VISUAL impressions can be misleading, and that is why those who were singularly unimpressed with Constitution River in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown should look at the data, and that will convince them that he is better than the bare result.

His three-length win over A Boy Named Susie was achieved in a race that tested the resolve of every runner, and he was the only one of the seven runners whose constitution stood up to the attritional test.

I will argue that under different circumstances he can be even better and, for me, he is a legitimate threat to Ombudsman in the 10-furlong division. The conditions at Sandown were described as Good (Good to Firm in places). With a meeting average Race iQ time index of 6.3 this description looks to be an accurate one although as the day went on the ground was closer to Good to Firm than Good.

Sandown Times vs Par and Index scores out of 10:

Rumstar 5f : 1m 0.38s (-0.41s vs Par) Index 6.6

Indalo 1m: 1m 40.72s (-0.78s vs Par) Index 7.3

Secret Of Life 1m: 1m 42.46s (+0.68s vs Par) Index 4.4

Constitution River 10f: 2m 4.43s (-1.72s vs Par) Index 8.1

He’s Waliim 7f: 1m 27.63s (-0.65s vs Par) Index 6.7

Tambora 10f: 2m 8.90s Index (+0.43s vs Par) Index 5.2

Stem: 10f: 2m 6.60s (-0.44s vs Par) Index 6.1

Constitution River comfortably recorded the fastest time of the day in a race that was furiously run. It is unusual to see Group 1 races run at such a strong pace, but this pace served Constitution River well. He was rated off the pace and was the only horse able to cope with the lung-busting nature of the early fractions. In effect, he was the last horse standing, but not only standing, winning with something in hand having probably found himself in front too soon.

The early pace was set by Flushing Meadow whose first five furlongs were rated as very fast when compared to the Race iQ Par and can legitimately be described as sectional suicide. They would not have looked out of place in a five-furlong race. He produced his fastest furlong in the race through the second furlong and all of the other runners found their fastest furlong in the second or third furlong.

Flushing Meadow sectionals (First five furlongs):

F1: 13.39s (Very Fast)

F2: 10.70s (Very Fast)

F3: 10.98s (Very Fast)

F4: 11.40s (Very Fast)

F5: 11.79s (Very fast)

Constitution River broke well, being the second fastest horse in the race to reach 20mph (2.54s) but was amenable to restraint and was settled in fifth place leaving him (+1.44s) behind the leader which translates to 8.6 lengths under the prevailing conditions. He still had to run fast though just to maintain that position.

His second furlong of 11.00s and third of 11.25s were both very fast when compared to the par number you would expect in a race of this class over 10 furlongs on fast ground at Sandown. This pace saw every single runner complete the first five furlongs faster than par and this had energy sapping consequences for the end of the race as evidenced by the finishing speed percentages (FSP) of all the runners.

The expectation is for an FSP of 101.67% for the winner. This seems quite low, but historical data tells us that the Sandown hill has a significant effect on finishing efforts. The following numbers tell us just how tired all the runners were crossing the line.

1st Constitution River: 95.35%

2nd A Boy Named Susie: 95.07%

3rd Hawk Mountain: 93.80%

4th Saddadd: 93.64%

5th Gethin: 91.04%

6th Kings Gambit: 90.10%

7th Flushing Meadow: 88.78%

It is clear from these numbers that Constitution River was able to cope with the strong early pace better than his rivals and finish relatively strongly compared to them. He impressed with how he cruised into the race, and he did quicken half a mile from home, recording a 12.30s furlong which followed the previous one of 12.72s, but thereafter he slowed down all the way to the line with very slow furlongs of 13.40s and 14.00s through the final quarter mile.

He was in front two and a half furlongs from home which was possibly earlier than Ryan Moore wanted, but it looked briefly as if tired horses were going to drop back into his lap and once Ryan was committed it made sense to get the race won. It has been suggested that he idled in front and that is entirely possible, but conversely impossible to decipher from the data.

It would be convenient to describe Constitution River as workmanlike in winning the Prix du Jockey Club and the Coral-Eclipse where circumstances required him to grind out success. He overcame an impossible draw to win at Chantilly and at Sandown he was the horse who coped best with the pace scenario, a scenario that caused his rivals to cry enough a long way out and would have found out all bar the very best. These factors make his performances far better than workmanlike, and its worth reminding everyone of the speed he has shown in his career to date.

AT Chester in the Dee Stakes four of Constitution River’s final four furlongs were faster than the Race iQ par, and he quickened twice. His final furlong of 11.70s was particularly impressive with all his rivals unable to break 12.00s and his nearest pursuer there was Generic who won the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot.

His career prior to Chester also provides evidence of his speed. When he won the Group 2 Futurity at the Curragh last season, he encountered a slowly-run race but quickened sharply to record a faster than par penultimate furlong of 10.81s and followed that up with a fast 11.63s concluding furlong. He also produced a sub-110s furlong when beaten on his debut at Newmarket when beaten by Distant Storm. These numbers show that he has plenty of speed to utilise when it is needed, and we could yet see something extraordinary from him.

Something special

I would suggest that if he could find cover in an evenly-run Juddmonte International, with Ryan Moore able to deliver him late in the race and utilise his change of gear, we could see something very special from him, or it may be the case that if he fails to win, he pushes Ombudsman to something even better than he has achieved before.

Given the attritional nature of the Eclipse, a step up in trip for Constitution River may seem sensible, but I have always been of the view that if a horse stays a particular trip well it does not mean that another couple of furlongs would bring about any improvement.

This is thinking from ‘the better the devil you know’ handbook, but why step into the unknown when you have a horse with all the tools necessary to be the best horse we have seen this season? And perhaps he could be even better than that, given Ryan Moore’s ebullient comments to Aidan O’Brien in the winner’s enclosure at Sandown.