting had essentially been growing every year in flat handicaps (it had grown from 757 horses in 2014 to 1,644 in 2017) but we’re not in the same situation now.

Buying lower-grade horses for all-weather racing from Britain has become increasingly expensive in recent times, with VAT and other rising costs in a post-Brexit world. Training expenses haven’t got any cheaper either and the appeal to running on the all-weather for Ireland’s current prize money levels won’t appeal to everyone. Where will the handicappers come from to support Tipperary’s fields?

Those in the betting side of the sport tell us that healthy-sized handicaps each meeting are part of the appeal to Dundalk’s winter action. There must be a concern that unless the horse population grows, we’re about to take away from that selling point.

Ruby Walsh, in an excellent recent column in the Irish Examiner, highlighted how declining foal crops suggest that we already are heading towards a position of having too many races for the number of horses on these shores.

Of course, on one hand, the opportunity for Irish racing to enrich its infrastructure and engage in a major project is clearly appealing. As several trainers in Munster have outlined, having a second all-weather facility in the southern half of the country will also come as a boost to those in the region to limit trips to Dundalk over the winter.

Still, whether the project still fits in with the overall landscape six years on from its inception is something that surely warrants questioning. How the sector will look when the anticipated 2027/’28 programme rolls around - assuming there will be no further delays - is another factor that needs considering. Time will tell.