THE Betfred Derby and Oaks are upon us and both races look sure to produce some fascinating data. A study of mile and a half races at Epsom reveals that races over this trip are won by horses who are able to show sustained speed in the home straight and record a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) well over 100% with the par over this trip at Epsom being 112.34%.

The inference is that jockeys ride conservatively from the stalls as they race uphill and then horses get to freewheel and save energy down the hill and round Tattenham Corner. Thereafter, the pace picks up considerably in the final half-mile and an ability to pick up and sustain speed over those final four furlongs is a crucial factor

Last year City Of Troy recorded an FSP of 108.40% meaning that he covered the final three furlongs 8.40% faster than he ran the previous 11 and this is a familiar refrain. In the Oaks, Ezeliya recorded an FSP of 111.52% and a steadily run Coronation Stakes meant that Luxembourg sprinted to success with an FSP of 112.61%. In 2023, the numbers were also pointed to strong finishes with the FSP’s in the corresponding races being 115.24% (Auguste Rodin) 113.84% (Emily Upjohn) 108.44% (Soul Sister)

All six winners cited above recorded their fastest furlong in the race between the three and two-furlong pole. An indication that the pace tends to pick up as soon as they straighten for home. Their splits are below.

City Of Troy: Fastest Furlong: 11.63s (1m 2f)

Ezeliya: Fastest Furlong: 11.59s (1m 2f)

Luxembourg: Fastest Furlong: 11.31s (1m 2f)

Auguste Rodin: Fastest Furlong: 10.85s (1m 2f)

Soul Sister: Fastest Furlong: 11.51s (1m 2f)

Emily Upjohn: Fastest Furlong: 10.55s (1m 2f)

It is worthy of note that Delacroix, who won the Leopardstown Derby trial, did so with a display of speed that he had not shown before. He recorded an FSP of 115.32% (par 102.06%) and his final three furlongs of 11.44s 10.89s and 11.64s are all rated as being faster than the Race IQ par for a 10-furlong race on fast ground at Leopardstown. With a good trip early in the Derby, such speed will be a major weapon when it comes to the final four furlongs.

Much is made of the stamina test that Epsom provides, but the Derby is not won by stayers alone, it is won by horses who have speed, who can hold a good position and who can quicken in the final half mile with stamina only becoming relevant in the final furlong climb to the line. This is why it is the ultimate test of the thoroughbred and one of the greatest days in sport anywhere in the world.

THE Brigadier Gerard Stakes meeting at Sandown last week produced a couple of noteworthy performances according to the Race IQ data. This was a tremendous time performance from Almaqam who produced a career best under a change of tactics. Making the running under a well-judged ride brought out the best in this colt for the in-form Ed Walker team.

His win time of 2m 6.03s was the best time of the night with Race IQ Time Index of 7.9 out of 10 (meeting average 5.2). This time was achieved by Oisin Murphy getting the fractions right from the front.

Almaqam was slowly away, the fifth fastest in the race to reach 20mph (2.53s) and Murphy had to be aggressive on him to get him on the lead. This resulted in his opening two furlongs being faster than the Race IQ par at 13.98s and 11.63s. Thereafter, he got into a good rhythm on the lead able to metronomically produce even fractions, each furlong just over 12.00s. Being on the lead and running evenly producing an FSP of 100.68% (par: 101.32%) is the ultimate pace bias and is the reason that Almaqam produced a very good final time and the reason why he was able to repel Ombudsman (second) when challenged.

Ombudsman, unbeaten coming into this race, raced in fourth place and recorded faster splits than the winner in the third and second last furlongs which got him to the girth of the winner. But that effort took its toll in the final furlong with the winner recording a faster final split and seeing the race out better. Their final three-furlong numbers are:

Almaqam F8: 12.24s F9: 12.15s F10: 13.35s

Ombudsman F8: 12.07s F9: 12.06s F10: 13.49s

Almaqam, who has only had eight starts in his career, is ready to compete for top honours with the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot a likely target and the Coral Eclipse must also be on the agenda.

THE Listed Star Sport Heron Stakes at Sandown was won by Almaqam last season and Opera Ballo is another useful winner who won despite himself. He is a keen going sort who did remarkably well to win given his early exuberance, William Buick doing an excellent job to get him in behind horses after he threatened to race to the front through the first two furlongs. He has now won three of his four career starts, his only defeat coming in the 2000 Guineas where he was way too keen for his own good.

This was the second best time on the card with Opera Ballo clocking 1m 42.25s which equates to a Race IQ Time index of 6.6 (meeting average 5.2). The data does not reflect how keenly he ran early in the race, and it is testament to his raw ability that he was able to record an FSP of 101.29% (Par 101.10%) having used up plenty of energy. He quickened through the seventh furlong, recording the fastest split of 12.23s and he was also faster than all his rivals in the final furlong with a 13.05s furlong. If he is to fulfill his potential he will need to relax better, and a drop in trip is an option that his connections may consider.

In third place, Jackknife who was having just the second race of his career, shaped very well, losing momentum when hampered two furlongs out and not given a hard time thereafter. Still in sixth place with two furlongs to run, he ran on strongly when in the clear without being asked for maximum effort, recording a final two furlongs of 25.66s compared to the winner who clocked 25.29s. He would have given the winner plenty to think about had he got a clear run and is a horse to look out for wherever he goes next.