IN top-class horse racing, small margins matter whether they be a horse getting a bad trip, causing interference, chasing too strong a gallop or racing on ground that is different to the described conditions, and data analysis of the race times at Leopardstown on Saturday suggests that the ground was faster than advertised.

The ground was described as good and that remained the going description throughout the nine-race card. This was not backed up by the data, which suggests it was at least good to firm if not faster.

All bar two races produced a time that was faster than a good-ground par time, as detailed below, and this is backed up by the meeting average Race iQ Time Index that came in at 8.1 out of 10 - on genuine good ground, that figure would have been in the 5.0-6.0 range.

Race iQ Time Index Values and Par Time comparison:

1. Maire Rua: 8.5 (-2.25s vs Par)

2. Kraismir: 9.0 (-2.41s vs Par)

3. Darkness Falls: 9.7 (-3.15s vs Par)

4. Arabian Crown: 7.4 (-2.38s vs Par)

5. Blue Bolt: 9.2 (-2.27s vs Par)

6. Quddwah: 6.5 (-0.57s vs Par)

7. Hotazhell: 9.2 ( -3.33s vs Par)

8. Immutable: 6.9 (-1.85s vs Par)

9. Rebel Wave: 6.9 (-0.97s vs Par)

The argument that good horses racing in competitive races will create fast times is an old one, but it holds no water at all when the Race iQ par times are based on the par expectation for the class of race on the ground as described.

For example, Hotazhell produced the best time of the meeting in a time that was 3.33s faster than what could be expected for this class of race on good ground. The par expectation for a firmer ground time is 2m 4.40s and he was 1.87s faster than that. There can be no other conclusion other than the ground was at least good to firm.

Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1)

The fast final time of 2m 2.53s was produced in a race where the pace was strong, but not as furious as the early gallop that we witnessed in the Juddmonte International at York. This meant that both Hotazhell (first) and Wimbledon Hawkeye (second) were able to produce faster than par final quarter-miles, as evidenced by the winner being able to complete the final three furlongs with a Finishing Speed Percentage of 102.52%, that was faster than the par figure of 101.51%.

Hotazhell quickened smartly with a faster than par penultimate furlong of 11.49s, which was his fastest of the race, and he backed that up with a fast 12.26s final furlong to finish the race strongly. To an extent, he got first run on Wimbledon Hawkeye, who was the fastest horse through the final furlong in the race clocking a split of 12.00s, but he was unable to run down Hotazhell, who had raced closer to the pace throughout.

Whilst the strong pace ensured a fine final time and no hiding place for any of the runners, there are legitimate excuses to be made for the three who fought out an attritional Juddmonte International on easier ground at York, not least that race may have left its mark on all of them.

Firstly, the winner of that race, Item, found everything happening too quickly on the fast ground here and looks ready for 12 furlongs. His win at York was courtesy of the race becoming a stamina test - this was more of a test of speed and it caught him out.

He was able to win at York with an FSP of 101.04% and he produced a very similar finish here with an FSP of 101.66%, but whilst grinding it out at York worked, a similar finishing effort here was not good enough against faster horses. I don’t think he ran below form; he just wasn’t fast enough to get involved.

Almaqam, who had finished second at York, ran his fastest furlong through the second furlong, with the three who finished in front of him firing their quickest splits in the penultimate furlong.

Therefore, he used up precious early energy to negate his wide draw in stall eight. He stayed on well enough in the final three furlongs with an FSP of 101.39%, but he couldn’t muster the speed of the first three and the suspicion is that he wants easier ground to give his best.

Constitution River jumped smartly, he was the fastest horse to 20mph (2.31s) and, as a result, raced a bit keenly as Ryan Moore got him in behind his pacemakers.

A slower break from the stalls and getting cover straight away would certainly help him. Despite hanging quite badly to his left, he quickened through the penultimate furlong to such an extent that his 11.46s (fast) furlong was faster than the winner and the second, but he could not sustain that speed in the final furlong, where Hotazhell, Wimbledon Hawkeye, Almaqam and even Item were faster than him.

He did not appear to get home, and the reasons may be multi-faceted, but from a data perspective, he needs to relax better in the early part of the race to allow him to use his speed at the business end.

Only Hawk Mountain, who was rousted to the lead, was faster than Constitution River through the first furlong (by 1/100th of a second) and this early exertion probably had a knock-on effect in the final furlong. He remains a very talented racehorse.

A Boy Named Susie was badly hampered by the winner and trainer Donnacha O’Brien was correct to state that the sectionals suggested he was just gathering momentum when severely hampered.

He was the fastest horse in the race through the penultimate furlong, with a fast 11.33s split, his subsequent 12.47s final furlong a product of the interference he suffered.

