THE problem for the advocates of trainer form is that it does not give you an edge. By the time it has been recognised that a particular trainer is operating below his usual strike rate, he or she is back in form.

It is also an inexact science, perhaps best filed in the ‘guesswork’ drawer. If a trainer with a high strike rate has a quiet couple of weeks, it takes a leap of faith to infer he or she is out of form and out of form needs to have a cogent explanation if it is to be believed.

It is often accompanied by an assumption that something is ailing the horses in the yard, but do we know that if that is the case are all the horses affected? We see the same generalisation when kids go to school and the playground gossip surrounds a bug that is going around the school, yet your son or daughter is fit and healthy and unafflicted.

Trainer form also fails to consider the possibility that a trainer in a particular period of time has simply run some of his least talented horses who have failed to win, thereby temporarily affecting his strike rate.

Gossip

Last Saturday, there was plenty of gossip surrounding the form of the Aidan O’Brien yard being thrown into the analytical mix through both the written and spoken medium. I trust the humble pie tasted good on Saturday night.

Sun Goddess produced the best two-year-old performance of the season when winning the Cheveley Park Stakes by a length in a new course record time. That she was able to set a record is an indication of how the race was run and the conditions that prevailed and, as ever, it is how that time was achieved that matters most.

The ground at Newmarket last Saturday was officially described as being good to firm, but the data suggests it was probably quicker than that, but not so fast that horses were not prepared to let themselves down on it.

All seven winning times were faster than the Race iQ par for good to firm ground with an average time index for the meeting of 7.7, if the ground had genuinely been good to firm that number would have been closer to 5.5-6.0.

Time Index Values and Par comparison:

Race 1: Al Samsama: 6.9 (-0.91s vs Par)

Race 2: Haffner: 6.9 (-1.05s vs Par)

Race 3: Sun Goddess 9.7 (-1.94s vs Par)

Race 4: Orthodox 7.7 (-0.97s vs Par)

Race 5: Pierre Royal 7.9 (-1.71s vs Par)

Race 6: Queen Of The Gulf 6.3 (-0.53s)

Race 7: Sword 8.3 (-1.52s)

Tattersalls Sceptre Sessions Cheveley Park Stakes (Fillies Group 1)

Sun Goddess set a new course record of 1m 9.08s. As is always the case with a fast time, it was achieved in a strong but evenly-run contest, where the winner was able to distribute her considerable energy in a constant manner.

This is reflected in her Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 101.36%, which was almost bang on the par expectation of 101.26%. To say that she hit the par expectation is not to downgrade the performance, instead we should recognise just how talented a horse must be to be able to run to what is the Group 1 par expectation over six furlongs on the Rowley Mile and, in so doing, was able to beat the runner-up (Libertango) by a length, who also beat the course record.

When a horse runs evenly and achieves such a fast time, there are few peaks and troughs in her individual splits. That was the case here, with Sun Goddess running one furlong that was marginally quicker than the par and one that was marginally slower, the other four were on par - showing just how well she was able to sustain her speed throughout the contest.

Sun Goddess – individual splits:

Furlong 1: 13.83s (Par)

Furlong 2: 10.64s (Fast)

Furlong 3: 10.82s (Par)

Furlong 4: 11.07s (Slow)

Furlong 5: 10.93s (Par)

Furlong 6: 11.78s (Par)

This ruthless display of sustained speed contains a change of gear, which came at the two-furlong pole where she found a 10.93s furlong which, contrary to some analysis, suggests she handled the much-talked-about dip well.

Both Libertango (second) and Alwaysangel (third) were marginally quicker than her through this furlong, but they could not sustain that speed like she did through the final furlong, where she asserted her authority.

Final furlong splits:

1st Sun Goddess: 11.78s (Par)

2nd Libertango: 11.92s (Par)

3rd Alwaysanangel: 12.04s (Par)

We already know that she stays seven furlongs after her demolition job in the Moyglare, and her stamina in a strongly-run six-furlong race shines through in those closing splits.

There are plenty of horses who can quicken and win races with a turn of foot, but what sets the elite apart is their ability to carry that speed further than others can, and Sun Goddess belongs at the head of that unique group when it comes to two-year-olds that we have seen in recent years.

This performance secured her place as a short-priced 7/4 favourite for the 1000 Guineas. For some, the problem with taking that price is the uncertainty that surrounds her ability to stay a mile.

We will learn more in that regard later this season, but for now we can look at her stride data to give us a clue as to whether she will stay a mile and the answer must be an emphatic yes.

Stride length

In the Cheveley Park Stakes, her maximum stride length was a staggering 8.28 metres and her average throughout the race was 8.04 metres, which compares to a maximum of 7.76 metres and average of 7.37 when she won the Moyglare on easier ground.

This suggests that, if she had raced on better ground at the Curragh, she may well have been even more impressive, better able to stride out on decent ground. This long stride tells us she is a galloper who will be suited by a mile particularly on decent ground, but what makes her different is that she can quicken.

Most long-striding horses will stretch and lengthen their stride when asked for an effort. In contrast, amidst her long stride, she can increase her cadence as she showed in the Cheveley Park when she quickened two furlongs out.

Going into that penultimate furlong, her cadence was 2.30 strides per second, but through that furlong where she ran a 10.93s furlong, she increased her cadence to 2.32 strides per second - this whilst her stride length through that furlong was a very big 7.88 metres.

A long-striding filly with the ability to change gear could make her an even better horse at a mile and she may get a chance to show that in the Fillies Mile back at Newmarket and/or at the Breeders’ Cup. Either way, she has lit up the season with her brilliance and durability, campaigned ambitiously with no fear of defeat. The usual chat about whether she will train on will rage, but I am not sure what training on really means.

If she does train on, will she be able to run faster and have a longer stride and, if she doesn’t train on, she will only be able to run slower and have a shorter stride. The data is clear that she is a unique talent, and we should put the trained on or not debate in the drawer with trainer form.