THE idea that a horse has won because it got what is commonly called an easy lead is a familiar refrain. It is often seen as a warning sign about the form of a race and the true merits of a horse’s ability.
It begs the question, when is a lead an easy one? If every horse were blessed with the same amount of ability, an easy lead is simply dictating the pace of a race, dawdling along in much slower than par sectionals and thereby saving energy for a strong finish.
The problem is that an easy lead for any horse is only as good as the final product. Dictating a steady gallop and saving energy is only an advantage if that leader has the requisite speed to take advantage of the energy saved. This is why the concept of positional advantage in a slowly-run race can be misleading, because a positional advantage does not automatically confer an advantage unless a horse can utilise the energy saved.
This is why we should look at slowly-run races not just in terms of position, but more in terms of which horse can take advantage of the steady pace; in other words, which horse can sprint fastest at the end of a contest that tests speed and nothing else. After all, the leader is not the only horse in the race saving energy because of a steady gallop.
In this week’s column, I analyse two examples from last Saturday at the Curragh. Firstly I will discuss the opening maiden, in which Darkness Falls made all the running, followed by my analysis of Push The Boat Out’s defeat of Great Barrier Reef in the Group 3 Round Tower Stakes.
THE ground at the Curragh on Saturday was not as soft as perceived. The official description of good, yielding in places was changed prior to the last couple of races to yielding. The evidence of the times at the meeting suggest that the ground was at least good for the entire meeting, if not a bit faster; and that despite the drizzle that fell during the meeting.
The RaceiQ Time Index values and par comparisons back up this assessment with the meeting average being 5.8, which was lower than it would have been had the Round Tower (Race 4) been run at an even gallop rather than a crawl.
RaceiQ Time Index and par comparisons
Race 1: 6.1 (-1.02s vs par)
Race 2: 6.5 (-1.06s vs par)
Race 3: 4.7 (+0.92s vs par)
Race 4: 3.1 (+2.14s vs par)
Race 5: 5.4 (+0.14s vs par)
Race 6: 6.1 (-0.47s vs par)
Race 7: 7.2 (-1.71s vs par)
Race 8: 6.7 (-2.80s vs par)
Darkness Falls (Race 1) is a very good horse, despite the easy lead that he got. His first four furlongs were all much slower than the RaceiQ par for a race of this standard over this trip for two-year-olds on good ground at the Curragh. His splits of 15.92s, 12.50s, 12.37s and 12.39s were slow, yet he was able to quicken to such an extent that his final time of 1m 40.23s is rated as being par for a two-year-old at the trip.
He took advantage of his relatively easy lead by quickening sharply. His fifth furlong of 12.04s (par) was followed by a fast 11.25s and then a very fast 11.14s. A final furlong of 12.63s (par) saw him coast home to beat his stable companion Albany County by seven lengths. The sharp turn of foot that he demonstrated in the seventh furlong saw him hit 40mph, which was the top speed in the race. In so doing, his 11.14s seventh furlong was the fastest in the race.
Darkness Falls may have been able to save energy in the first half of the race, but he took advantage by quickening best for a final two furlongs of 23.77s, which gave him a finishing speed percentage (FSP) of 105.41%. The RaceiQ par is 101.71%.
Those who finished behind him also saved energy courtesy of the early gallop, but none could quicken as well as Darkness Falls and, whilst Cluster (third) and Kingdom Of Camelot (fourth) caught the eye running on from the back of the field, it is fanciful to think either would have won had they obtained a better position earlier in the race.
Darkness Falls is 25/1 for the Derby next year and he promises to stay 12 furlongs as a three-year-old, even if he has a pedigree of extremes, being by Camelot out of a No Nay Never mare, who stayed six furlongs. It should be noted that there is some stamina influence on the distaff side of the pedigree.
WHEREAS Darkness Falls was able to take advantage of the pace scenario in the opener at the Curragh on Saturday by proving to be the fastest horse in the race, his stable companion Great Barrier Reef could not do the same later in the afternoon, when he failed to sprint as fast as Push The Boat Out despite having the run of the race.
The Heider Family Stables Round Tower Stakes produced the slowest final time on the card, with Push The Boat Out completing the six-furlong trip in 1m 14.70s. This slow time was created courtesy of a slow gallop dictated by the Coventry winner Great Barrier Reef.
The first three furlongs were very steadily run in splits of 15.91s, 12.43s and 12.14s. Traditional thinking would suggest that this conferred an advantage to Great Barrier Reef, because at halfway he was 0.31s (1.86 lengths) ahead of Push The Boat Out, but he failed to take advantage because he could not sprint as fast as the winner in the second half of the race.
Push The Boat Out completed the final two furlongs in a very fast 22.67s with an FSP of 109.85% (par: 102.26%), which compares to Great Barrier Reef who clocked 23.10s with an FSP of 107.85%. This rapid finish from the winner was impressive, because he ran down a useful horse who was also quickening. He is the classic example of a horse who deserves a sectional upgrade.
Just as with Darkness Falls, this result was not decided by an easy lead, but by finishing speed. Push The Boat Out is a fast horse, who is bred to be a sprinter, being by Kodi Bear out of a Dark Angel mare and, whilst he finished this race strongly, it would be wrong to suggest he will be suited by seven furlongs. He won this race by utilising his abundant speed in a race that turned into a three-furlong dash. He would be suited by a race like the Middle Park, for which he will need to be supplemented.