Juddmonte Irish Oaks (Group 1)
JOSEPH O’Brien is having a stellar season as identified by his current statistics. At the time of writing in 2026 he has had 97 winners from 519 runners at a strike-rate of 19% which puts him on target to easily better his 2025 tally of 116 winners which he achieved at a strike-rate of 12%.
His success is closely allied to Dylan Browne McMonagle, a supremely talented jockey who is on target to have his best season. In 2026 he has had 46 winners at a strike-rate of 18% which is 3% better than his strike-rate last year and he is performing better than expected given the starting price of his mounts with his ‘actual over expected’ winners ratio performing at 1.05.
They are an irresistible combination, and they combined to land the Juddmonte Irish Oaks last Saturday at the Curragh. completing the English and Irish Oaks double, another first for them.
The conditions at the Curragh were officially described as good to firm (good in places) and this concurs with the data. The average Race IQ time index came in at 5.8 out of 10 and that number would have been higher without the first race which was very steadily run (Index 2.7 / FSP 112.41%) and in effect artificially lowered the average index.
On this fast ground Johanna Walsh produced the fastest time of the day completing the Irish Oaks in a fast time of 2m 28.49s which is (-2.44s) faster than the Race IQ Par expectation for a race of this quality on the prevailing ground at the Curragh, consequently this race produced the highest time index of the day of 7.9 out of 10.
This fast time was achieved in a strongly-run race where the winner raced at a tempo that can be described as Fast/Even/Even/Fast. This resulted in the winner recording a finishing speed percentage (FSP) of 105.68% (Par: 105.14%) which is testament to the strong and even gallop.
Winning move
Johanna Walsh was quickly into stride, the third fastest horse in the race to reach 20mph (2.61s) and thereafter she was settled in fourth place as the Aidan O’Brien pacemakers took the field through strong early fractions.
The first three furlongs were faster than the Race IQ par number expectation, with all the runners completing the first second and third furlongs in sub-12.00s splits. This strong early pace was followed by even/par fractions through the next six furlongs with there being little positional changes, Johanna Walsh still racing in fourth place with three furlongs to run.
The race was won between the three-furlong and two-furlong pole with Johanna Walsh quickening to the front with an 11.86s 10th furlong and she backed that up with an 11.36s 11th furlong.
This injection of speed saw her get first run on Inis Mor (second) and Sparan Nua (third) and she finished the race strongly with a faster than par 11.91s final furlong, which was faster than both of her closest pursuers. Although it looked as if Sparan Nua in particular was closing the winner down late in the race, the data tells us she was actually 0.05s slower than the winner in the final furlong. At the point where Johanna Walsh quickened to the front with the crucial 11.86s 10th furlong Inis Mor and Sparan Nua were racing in eighth and ninth places respectively and were possibly too far back the way the race developed, but neither were able to produce a final three furlongs that were quicker than the winner which suggests that they cannot be called unlucky.
Final three-furlong splits:
1. Johanna Walsh 35.13s
2. Inis Mor 35.33s
3. Sparan Nua 35.48s
Sparan Nua merits respect given that this was just her fourth start, and she encountered some trouble in running when first starting to gather momentum. She is worthy of her place in another Group 1 against fillies and the Yorkshire Oaks may well be the target now.
It has been suggested that Joseph O’Brien faces a dilemma now with Thundering On and Johanna Walsh potentially being targeted at the same races. I am not sure there is an issue though, because it is surely conditions that will dictate where they may run.
Thundering On showed at Epsom in the Oaks that she is ideally suited by some give in the ground and Johanna Walsh is at home under faster conditions.
One thing is for sure, under the guidance of Joseph O’Brien their futures are secure.
JUST for good measure Joseph O Brien also won the Group 2 1xbet.ie Proud Supporters of Irish Racing Curragh Cup last weekend with Trustyourinstinct. This was one that got away for Dylan Browne McMonagle who rode Al Riffa (third) in the race instead. Declan McDonagh was the beneficiary, and he was a more-than-able substitute.
The ground on Sunday was very similar to the previous day, described as being good to firm and that is backed up by the meeting average time index of 5.9. Trustyourinstinct completed the mile-and-three-quarter trip in a time of 2m 58.20s (-1.34s) under the Race IQ par expectation.
This final time was achieved in a steadily-run race with a fast finish, the winner’s turn of foot and having his finishing effort timed to perfection the key to his success. This impressive win is an excellent advertisement for the talents of Purview who beat Trustyourinstinct comfortably in the International Stakes at the Curragh.
The winner recorded an FSP of 111.44% (Par: 106.65%) which is an indication of how much energy he was able to save for a fast finish. He was cantering turning for home, with Declan McDonagh anxious to get as much cover as he could for as long as possible. He produced him at the two-furlong pole and the response from Trustyourinstinct was electric.
He quickened smartly with a penultimate furlong of 11.12s (faster than par) and a final furlong of 11.61s (very fast against par) which surged him to the front for an easy three-quarter-length success.
This turn of foot saw him make up 0.42s in the final quarter mile which equates to him being two and a half lengths faster than the runner-up Happy Pharoah through that concluding part of the race. This is impressive, given that he was quickening past horses who were not stopping and who were also running quickly; he deserves extra credit. The Irish St Leger is an obvious target for Trustyourinstinct and the Melbourne Cup may be in the mix as well. His turn of foot at Melbourne would be a huge asset in a race where it can pay to be held up and delivered late. Either way, races that enable him to flash his speed are always going to suit him better than attritional tests of stamina.
AIDAN O’Brien had little to cheer at Juddmonte Irish Oaks weekend, but Speckles made an eye-catching debut for him when a staying-on sixth under Wayne Lordan in the steadily run seven-furlong maiden on Sunday, writes Andy Stephens.
She was dropped out last in a race where it paid to race handy, plus was green when asked to move forward three out. However, it was all encouraging from then on as she clocked 10.90sec in the penultimate furlong before motoring through the final furlong in 11.50sec under considerate handling.
Her finishing speed percentage of 111.11% was best of the bunch and she is open to considerable improvement, not least when upped in distance given her dam won a Yorkshire Oaks and her siblings have all been middle-distance performers.
On the same card, the Andrew Slattery-trained Star Above Me shaped like a certain future winner in the five-furlong maiden. She was 10th of the 11 runners two out after being outpaced but stayed on strongly to nose ahead inside the final furlong, only for La Tache to collar her in the final strides.
The daughter of Starman was the only runner to run under 11sec in the penultimate furlong and her final furlong of 11.74sec was also easily best. She will know more next time.
Finally, keep Jakajaro in mind after his third in the Tulfarris Hotel And Golf Resort Sapphire Stakes 24 hours earlier.
Robert Cowell’s front-running five-year-old looked the most likely winner a furlong and a half out but he had set strong fractions on the far side and faded to finish third. His finishing speed percentage was only eighth best of the 10 runners and indicated he probably did too much too soon.
The Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes at York next month, for which he’s quoted at 20-1, will play to his strengths.