AIDAN O Brien has a strike-rate this season of 24% with, at the time of writing, 106 winners from 435 runners.

Expectation was high last weekend at Doncaster and the Irish Champions Festival, at which he claimed the two big races of the week with Scandinavia and Delacroix. However, overall, over the four days that comprised those two meetings, he performed a little below expectations, with six winners from 34 runners giving him a strike rate of 17.6%. This does not mean that he is out of form at all. If Gstaad had won the National Stakes instead of losing by a head, his strike rate would have jumped to 20% and, in some races, he had more than one runner.

With no winners from five rides at Doncaster for the yard, Christophe Soumillon came in for some stick on various social media platforms, but the data does not back up that criticism. Given the SPs of his mounts, he was expected to win on only 12% of his mounts, and that is far too small a sample size to level criticism at him.

He silenced his critics with three wins from seven rides which garnered an A/E of 1.5 - meaning he rode 50% more winners than expected given the SPs of his rides. Again, this is a small sample size and surely the evidence of his lengthy career is that he is top class and a worthy replacement for Ryan Moore, even if his call up would seem a bit harsh on Wayne Lordan, who missed last weekend due to suspension.

MY data analysis this week starts with the win of Scandinavia in the Betfred St Leger, whom I suggested was the heir apparent to Kyprios when he won the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket in July. Nothing he has done since will sway me from that view.

The first important point that the RaceiQ data identifies about the action at Doncaster on Saturday is that the going description of good, good to soft in places was spot-on at the start of the meeting. However, it should not have been changed to soft after three races.

The Time Index scores were higher after the going change because the final times are assessed in comparison with races run on soft ground at Doncaster, and they were faster than would be expected under such conditions.

The RaceiQ Time Index values are set out below. A value between six and seven out of 10 denotes a time in accordance with conditions as described.

Treble Tee: 6.5

Puerto Rico: 3.8

Eternal Sunshine: 6.5

Marvelman: 8

Scandinavia: 8.9

Pathein: 7

Fantasy Believer: 9.7

Those last four values would have been more in line with the first three and the change in the going was plain wrong.

Back to the Leger. Scandinavia is a relentless, tough galloper, who battled his way to the front and refused to give in to the late surge of Rahiebb to win by a neck. He left the impression that a return to further would suit him, with a Cup campaign likely next season.

This race was not run at an end-to-end gallop, but the pace increased half a mile from home, making it a good test at the trip. Lambourn made the running and he was rated evenly through the first two and a half furlongs, but then Sean Levey steadied the gallop recording three furlongs slower than par (F5: 13.34s F6: 13.14s F7: 12.88s).

Price to be paid

Thereafter, the pace increased, with Scandinavia tracking Lambourn in second place through even fractions to half a mile from home, where Tom Marquand committed Scandinavia. He went past Lambourn with two faster than par sectionals of 11.68s and 11.67s, before slowing down in the final quarter mile, which, given he had been sent for home a long way out, is understandable.

His final furlong of a slow 13.06s was just good enough to hold on from the patiently-ridden Rahiebb, who was in trouble a long way from home but was faster than the winner through the final three furlongs, producing a higher finishing speed percentage. Still, he could not get past Scandinavia, who had been better positioned throughout.

Rahiebb had finished in front of Scandinavia in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot and looks to be a thorough stayer, who wants two miles plus.

Final three-furlong splits and FSP:

Scandinavia: 36.91s / 103.34%

Rahiebb: 36.44s / 104.70%

Lambourn was the notable disappointment, and it is difficult to make excuses for him. It is possible that the trip stretched him given that his final two furlongs (12.44s / 13.26s) were much slower than the RaceiQ par. A return to 12 furlongs may be the right move, given he could not remain competitive in the closing stages against the first two who are strong stayers.

THE ground at Leopardstown was described as good to yielding, which is supported by the meeting average RaceiQ Time Index of 6.4.

The two Group 1 races were evenly run and produced slightly above average scores of 7.8 (Fallen Angel) and 7.2 (Delacroix), which are indicative of the ground riding as described. If anything, it could have quickened up a touch during the day.

Christophe Soumillon should take the plaudits for this success with a ride in the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes that saw him being the first to strike turning for home, and Delacroix responded with his customary change of gear.

The Dubawi colt has now won three times and been second twice at this track and, in all his wins, has shown a smart turn of foot. This race was run at a strong tempo, courtesy of Mount Kilimanjaro, who acted as a pacemaker.

For a few strides it looked as if Delacroix was going to be ridden prominently, but Soumillon was happy to rein back and race in fifth place. The solid pace meant that the principals finished relatively slowly, with Delacroix recording a slower-than-par finishing speed percentage of 100.96% (Par: 102.06%).

Decisive move

However, the closing stages were not the significant part of the race. That moment came with half a mile to go, where Delacroix was asked for an effort, quickening from fifth to first with a fast furlong of 12.10s - and he backed that up with a 12.19s split.

This move meant that he got first run on Anmaat, who had been tracking him throughout the race, and the deficit could not be eroded particularly as Delacroix was able to sustain his speed with a penultimate furlong of 11.83s, compared to Anmaat 11.90s.

