CONFIDENCE will be high in the Ballydoyle camp heading into Royal Ascot after an all-conquering weekend at Epsom.

A clean sweep of the three Group 1s at the Derby meeting brought Aidan O’Brien to a whopping 11 wins in the Derby, 11 wins in the Oaks and 10 wins in the Coronation Cup. Those are truly staggering heights to be scaling.

Taking a step back from just the winners in those top prizes shows just how good a weekend it was for Irish-trained runners on the whole, though. Minnie Hauk led home an Irish 1-2-4-5 in the Oaks, there was a Ballydoyle 1-4 in the Coronation Cup, and Lambourn spearheaded an Irish 1-3 in the Derby.

Kevin Coleman’s Akecheta was unfortunate to bump into a well-handicapped winner when second in a £100,000 handicap on the Friday too.

Who was that impressive scorer? Ecureuil Secret, making his first start since switching from Ireland to Britain, having finished third to Jan Brueghel and Trustyourinstinct in the International Stakes at the Curragh last season.

The previous weekend’s French Derby was another strong showing for Ballydoyle and Ireland, as Camille Pissarro led home an O’Brien 1-4 at Chantilly. Three weeks earlier, he was part of an Irish 1-3 in the French 2000 Guineas.

While all those results may point to a big week in coming for the Irish at Royal Ascot, it can be costly for punters to approach the Royal Meeting with completely green-tinted glasses. When breaking down the Irish-trained success rates at this fixture down the years, there is a clear split with where visiting hopes tend to have the best results.

Focusing on Irish contenders in the longer distance races has been much more worthwhile than when the neighbours tackle sprint events (excluding two-year-old-only races).

Staying strength

Across the last 10 editions of Royal Ascot, in races over a mile and six furlongs or further, Irish-trained runners boast a strike rate of 13.1%, with 20 winners from 153 runners. In comparison, the British-trained contingent are just 24 from 449 in this category (5.4% strike rate).

Irish runners beat an average of 61.3% of all their rivals, in comparison to 46.4% for the domestic team. To go a step beyond that, the Irish strike rate in races over a mile and three furlongs or further is 12.5% (33 winners in that period) compared to 6.3% for British runners (61 winners).

Where the dynamic shifts completely for Irish runners is when isolating their record in five and six furlong contests at Royal Ascot. Strike rates of 13.1% and 12.5% over longer trips drop to just 2.6% in non-juvenile sprints at the meeting. From 78 Irish runners in the last decade in these races, there have only been two winners: Caravaggio in the 2017 Commonwealth Cup and Merchant Navy in the 2018 Diamond Jubilee Stakes, though the latter was in fact an Australian import until two starts before his Ascot swansong.

As for sprint handicap runners, there have only been 15 Irish horses in this category over the last 10 editions of Royal Ascot, and the best any of them finished was 10th. The last Irish-trained horse to win a sprint handicap at Royal Ascot was Dandy Boy in the 2012 Wokingham for David Marnane.

The influence of Willie Mullins targeting the middle to longer distance handicaps at the Berkshire track has meant a much stronger return in more stamina-testing handicaps.

Juvenile power

It’s not impossible by any means for Irish sprinters to make their presence in two-year-old races over five and six furlongs, however.

Their strike rate across the last 10 Royal Ascots is a much better 9.1% - 14 winners from 154 runners. The Albany has been a happy hunting ground of late, with Irish winners in each of the last three years, while an Irish-trained horse has won each of the Norfolk, Windsor Castle and Coventry Stakes at least once in the last three years.

Meanwhile, in the senior Group 1 sprinting division, challenges persist. Just two of the 63 Irish-trained runners have clicked. A total of 86% failed to reach the first three.

So while an excellent Epsom might well boost confidence for the visitors heading into Royal Ascot, it’s worth remembering that each of those Group 1s last week came over a mile and a half.

For punters trying to crack the Ascot puzzle, it is at the longer end of the distance spectrum that the raiding party needs to be focused on.

AS we’ll likely see again at Monday evening’s Goffs London Sale, the demand for purchasing Royal Ascot horses is as strong as ever.

Any number of global ownership groups have been hunting for acquisitions in recent weeks and months, and two-year-olds for the meeting are still highly sought after.

One aspect that has stood out in analysing the two-year-old results at the Royal Meeting is the spread of sires who get in on the act.

Across the last 10 years, there have been a total of 46 different sires supplying the winners of the 60 two-year-old races run in that window at Ascot.

Kodiac (76 runners), Scat Daddy (15) and Zoffany (12) are the only stallions with four juvenile winners at Royal Ascot in the last decade, No Nay Never (34) is next on three, while Showcasing (26), War Front (17) and Exceed And Excel (15) notched two apiece. Prominent sires with only one Ascot-winning juvenile in this period include Dark Angel (34), Dandy Man (22), Havana Gold (12), Wootton Bassett, Blue Point (both with nine runners), Night Of Thunder, Kingman and Frankel (each with eight runners).

When looking at sires chasing a first two-year-old winner at the Royal Meeting, the surprise omission from the roll of honour at this stage is stallion sensation Mehmas.

In the last decade, only Kodiac has had more Royal Ascot juvenile runners than Mehmas’ 35 representatives, but his only two sons to reach the first three in these races were Persian Force (runner-up in the 2022 Coventry) and Muker (third in the 2020 Windsor Castle). In fact, according to the Proform database, Mehmas is still awaiting his first Royal Ascot winner outright.

Starspangledbanner is 0-20 with his Ascot two-year-olds in the last decade, though he did have a juvenile double in his first season as a sire with The Wow Signal and Anthem Alexander.

Surely it is only a matter of time before Mehmas sets that record straight. Karl Burke and Wathnan’s Zelaina, who looked so promising when winning on her Nottingham debut last week, might well be the one to do so. In the senior ranks, Believing must have a massive chance too in the King Charles III.

Overall, though, the stats all suggest that two-year-old winners at this meeting don’t have to come from one particular hot source. Keep an open mind about these young horses’ sires next week.