WE have a problem when analytics clash with visual impressions and that was the case at Cork on Sunday when Majborough made his seasonal return. We have been here before, of course, most notably with Ballyburn last season. He looked like he could jump a fence and was just lacking in experience, but the data told us he was inefficient at his fences, jumping accurately at times but slowly. His lifetime Race IQ jump index over fences of 6.3 is not good enough to become one of the top novices and he has duly returned to hurdling where he finds jumping easier.

Majborough presents us with a different case because he has consistently produced good data, even when he appears to have jumped poorly and this was the case again last weekend. This may be best explained by saying that he does things wrong in a very efficient way.

Let’s cut straight to the uncomfortable truth which is that, according to the data, Majborough jumped better than the winner Found A Fifty. He recorded a jump index of 9.0 out of 10 compared to the winner who was not as efficient with an index of 8.4. This was courtesy of Majborough being faster and more efficient than Found A Fifty at seven of the 11 fences with only one significant differential between them at the second last where Majborough made a bad mistake. Their individual jump indices for every fence are set out here.

Hilly Way Chase Race IQ Jump Index Values:

Found A Fifty Majborough

Fence 1: 7.1 8.3

Fence 2: 7.7 8.8

Fence 3: 7.5 8.9

Fence 4: 8.3 8.5

Fence 5: 7.6 7.3

Fence 6: 8.7 7.6

Fence 7: 7.7 8.6

Fence 8: 8.1 8.0

Fence 9: 8.3 8.7

Fence 10: 7.4 6.5

Fence 11: 7.5 8.2

These numbers can be summed up by saying that Majborough was quick and slick over the first four fences, by comparison not so good at the next two but then fast and efficient at the next two before making a bad error at the second last then reverting to type at the last. This contradicts the visual impression created because he did get in close to a few fences and went left at those in the back straight, but he did so without losing much speed through the jumping envelope. In short, he may make mistakes or not keep straight, but it does not slow him down.

This is best represented by looking at how much speed he lost through the jumping envelope and how quickly he recovered his speed. He averaged a speed loss of 3.73mph over the 11 fences as compared to Found A Fifty who averaged a loss of 3.98mph. This data suggests that he was not beaten because of his jumping, even though the error at the second last did cost him any chance that he had at that stage. The reason for his defeat is better explained by his exuberance. He was keen and fresh to post and enthusiastic in the early part of the race where he jumped superbly and he probably paid for that exuberance late on in the race. After all, many Willie Mullins horses are needing their first run this season.

It is my contention that he finds jumping a fence too easy and seems to lose concentration which leads to him looking awkward over his fences even if he is not losing much momentum. With sustained focus he is capable of a spectacular performance and that is why to write off his Champion Chase chances at this stage is pure folly.

If Majborough was to find the focus that would allow him to deliver his best at Cheltenham, he would still have to contend with the metronomic Il Etait Temps who was imperious in victory at Sandown last Saturday.

Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1)

THIS race was a case of Il Etait Temps turning up and replicating his Celebration Chase win and Jonbon replicating his Celebration Chase defeat. The margin between them was five and a half lengths in April and nine lengths this time. The race was run at a modest gallop, courtesy of Jonbon, with Il Etait Temps recording a finishing speed percentage of 103.90% (Celebration Chase 105.78%).

He had too much speed for Jonbon, proving faster than him through each of the final four furlongs for which their respective splits were 59.46s versus 61.84s. Il Etait Temps surged to the front three furlongs from home with his fastest furlong of the race (14.22s), clocking 32.60mph. This was too much for Jonbon who was made to look one-paced and is probably ready to go back to two and a half miles. After all, he is unbeaten in two runs over that trip. Il Etait Temps has a lifetime Race IQ jump index of 7.9 out of 10 and was close to type with a score of 7.6 on this occasion which was easily the best in the race with all his rivals jumping moderately. Jonbon was the worst jumper in the race, according to the data, with an index of 6.2 and this is becoming all too familiar for him.

Further evidence that Majborough was better at his fences than seemed the case is found in the data regarding Il Etait Temps who was clean and assured at his fences, but not as fast as Majborough. Their average speed loss is compared below, bearing in mind that Majborough only jumped 11 fences compared to the 13 negotiated by Il Etait Temps.

Average Speed Loss over fences:

Majborough: 3.73mph

Il Etait Temps: 4.32mph

This is positive news for Majborough fans but those who prefer a more measured approach will be happy to be on the side of Il Etait Temps.

Betfair Henry VIII Novices Chase (Grade 1)

THIS race was much more strongly-run than the Tingle Creek, courtesy of Be Aware who was ridden very aggressively. The final time was 5.06s faster than the Tingle Creek, all the runners posting their fastest furlongs in the first half-mile of the race. Indeed Lulamba ran faster through eight of the first nine furlongs than Il Etait Temps. Consequently, this was much more of a test of stamina than the Tingle Creek but, despite that, Lulamba still managed to run the final four furlongs faster than Jonbon. He did win easily and left the impression that he could have been even more impressive if asked.

His jumping was much better than on debut at Exeter as shown by the two index values produced of 6.0 and 7.5. He was slow over the first four fences, averaging a speed loss of 6.44 mph. Over the next nine he was much better with an average loss of 3.92 mph, seemingly caught out by the strong early gallop, but he warmed to the task thereafter.

Whether Lulamba has enough speed to cope with Kopek Des Bordes in the Arkle remains to be seen, but there is little doubt he is a very exciting prospect who was well suited to a strongly run two miles at Sandown.