FROM a memorable tussle with the late Pat Smullen, to more recent prolonged duels with Shane Foley and Billy Lee, it’s fair to say that Colin Keane has shown a champion’s mentality on several occasions in the past to lift the Irish flat jockeys’ championship.
With a new dynamic at play this year, however, in the shape of his prized first rider job with Juddmonte - and a hungry rival hunting for his crown in Dylan Browne McMonagle - the six-time champion jockey has a serious fight on his hands to retain his title this autumn.
Even in the immediate aftermath of his role with Juddmonte being announced in early June, bookmakers made Keane the 4/5 favourite to maintain his champion status. Billy Lee was priced up next in the market at 5/4, and Dylan Browne McMonagle a 4/1 shot.
Since then, though, there have been two major developments in the championship picture. Firstly, a 14-day whip ban for Keane reduced some of his opportunities to build a tally this summer, and then came a nasty collarbone injury for Billy Lee, who hasn’t ridden since a spill at Limerick on July 12th. In previous times, you might think that Lee’s absence would open the door for more opportunities for the Co Meath native, but his Juddmonte responsibilities have meant he’s not been at home as often.
By this date last year, Keane had ridden in Britain five times from the start of the season and had no ride in France. After today at York, the multiple classic winner will have ridden on 21 different racedays in Britain in 2025, and five in France. He’ll surely have plenty more before the season is out too.
In contrast, before a Wednesday trip to York when there was no flat racing in Ireland, Browne McMonagle had only been in Britain once since Lee’s injury. There is no shortage of quality for Keane to look forward to across Europe in his new position, and, although he was out of luck, he rode leading chances in the main races at Newbury last Saturday. There is a price to pay for those trips domestically, though.
Huge feat
With Ireland’s champion jockey on duty across the water, Browne McMonagle ran riot last Saturday. From nine rides between the Curragh and Tramore on the same day, the talented 22-year-old emerged with no fewer than five winners, a second, two thirds and a fourth.
Mushaffar, trained by Joseph O'Brien, kicked off a five-timer for Dylan Browne McMonagle in the Curragh opener last Saturday \ Healy Racing
It’s believed that he was equalling the modern day record of a five-timer on the same day for a jockey under rules in Ireland, matching what has been achieved by the likes of Mick Kinane (five winners - including the Ballysax Stakes, 1000 Guineas Trial and 2000 Guineas Trial - at Leopardstown in April 2002) and Ruby Walsh (five winners - including the Morgiana Hurdle, Florida Pearl Novice Chase, Craddockstown Novice Chase and a maiden hurdle on Faugheen - at Punchestown in November 2013). That is rare air indeed.
Heading into last night’s action at Killarney, where Browne McMonagle was absent due to suspesnion (also missed Leopardstown Thursday), the younger challenger maintained a slender lead of 63 to 62 over Keane.
While Joseph O’Brien will surely require his primary jockey overseas on occasions before the end of the season, the top trainer does utilise Ryan Moore’s services over Browne McMonagle in certain moments in Britain and it’s hard to imagine the Co Donegal native will be away as often as Keane.
The top two in the Irish standings have had success for Lee’s key backers in his absence. Keane has won on five of his seven domestic rides for Paddy Twomey this season and Browne McMonagle has struck on two of his six mounts for Willie McCreery since Lee’s injury. How those links continue could yet have a part to play if the battle goes down to the wire.
The key question in assessing which way the scales will tilt is how both men can finish out the campaign. A look back at last year’s closing exchanges paints quite the picture. From this date onwards in 2024 to the end of the season, Keane rode 28 winners in Ireland. Browne McMonagle? He booted home 41, including a hat-trick on the final day at the Curragh. A similar late flourish would be massive in the title race.
Now, Keane ended up being eight winners clear of Lee in last year’s championship and we’ve seen in previous seasons that when matters come down to the wire in a tight scrap, he’s more than able to go through the gears and rack up multiples on cards.
If he manages to pull it out of the bag this year, given all his overseas requirements, it might go down as Keane’s most impressive title success yet. With a clear run, Browne McMonagle is going to make life extremely tough for him.
IRISH hopes of making it back-to-back wins in the Sky Bet Stayers’ Handicap at York on Wednesday were dealt a blow when A Dream To Share, one of the most intriguing candidates on paper, was ruled out due to reportedly not being qualified.
According to the race conditions for the £100,000 contest, which was won 12 months ago by Pat O’Donnell’s popular Extensio, “a horse must have run three times or more in order to qualify to run in this race”.
A Dream To Share had done just that, following up two eyecatching flat maiden runs at the Curragh with a qualified riders’ maiden win over a mile and seven furlongs on June 19th. However, he hasn’t got a published mark on the flat in Ireland and it’s believed that this seems to have been a key factor in the British Horseracing Authority’s handicapping team keeping him out of the York event.
Asked about why the Kielys’ stable star was not eligible for the Stayers’ Handicap, a spokesperson for the BHA told The Irish Field: “Under the rules of racing, the BHA may decline to give a handicap rating to any horse if, in our opinion, there is insufficient information to do so, which is the case in this instance.”
Given A Dream To Share isn’t yet officially rated in Ireland, it’s conceivable the Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board’s handicappers are in a similar quandary as to how to assess the 2023 Cheltenham Festival winner.
Still, J.P. McManus’ seven-year-old has been handed Timeform ratings of 82+, 78 and 83+ for his trio of flat appearances, while the Racing Post Ratings team have gone with a similar 82, 75 and 84. If we were to take the highest of those figures and go with 84 as the maximum of what he has achieved so far in terms of establishing a handicap mark, that could look highly attractive indeed given his background as a dual Grade 1-winning bumper performer.
Smart profile
While it shouldn’t have massive implications for how he’s viewed (Timeform rating of 82+ for the run/RPR 82), the form of his first flat start at the Curragh on the opening day of the season has produced quite the number of winners.
Imposing winner Dupont Law has yet to appear since, having been sold privately to continue his career in North America from the Ciaran Murphy yard, but runner-up First Wave won his maiden by four and three quarters of a length and is now rated 94, and third-placed Mister Adam won a competitive mile-and-a-half handicap at Leopardstown next time out off 84. A Dream To Share finished a neck behind him.
The fifth, Winston Junior, is still a maiden but has gone on to finish second in the Ulster Derby and a £50,000 Racing League Handicap. The ninth, Fantasy Man, won back-to-back starts in May before being sold to Australia for £250,000 at the Goffs London Sale, and Zodiac Bear went from finishing 11th here to bolting up in a Leopardstown maiden next time (third in the Group 3 Ballycorus Stakes on only other start).
Even back in 12th, Paddy Twomey’s Admiral Churchill improved to win a Limerick maiden and Listowel winner’s race on his next two starts, the 13th, Quickshot, won a mile-and-a-half handicap at Dundalk when last seen in July and Kasper Hauser, one spot behind him, looks set to win a juvenile hurdle without much issue after a good recent second at Killarney.
The next step for A Dream To Share will be intriguing to see where he slots in with the handicapper. While his York rejection may have been frustrating, he’s hinted at enough promise so far on the flat to suggest more good days lie ahead.