WE might be in the thick of the flat season proper, but this time of year is undoubtedly a frantic one for the National Hunt fraternity. From May to the end of August, there are a total of 493 jumps races scheduled in Ireland.

To put that into context, there are only marginally more races, 532, in the programme book from September to December - despite that time of year being far better regarded as a National Hunt window in the year.

Ask any jump jockey, and they will tell you just how full on this portion of the calendar is, especially with later finishes and drives home from evening meetings.

Without wishing any of this mouth-watering part of the flat season away, it’s an illustration of just how close we are to jumping’s winter stalwarts returning that we are only 62 days away from the first Cheltenham meeting of the campaign - and the following week we’ll be off to Down Royal’s Festival of Racing.

There is a particular area of crossover between the flat and National Hunt codes at this time of year, though, and it often comes in the category of three-year-old hurdles. We have already had four juvenile hurdles run in Ireland already this season, the latest coming at Killarney on Thursday, and all have been won by horses with clear flat backgrounds.When weighing up these contests, stamina and jumping aptitude are typically the key questions up for consideration (obviously alongside ability), and this can be difficult to assess when dealing with horses who have never jumped a hurdle in public before - or who have never partook in a race over as far as two miles.

Winning profiles

With that in mind, all hurdle races open to three-year-olds in Ireland from 2024 to present were analysed to see if any trends raised their head with regard to identifying winners in this category.

Races from the newly-introduced Academy Hurdle Series were not included in the sample due to the fact they exclude horses who have run in flat races beforehand, and they do not return for another 50 days anyway.

A total of 10 are scheduled from that October date to the Leopardstown Christmas Festival and they are designed to attract an entirely different profile than the hardened flat horses we see in standard juvenile hurdles. Still, their presence in the programme book won’t necessarily do much to boost numbers in non-Academy three-year-old events. Anyway, to consider the first question of sire power in these early-season three-year-old hurdles, the list of stallions who provided the winners is worth examining for a couple of reasons. Firstly, there isn’t exactly a standout sire in terms of winners but secondly, and more importantly, there is a distinct flat feel to the pedigrees making an impact.

Attached right is a list of the 35/36 different sires who have produced the 45 individual Irish three-year-old hurdle winners since 2024.

While Galiway has delivered his share of high-class hurdlers, including Vauban, Jimmy Du Seuil, King Rasko Grey and Gala Marceau, and he tops the pile with three individual winners in the category.

He remains a quality stallion on the flat, however, and stands for €30,000 in his native France.

Arizona, Belardo, Camelot, Churchill, Coulsty, Study Of Man and Territories each popped up with two winning hurdlers on the list as well - and each of these are far more associated with runners on the level, following their own flat careers.

Flat experience

Perhaps a big portion of that is that 38 of the 45 winners had already raced on the flat before winning their three-year-old hurdle.

With the ground likely quicker than in deep winter for these races, perhaps tactical speed from the flat is a considerable advantage over more National Hunt-bred rivals - albeit pure jumping pedigrees aren’t always rife in these contests.Interestingly, though, just 18 of the 45 had previously won a race of any description on the flat.

That might raise a question over the quality required to win an Irish juvenile hurdle during this part of the season. What was the average peak Racing Post Rating posted by these flat switchers on the level before winning over flights? The answer is 77, though there were four winners as low as the 50s on the flat and another as high as 110. The median RPR in this regard comes in at a very similar 76.

All in all, it gives an indication that a horse who is a little shy of winning a maiden on the flat could well have the ability to make it count over hurdles if taking well to the new discipline.

Experience is often spoken about as being key in the early skirmishes over hurdles for three-year-olds, but the figures don’t quite back that theory up.

A total of 34 of the 45 horses in the sample were winners on their hurdling debut, or on their second start over obstacles. Almost half were first-time-out hurdle winners (22).

The average number of starts over hurdles before winning an Irish three-year-old hurdle was 0.8 runs.

The stamina element of the puzzle is an interesting area too. When looking at the trip over which these flat recruits posted their peak RPR, the average distance for the three-year-old hurdle winners was nine and a half furlongs.

Only six of the 37 runners in this RPR analysis had shown their best over a mile and a half or further, and only five were at their best over seven furlongs, so there appears to be a sweet spot in the middle of those ranges for this type of race.

While the sample is relatively small in that regard, those figures also tie in quite closely with previous general analysis conducted in the area of flat horses going hurdling.

They say there are many ways to skin a cat, and the road to early hurdling success isn’t always the perhaps more expected National Hunt route.

Sires of Irish three-year-old hurdle winners since 2024

Arizona (2 winners)

Beaumec De Houelle

Belardo (2)

Born To Sea

Camelot (2)

Caravaggio

Churchill (2)

Cloth Of Stars

Coulsty (2)

Dawn Approach

Doctor Dino

Expert Eye

Fastnet Rock

Frankel

Galiway (3)

Great Pretender

Harzand

It’s Gino

Kessaar

King Of Change

Kodi Bear

Manduro

Mastercraftsman

New Bay

Persian King

Phoenix Of Spain

Ribchester

Shaman

Soldier’s Call

Study Of Man (2)

Teofilo

Territories (2)

Time Test

Too Darn Hot

Tough As Nails

Killarney Thursday*