The decisive move off the home turn is further emphasised by the fact that the first two recorded the same final three furlong split of 37.05s, but Delacroix recorded that number having stolen a march turning in, with that 12.10s furlong compared to Anmaat’s 12.13s.

This was the strongest-run race that Delacroix has encountered this season and, despite not being able to flash the raw speed that he showed when winning the Ballysax, he was still able to show the tactical speed necessary to put up a top-class performance.

His future may lie in the breeding sheds, given that he is a valuable commodity being by Dubawi out of the brilliant mare Tepin. Should he continue to race, he would not be inconvenienced by a drop to a mile - such is the speed that he possesses.

A STRONG headwind in the home straight at the Curragh on Sunday makes time analysis tricky. The first three races were slower than the RaceiQ standard times, with the next five were faster suggesting that the wind was at its strongest at the beginning of the day.

The ground was described as yielding for race one but changed too good to yielding, yielding in places after five races. The RaceiQ Time Index scores would support that going change, although it is hard to know just how much of an effect the wind had at the start of the day.

Race Time index Scores:

Tango Flare: 3.7

Alparslan: 2.6

Precise: 4

Arizona Blaze: 6

Zavateri: 5.9

Al Riffa: 6.8

Barnavara: 8.9

Shaool: 9.5

ZAVATERI remains unbeaten after a stirring tussle with Gstaad and the Dewhurst at Newmarket will be next on the agenda.

Eve Johnson Houghton’s colt posted a winning time of 1m 26.73s, which was 2.40s faster than Precise in the Moyglare Stud Stakes over the same trip. That final time is indicative of a strong even gallop, as compared to the fillies, who went very steady through the middle section of the race.

Zavateri won despite a tardy start, being the slowest horse in the race to reach 20mph at 3.79s. This compares to Gstaad, who was fourth quickest at 3.42s. Thereafter, he raced in the rear before making a striking move with three furlongs to go. His fifth-furlong surge of a fast 11.30s took him to the front and he maintained a narrow advantage with a fast penultimate furlong of 11.03s.

These two sectionals represent a sharp turn of foot off an even gallop and were both faster than Gstaad. Zavateri paid for this big move in the final furlong, as Gstaad rallied, but was still game enough to hang on, both recording identical final furlong times of 12.22s.

Their final two-furlong times are very similar as detailed below, but the winner held the edge in terms of speed, recording a top speed of 40.30mph compared to Gstaad at 40.14mph. Zavaterti also recorded a faster individual furlong of 11.03s compared to 11.06s for Gstaad.

Final two-furlong splits:

Zavateri: 23.25s

Gstaad: 23.28s

There is very little between these smart colts, but the suspicion is that the right horse won, given his tardy start and ability to quicken smartly into contention. He will stay a mile next year and is a 2000 Guineas prospect.

FOLLOWING his success in the Comer Group International Irish St Leger, the remarkably versatile Al Riffa has been allotted joint top-weight with Via Sistina in the Melbourne Cup. The two-mile trip at Flemington should be no problem, given the severe test of stamina that he encountered at the Curragh last Sunday.

This was a very strongly-run race, leading to a slow-motion finish, with the patiently ridden Al Riffa keeping on better than his toiling rivals. The par FSP at this trip at the Curragh on the ground as described is 107.19%. Al Riffa was able to win by four lengths by running an FSP of 100.87% with all the other runners recording a figure under 99%.

The attritional nature of the contest was courtesy of Al Qareem, who took the field along through each of the first seven furlongs faster than par. His second furlong of 11.90s and third of 11.94s are splits that belong in a mile race - not one over this one-mile-six-furlong trip.

Savvy ride

Dylan Browne McMonagle sensibly rated Al Riffa at the back of the field, saving energy in what was a pace-savvy ride. Al Riffa did not have to find a change of gear to get to the front; he simply had to keep going better than the rest. He did just that despite recording a very slow final three furlongs of 38.21s. Everything is relative, though, as is evidenced by the runner-up recording 39.19s and the third posting a pedestrian 40.32s.

Al Riffa is a remarkable racehorse, who is a Group 1 winner over seven, 12 and now 14 furlongs. He deserves his Melbourne Cup spot.

THE RaceiQ Time Index score of 9.5 achieved by Shaool in the final race at the Curragh on Sunday, the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Northfields Handicap, makes her a horse to follow this autumn. The improving four-year-old took this premier handicap off a mark of 85 and there is another decent prize in her this season.

The way she surged from the back of the field to win going away was eye-catching, and the data is positive about her performance. She was still in 14th place with three furlongs to go but, off what was a strong gallop, finished her race off very strongly to record a final three furlongs of 35,92s, which was 1.14s quicker than Tony Montana in second. Her very fast final time of 2m 4.28s was quicker than Barnavara, who won the Group 2 Blandford Stakes on the same card in 2m 5.08s and Barnavara is officially rated 109.

There is a chance that Shaool is a little flattered by saving energy off a fast pace for a strong finish but, nonetheless - even when reassessed with a 12lb rise to 97 - she is going to look well-treated, particularly in big field handicaps where the pace is strong over this 10-furlong trip.

She has only been with Johnny Murtagh since March and is just getting going now.