IRISH Champions Festival 2026 is littered with big questions and the answers promise to make for entertaining viewing over the coming two days at Leopardstown and the Curragh.

A Juddmonte International rematch between Item, Almaqam and Constitution River in the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes has all the ingredients to be a belting showdown, and we are bound to learn a considerable amount about the European two-year-old pecking order from a trio of juvenile Group 1s on the menu.

Speaking of big questions, one of the standout conundrums for us to look forward to comes in Sunday’s Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes, when one of the most exciting two-year-old maiden winners of the entire season makes the giant leap into Group 1 company.

There was a major wow factor about what the Joseph O’Brien-trained Monogram delivered when motoring down the outer in a seven-furlong maiden at the Curragh three weeks ago to provide the red-hot trainer with his first winner for world-renowned owners Juddmonte. It must be taken as a real signal of intent that connections opted to supplement him into the line-up at a cost of €40,000 earlier this week.

He unquestionably falls into the ‘could be anything’ category. But what about the task that lies in store on the biggest weekend in Irish flat racing?

The Kingman colt (out of a French Group 3 and US Grade 3-winning Night Of Thunder mare) managed to prevail by a short head in the dying strides in a maiden on his only run. Yes, he must have been showing the right signs at home to be sent off the 4/6 favourite in a traditionally warm race, but it didn’t always look the most comfortable watch, as he overcame greenness to get on top late.

Mileage difference

He shapes like a deeply exciting, scopey prospect for the future, but will that ability be able to make up for a lack of experience at this level? Racing mileage is something that his rivals will have a clear advantage over him coming into this weekend. Main market rival Giant Sequoia enters the National Stakes with the benefit of three previous starts over this course and distance, including a win at Group 2 level in the Futurity Stakes 22 days ago.

Even more experienced is his stablemate Haffner, who will be making career start number five in the National Stakes. Having started his career with a maiden second over this course and distance, he has been to the Newmarket July Festival for a maiden, been just denied in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood and won the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at the York Ebor Festival. That is clearly a very hardened two-year-old profile for this type of contest.

Fellow Ballydoyle contender Florida Bay has even more running under his girth, this set to be his sixth start following a win in the Group 3 Tyros and second in the Group 2 Futurity.

Away from the Aidan O’Brien arsenal, British challenger Dr Rascal has won all three of his starts, including a Goodwood Group 2 over Haffner when last seen, while Monogram’s stable companion Folsom Blues is preparing for his fifth career outing. He’s been second in the Group 3 Tyros and Group 1 Phoenix on his latest racecourse appearances. There is clearly a significant contrast in profile between those tried and tested two-year-olds and the blank canvas that is the 2/1 ante-post favourite.

The vast majority of National Stakes winners in the last decade have run at least twice before taking on this Group 1 assignment. Scorthy Champ, Henry Longfellow, Al Riffa, Native Trail and Verbal Dexterity were all making their third lifetime start when winning the National Stakes, Zavateri was making his fourth when causing a minor upset last year, while Churchill and Pinatubo were on the fifth outing by the time their Irish Champions Festival targets came around.

All in all, only twice in the space of nearly a quarter century has a once-raced maiden winner won the National Stakes. One of those cases was the Kevin Prendergast-trained Kingsfort (on soft to heavy ground in 2009), but the other may serve as some encouragement to Monogram backers. It was a Joseph O’Brien-trained colt in the shape of Thunder Moon in 2020.

Familiar territory

There is a slight caveat with that, however. Thunder Moon had technically only run once in a maiden before winning at the Irish Champions Festival, but he had actually come home in front in a Dundalk barrier trial earlier that summer. It could be argued that he actually had two runs to his name.

How have once-raced horses typically fared when trying two-year-old Group 1s at this time of year in Britain and Ireland? Well, in the months of September and October since 2014, 32 are understood to have tried the great leap in grade and three have managed to win (one of those being barrier trial graduate Thunder Moon).

Tahiyra, winner of the 2022 Moyglare Stakes at this meeting, is probably the most encouraging example for Monogram supporters, and the other top-level winner in the bunch was 2021 Cheveley Park Stakes heroine Tenebrism.

It’s obviously difficult to assess the talents of that sample relative to what Monogram achieved on his debut, but the average Timeform rating for those thrown into Group 1 company for their second start was a first-time-out figure of 87. This year’s National Stakes favourite was judged to have run a slightly higher 91+. What’s striking about the list of horses beaten in their Group 1 challenge is that several went on to have highly successful careers at three and beyond. None fits that mould more than Found, who finished third in the 2014 Moyglare Stakes on only her second start (SP 7/2). She went on to score at the highest level only a month later in the Prix Marcel Boussac and memorably rounded off her career with a Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe triumph in 2016.

Future still bright

In the same experience boat was Homeless Songs in the 2021 Moyglare Stakes. She finished a well-held fifth at odds of 9/4 before bolting up by five and a half lengths in the following season’s Irish 1000 Guineas.Subsequent Champion Stakes star King Of Steel was only eighth in the Group 1 Futurity Trophy on his second career start in 2022, while top-class 2000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes winner Poetic Flare finished 10th in the 2020 Dewhurst, when thrown in at the top grade on his second run.Joseph O’Brien knows exactly what it takes to win this race, having trained three of the last six winners, and Monogram arrives to the Curragh arguably more exciting than any of his past National scorers. If he manages to collect this weekend, however, he will be doing so in spite of his inexperience.

Defeat for him here would still allow him to be a potential top-class prospect for 2027.