THE Betfred Derby Festival clearly has issues as to fan engagement. I was shocked to see the sight of the Hill devoid of the life and energy that has always accompanied and enhanced the Derby. It remains the most significant test of the thoroughbred in the world and will remain so, but we must not let it lose its soul.
The Coronation Stakes and the Derby are the centre of my attention with Jan Brueghel and Wayne Lordan taking all the plaudits. The data is clear that Jan Brueghel stamped himself as being top-class when winning the Group 1 Betfred Coronation Stakes at Epsom, without a doubt he put up the best performance of the meeting and any attempt to water it down by knocking the finishing effort of Calandagan is to miss the point completely.
Betfred Coronation Stakes (Group 1)
The ground on day one of the Betfred Derby Festival was as good to soft as evidenced by the Race IQ Time Index average for the meeting of 6.3 out of 10. By recording a score of 8.2, Jan Brueghel put up the best time performance of the meeting. His final time of 2m 36.13s was 2.60s under the Race IQ par for a mile and a half race at Epsom on ground described as good to soft.
This time was achieved by Continuous setting a strong even gallop attended closely by Jan Brueghel, on whom Ryan Moore was keen to commit for home half a mile out. His ninth furlong of 11.91s took him to the front and he kept the pressure on with a following couple of furlongs of 11.19s and 11.51s. This ensured that Calandagan had to work hard to get upsides, but then Jan Brueghel dug deep to record a marginally faster final furlong (12.08s) compared to the runner-up (12.10s)
Jan Brueghel is deceptive. He has a long raking stride recorded at its maximum here as being 8.22 metres, but he is anything but a slow stayer, he is a fast horse at a mile and a half. If he wasn’t, he would not have been able to record a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 111.40%.
Calandagan lost nothing in defeat. He is top-class and will win a Group 1. He hampered his chance by being very slow to gather momentum at the start and received a bump from Giavellotto. He was the slowest horse to reach 20mph taking 3.49s that compares to Jan Brueghel who took 3.09s.
He was on the back foot from this point onwards, a hostage to the Ballydoyle battle plan. Despite this slow start, he still showed that he retains all his ability. He ran faster than Jan Brueghel through six of the final seven furlongs, as he made up ground from the rear and he briefly hit the front before being outstayed in the final furlong. Their Sectionals are detailed below.
Final seven-furlong sectionals:
Jan Brueghel Calandagan
F7: 12.68s 12.64s (- 0.04s)
F8: 12.41s 12.12s (- 0.29s)
F9: 11.91s 11.87s (- 0.04s)
F10: 11.19s 11.18s (- 0.01s)
F11: 11.51s 11.33s (- 0.18s)
F12: 12.08s 12.10s (+0.02s)
This amounts to Calandagan being 0.54s faster than Jan Brueghel through the final six furlongs, but that speed was used to make up for his poor start and then he just ran out of petrol in the final furlong. This was a top-class effort in defeat, as were his defeats in the Sheema Classic and Juddmonte International, to suggest that he is a perennial bridesmaid or may need headgear is to fail to realise just how good Jan Brueghel is.
Calandagan will be a major player in the King George at Ascot, a track at which he destroyed the King Edward VII field last season. As for Jan Brueghel, he can lay claim to being one of the best 12-furlong horses in the world. Los Angeles may have become the King of Ballydoyle after the retirement of Kyprios, but this young pretender may well bring about a revolution.
Betfred Derby (Group 1)
THE ground on Derby Day was slower than on Oaks Day with the average Race IQ Time Index being 3.3. This number suggests that the ground was good to soft at the start of the meeting and then certainly soft as the rain got into the ground for the last three races. Lambourn recorded a time index of 3.5 with a final time of 2m 38.50s (2.37s slower than Jan Brueghel). He achieved this from the front, galloping his rivals into submission.
He was eighth fastest from the stalls, taking 2.78s to get to 20mph, and Wayne Lordan was aggressive on him through the first two furlongs to get him to the front. His first three furlongs were faster than the Race IQ Pars at 16.32s (Very Fast), 13.07s (Very Fast), 13.50s (Fast) and, given how hard he had to run whilst going uphill to get to the front, it is testament to his ability that he could still finish the race relatively strongly with an FSP of 109.16%. This suggests that he is a very strong stayer at 12 furlongs and will stay further.
Having established the lead, he was relentless, clocking even fractions and, even though he did not quicken in the style of an Auguste Rodin in 2023, he was able to gradually increase the pace from seven furlongs out. Incrementally upping the pace whilst having a positional advantage over his rivals, meant he could not be caught even if his four nearest pursuers clocked faster final three furlongs than him.
This gradual winding up of the pace through the final seven furlongs is testament to Wayne Lordan’s understanding of tempo and is detailed below.
F6: 13.77s
F7: 12.92s
F8: 12.17s
F9: 12.05s
F10: 12.02s
F11: 11.96s
F12: 12.79s
This even distribution of energy before tiring in the final furlong represents the archetypal front-running ride and, on this occasion, won Wayne Lordan the Derby. Amongst the vanquished, there were some disappointing performances. The first six in the Dante ran here and not one of them finished in the first 10. Delacroix was hampered early on and never figured, and The Lion in Winter was a bit keen early on and ran no sort of race.
The data does identify two horses with great credit. Four furlongs from home New Ground (fourth) and Tennessee Stud (third) raced in 10th and ninth respectively. Both finished strongly, recording faster final splits than the winner, but they could never land a blow.
Final three-furlong splits:
1st Lambourn: 36.77s (FSP 107.51%)
2nd Lazy Griff: 36.40s (FSP 109.06%)
3rd Tennessee Stud: 35.77s (111.11%)
4th New Ground: 35.71s (111.33%)
New Ground caught the eye. He was keen in the early part of the race and did not handle the track in the home straight, yet he ran the fastest final furlong of 12.54s (Par) with every other horse in the race recording slow or very slow sectionals when judged against par. He is a very interesting horse for later in the year on a more conventional track over this trip, with the Arc de Triomphe being a likely target.