IT only takes a quick glance at the 2025 Royal Ascot results to judge that this year’s Irish-trained two-year-olds look a useful bunch.
This side of the Irish Sea supplied the first, fourth and fifth in the Coventry Stakes, the first and fourth in the Queen Mary and the sole Irish runner in the Norfolk Stakes won. The visitors’ only two representatives in the Chesham Stakes finished second and third, while the other juvenile race results saw an Irish third and fifth in the Queen Mary, and a fourth and sixth in the Windsor Castle.
If you thought that those returns might lead to significant fields in Irish juvenile group races, however, think again. On the whole, gathering big fields for two-year-old blacktype events has been tough work - as highlighted by a five-runner Group 1 Keeneland Phoenix Stakes on Saturday. That race is by no means a flash in the pan in terms of field sizes.
Of the two Group 2 races for juveniles so far this season in Ireland, the Railway Stakes drew just four runners and the Airlie Stud Stakes had six (half of which were maidens).
As for Ireland’s two-year-old Group 3s, there were only six in the line-up for both the Fillies Sprint Stakes at Naas and Marble Hill at the Curragh, just five went to post for the Anglesey and Silver Flash Stakes, while only four running in the Tyros Stakes was disappointing.
Finally, in listed events, the two biggest fields were seven-runner editions of the Marwell and Pat Smullen Stakes at Naas. Otherwise, there were six in the First Flier at the Curragh and Churchill Stakes at Tipperary, and only five in the Tipperary Stakes.
Poor averages
All in all, from 13 blacktype races for two-year-olds in Ireland so far this year, none had a sufficient number in the line-up to allow for each-way betting and the average field size was a measly 5.2 runners. Yes, there have been high-class horses coming to the fore in these races, but they have not always delivered the most compelling spectacles in a division that is typically one of the most enjoyable to follow through the season.
Across the 13 races, there has been an array of short-priced favourites: 2/9, 1/4, 30/100, 4/11, 4/9, 1/2, 8/15, 4/7, 4/5 (twice), 10/11, 11/10 and 6/4.
Could a considerable element of these small turnouts be the fact that so many of the country’s best two-year-olds are in the same hands and may not want to clash where possible?
According to the Racing Post Ratings of two-year-olds in Irish races this year, Aidan O’Brien is responsible for a staggering 21 of the top 41 in training here - more than 51%. Of the 12 juveniles to have run to an RPR of 100 in Ireland so far this season, nine are trained in Ballydoyle.
My colleague Amy Lynam flagged an interesting factor with two-year-olds on this week’s episode of The Racing Edge podcast from The Irish Field, which you can listen to on all prominent streaming and podcast provider platforms.
Having gone through all the buyers of breeze-up horses at the Tattersalls Craven, Goffs UK, Tattersalls Ireland and Arqana May sales, she noted that of the 614 lots sold, only 51 could be noted to have been bought for or by Irish trainers (8% of all breeze-up horses). When Irish trainers aren’t as active at these sales as their British counterparts, is it unfair to expect they should have greater representation in early-season two-year-old races?
Whether the breeze-ups have really delivered bang for buck so far this year is a talking point to be fully assessed later in the season.
You could also question whether the onus should be on more British-trained runners to challenge for Irish prizes, though they do have plenty of options on home soil and they may not fancy taking on Ballydoyle when they have such a deep juvenile arsenal.
Addressing fields
A small field for the Phoenix Stakes isn’t something that has just sprung up overnight, though. From the last four runnings now, there have been three occasions where just five runners went to post and a field of seven in the other. Gstaad’s withdrawal on raceday morning did impact this year’s line-up, but a field of six wasn’t exactly huge anyway.
Albeit the funding model of these races’ prize funds would need to be considered, might it be worth exploring the possibility of removing long-range entry requirements for some of these two-year-old races, if it would encourage better and bigger fields?
Would there have been more than six in the Group 2 Airlie Stud Stakes if entries weren’t closing on May 21st for a race that’s run on June 28th? That early period of the year can be such a transformative part of a two-year-old’s development, and so much can change with Royal Ascot taking place in the interim.
Likewise, Railway Stakes entries close on June 11th, which is slightly tricky being a week before Royal Ascot. The Curragh Group 2 doesn’t take place until July 19th and it only drew four runners this year.
Yes, the Phoenix Stakes (run on August 9th) has two entry stages (June 11th and July 16th) and connections can always supplement for these races at the 11th hour, but perhaps a more flexible entry policy could leave the door open for more meaningful overseas runners.
There are quality two-year-olds on these shores, but greater depth to the races they are contesting would make the programme much better. Five-runner Group 1s and four-runner Group 2s/3s won’t set everyone’s pulses racing.