LAST week was one that promised Derby and Oaks clues at York and Leopardstown and the Dante and Musidora make for interesting data analysis even if the former paints a muddling picture.
The Dante may well have featured the Epsom Derby winner, but identifying which horse that may be provides punters with a conundrum after Pride Of Arras won the Group 2 race over 10 furlongs at York last week.
The Derby picture remains a murky one after this trial with The Lion In Winter now returned to favouritism (5/2) after finishing sixth, while the winner Pride Of Arras is available at double those odds.
Much of the post-race focus was on The Lion In Winter who pulled too hard and was not given a hard time having been hampered late in the race.
That The Lion In Winter was too keen has been blamed on freshness and the fact that he raced over seven furlongs when we last saw him in the Acomb Stakes. There is clearly some validity to these assertions, but the truth lies in the pace of the race.
Steady gallop
Sea Scout dictated a steady gallop through the first six furlongs and the race turned into a four-furlong dash. The leaders slow early splits causing The Lion In Winter to pull hard for a furlong and a half.
Those first six furlongs were 3.04s slower than the Middleton Stakes won by See The Fire and the slow pace allowed the Dante runners to save energy for a faster finish than we saw from See The Fire.
Pride Of Arras completed the final three furlongs in 35.13s (finishing speed percentage 108.31%) with See The Fire recording 36.32s (finishing speed percentage 102.79%).
All bar one of the finishers in the Dante were faster than See The Fire through the final three furlongs having been allowed to save energy for a fast finish.
In no way was this a test of stamina, with Pride Of Arras quickening well to record a final three furlongs that were faster than par as recorded below.
Pride Of Arras - Final three furlongs
F8: 11.38s (Fast)
F9: 11.43s (Very Fast)
F10: 12.32s (Fast)
On only his second start, he handled the step up in grade and showed a sharp turn of foot, but the way this race was run provides no clues as to how he and the others will fare in the Derby which will be a much tougher test of stamina.
The Race IQ data is positive about the effort of Damysus in second place. On a day when it was best to race middle to the far side, he made his effort closest to the stands side, but still recorded the fastest final three furlongs of 35.07s. He and the winner are open to more improvement.
Positivity
As far as The Lion In Winter is concerned it would be no surprise to see him win the Derby and the data provides some positivity for his backers, in that he finished the race relatively strongly despite pulling hard and not being given a hard time.
His finishing speed percentage of 106.99% was faster than the Race IQ par of 105.21% and it’s testament to his ability that he can race too keenly yet still find reserves to finish relatively strongly. I suspect we will see a completely different ‘Lion’ at Epsom.
IN contrast to the Dante Stakes, the Group 3 Tattersalls Musidora Stakes was strongly-run with Ryan Moore on the winner, Whirl, keen to ensure a strong test of stamina.
The final time of 2m 9.61s (Race IQ Time Index 4.8) was 1.95s faster than the Dante (Race IQ Time Index 2.2).
Ryan Moore was aggressive out of the stalls and attended a strong pace set by Tattycoram. A second furlong of 11.88s (fast) and a third of 11.58s (very fast) ensured that there was no hiding place.
Seemingly assured of her stamina, Ryan Moore took up the running four furlongs from home and she galloped out resolutely to record a finishing speed percentage of 100.61%. Races over this trip at York on decent ground normally feature a stronger finish as indicated by the Race IQ par of 105.71% but such was the attritional nature of this race, the result was achieved through stamina rather than speed.
Strong stayer
The true test at the trip was too much for her rivals who finished well strung out with Whirl galloping out in the style of a strong stayer to win by five and a half lengths.
She looks to be an ideal type for the Oaks and it was a little surprising to hear the Prix Diane being mentioned afterwards. She may well improve for a step up in trip and the 10/1 generally on offer at the moment would be a fair price if we knew that this was her intended target.
THE two-year-old Italy, trained by Aidan O’Brien, made a winning debut in taking fashion in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden at Leopardstown last Friday week.
The impressive part of this display was his ability to reel in the runner-up who got first run in a steadily-run contest.
The Secretadversary set a modest gallop going through the first half of the race in splits that were rated as being slow or par as against the Race IQ data as detailed below.
F1: 16.81s (Slow)
F2: 12.47s (Slow)with
F3: 12.62s (Par)
F4: 12.69s (Par)
As this slow gallop unfolded, Italy found himself in a poor position courtesy of being slowest from the stalls taking 3.04s to reach 20mph.
The Secretadversary picked up turning for home with Italy poorly placed in fourth and five lengths adrift of the leader, but Italy showed tremendous speed in the final two furlongs to catch the leader who was not stopping.
Italy recorded a finishing speed percentage of 108.27% (Race IQ par 101.66%) with two very fast final furlongs of 11.57s and 12.23s. This turn of foot allowed Italy to run down The Secretadversary who kept on strongly as evidenced by his above par finishing speed percentage of 104.84%.
Tremendous effort
This was a tremendous effort on debut where given the run of the race, Italy could have been forgiven if he had failed to get to the runner-up, but that he did so very easily without having a hard race is testament to his ability.
Given that his sire is Wooton Bassett he fails to qualify for the Chesham at Royal Ascot, a race where the sire has to have won over 10 furlongs or more, but Italy is surely a pattern race performer in the making.