WHILST there is much debate about the size of the crowd at the Curragh over the three days of the Irish Guineas Festival, one thing is for sure, those who were not in attendance missed a superb three days of sport. The meeting provided top-class performances that are data rich and there is no doubt that this was the best festival of racing that we have seen this season.
The 2000 and 1000 Guineas come under the analytical spotlight this week along with one horse to follow, whose data paints a positive picture even if the bare form of the race is unremarkable. In 2000 Guineas, it was time for the real Field Of Gold to turn up.
Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas (Group 1)
Many theories were put forward for Field Of Gold’s defeat in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. I was not one of those who looked to scapegoat Kieran Shoemark or blame the dip at Newmarket or indeed blame the ground or trip, instead I argued in this column that the horse let Shoemark down in that he did not quicken when asked, he seemed to lack an instant response and consequently could not catch the very useful Ruling Court.
At the Curragh last Sunday, he was much sharper and responded instantly when asked and crucially found more speed in the final three furlongs. A comparison of his finishing efforts in both races is not the promised land of analysis because there was a steadier early tempo at Newmarket, but they make for interesting reading and prove that the real Field Of Gold showed up at the Curragh.
Field Of Gold Final 3 Furlongs:
Newmarket: Curragh:
F6: 11.36s F6: 11.11s
F7: 11.19s F7: 10.76s
F8: 12.13s F8: 11.73s
He reached a top speed of 40.00mph at Newmarket, but found more speed at the Curragh hitting a high of 41.82mph, which is a career best. The data is unequivocal that Field Of Gold was faster and sharper at the Curragh and found a tremendous turn of foot through the seventh furlong to record that 10.76s split. His final two furlongs gave him a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 107.35% compared to the 104.71% that he recorded at Newmarket. This was the highest FSP that he has recorded in his career, with that 10.76s split the fastest furlong that he has ever run.
This was a sharper and faster version of Field Of Gold than the one we saw at Newmarket; speculation as to why is pure guesswork. He will now head to Royal Ascot for the St James’s Palace Stakes for which he is the rightful favourite. Whilst it has been suggested that he may be better over the mile and a quarter of the Eclipse, there can be little doubt that he has plenty of speed and seems to be improving and, as such, top-class races at a mile this summer will pose no problem.
Tattersalls Irish 1000 Guineas (Group 1)
THIS was a visually stunning performance from Lake Victoria, her turn of foot decisive in a steadily-run race. This was not as good a time performance as was produced by Field Of Gold, but that is a function of the pace of the race rather than a reflection on her ability.
The ground at the Curragh on Sunday was faster than on Saturday. Every race on the card produced a time that was faster than the Race IQ Par and the average time index value for the meeting was 9.1 out of 10 compared to 7.2 on Saturday, which is indicative of good to firm ground.
The early gallop in the 1000 Guineas was steady with California Dreamer taking the field along in fractions rated as very slow as against the Race IQ Par as detailed below.
F1: 14.84s
F2: 12.09s
F3: 12.39s
F4: 12.58s
After four furlongs, the pace quickened with Lake Victoria handily placed to utilise her sharp turn of foot. Her splits through the final four furlongs are impressive and shot her from fourth place to first recording an FSP of 111.70% (Race IQ Par 102.23%).
Lake Victoria final four furlong splits:
(Rating against Race IQ Par)
F5: 11.76s
F6: 10.83s
F7: 10.47s
F8: 11.10s
Her penultimate furlong of 10.47s and the 10.83s of her sixth furlong were the fastest furlongs recorded over the three days of the meeting, highlighting just how much speed this filly has. That she was able to sprint past California Dreamer, who got an easy lead and finished the race with splits of 10.68s and 11.46s, is testament to her raw ability.
This was a very different filly to the one that turned up at Newmarket for the 1000 Guineas, improving dramatically for that run, a trait that has become synonymous with Aidan O’Brien and augurs well for the Lion in Winter at Epsom.
Lake Victoria is unlikely to meet Desert Flower in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot as that filly is heading to the Oaks and it is hard to envisage her tasting defeat at Ascot after this electric performance.
THE form of this race is not worth a hill of beans, but when analysing a horse’s performance, we should not focus on the standard of horses beaten, but rather how fast that horse ran to secure victory. The data is very positive about Fingerpaint, who looks to be another useful recruit from the Dermot Weld stable. She is a horse to follow even if there were some more high-profile and classier performances over the weekend.
In a slowly-run race that in terms of pace could be described as a race of two halves, Fingerpaint found herself in a poor position a few lengths off the pace in fifth place after four furlongs. She then displayed a remarkable turn of foot for a debutante to run down those more prominently ridden and win going away.
Her finishing effort is aptly described by her FSP of 111.65% (Par: 104.41%). She recorded two sub-11.00s furlongs through the final half-mile and was the only filly in the race able to do so. Her final three-furlong splits rated as against the Race IQ Par are below.
F5: 10.93s (Very Fast)
F6: 10.76s (Very fast)
F7: 11.87s (Very Fast)
To be able to run this fast amid inexperience on her debut and catch horses in front of her who were not stopping is noteworthy and indicative of a filly who could cope in a much higher grade.
Her maximum stride length in the race was 8.11 metres, which was in the top 5% of horses at the Curragh over the three days of the festival and, whilst this is not always an indicator of a top-class horse, it is certainly an indicator of raw ability.
She has a decent pedigree being by Kingman out of a dam who is a sister to Set Piece, who won the Grade 1 Arlington Million at Colonial Downs in 2023. Although she has no entries at the moment, she looks sure to find herself in pattern company this summer.