Sun dazzles with fast final furlong

Moyglare Stud Stakes (Group 1)

THE ground at the Curragh on Sunday was described as yielding (good to yielding in places). The average time index on the day came in at 6.6, which suggests that the ground was closer to good than yielding.

The time average was bolstered by outstanding time performances from Thundering On, Scandinavia and Orandi - all of whom raced on the round course, which may have ridden a little quicker than the straight course.

Time Index Values and Par time comparison:

1. Coul Angel: 6.4 (-0.66s vs Par)

2. Star Of State: 5.2 (+0.41s vs Par)

3. Sun Goddess: 5.3 (+0.37s vs Par)

4. Commanche Brave: 7.0 (-0.98s vs par)

5. Folsom Blues: 5.0 (+0.69s vs Par)

6. Scandinavia: 7.8 (-3.03s vs Par)

7. Thundering On: 8.4 (-3.12s vs Par)

8. Orandi: 7.7 (-2.37s vs Par)

Sun Goddess had impressed when winning on her previous start at York, overcoming serious trouble in running and impressing with a fast final furlong (12.37s) that saw her win easily.

That strong finish suggested she would stay this seven-furlong trip and she had no problem in doing so, whilst showing speed in abundance.

This race was not run at a furious gallop and Sun Goddess, who was held up in fifth place, was at a slight positional disadvantage, but her raw speed saw her surge home to record an FSP of 105.55% (Par: 103.22%).

She quickened sharply with a fifth furlong of 11.44s (Fast), followed by a sixth of 11.25s (Fast). She finished the race with a final furlong of 12.47s, with Green Empress in second only managing to record a split of 13.07s.

Not only can she quicken, her long stride, of which the average maximum stride length per race is 8.06 metres, suggests she will be able to cope with a mile and, along with Saturday’s winner Darkness Falls, is a very exciting prospect with next year’s 1000 Guineas very firmly on her agenda.

Betfred St Leger Stakes (Group 1)

THE St Leger meeting at Doncaster this year will rightfully be remembered for Saffie Osborne’s landmark success in the big race for Joseph O’Brien on Highwayman, who shaped like a very strong stayer at the trip and may be a Cup horse next season.

The ground last Saturday at Doncaster was described as good (good to soft in places) and that description is backed up by the average time index for the meeting of 5.6.

Time Index Values and Par Time

comparison:

1. Al Jabbar: 4.2 (+1.72s vs Par)

2. Desert Castle: 3.4 (+1.45s vs Par)

3. Air Force One: 6.4 (-0.42s vs Par)

4. More Thunder: 5.2 (+0.25s vs Par)

5. Highwayman: 7.1 (-1.62s vs Par)

6. Scoville: 6.9 (-1.06s vs Par)

7. Thunder Run: 6.0 (-0.43s vs Par)

Highwayman posted the best time of the day comparatively and is an exciting young stayer, who is unbeaten in three starts since being stepped up in trip from a mile.

The first half-mile of this race was steadily run, but the pace thereafter was a strong one and, from six furlongs out, the pace gradually increased - meaning that this was a strong test of stamina.

The gradual increase in the pace of the race can be seen by looking at Highwayman’s final six-furlong sectionals, with his final two being faster than par, showing that he hit the line strongly:

F9: 12.88s

F10: 12.62s

F11: 12.21s

F12: 11.92s

F13: 11.89s

F14: 11.57s

F15: 12.29s

These final three furlongs gave him an FSP of 105.93%, which was very close to the par expectation of 105.58%. This shows that the gallop overall wasn’t too strong or too slow - in short, it tested the ability to see the trip out strongly.

Enceladus shaped very well in second place. Having travelled well, he finished the race strongly to beat the others by four and a quarter lengths and more, and it was no disgrace to not see the race out quite as well as the progressive winner (12.29s Highwayman vs 12.43s Enceladus).

Coolmore America ‘Justify’ Matron Stakes (Fillies and Mares Group 1)

ANOTHER fast time courtesy of the quick ground and an even gallop. Blue Bolt completed the mile in a time of 1m 38.11s, continuing her progression that will surely take her to a clash with the colts at Ascot in October.

The one caveat to that would be the easier ground she may encounter at Ascot, because this performance showed her to be a fast filly with a sharp turn of foot and anything that could blunt her speed will take away her most potent weapon.

Blue Bolt quickened through the final two furlongs producing an FSP of 105.14%, which was 4.06% above par. In so doing, both of her final two furlongs were faster than the par expectation. They are recorded as being 11.34s and 11.99s and she was the only horse in the race able to dip under 12.00s in the final furlong. Whilst her three closest pursuers also produced fast finishes, they could not match her speed.

There were no excuses for the vanquished, although Precise was a disappointment, unable to quicken like those who finished in front of her, a busy schedule perhaps catching up with her.

HKJC World Pool Golden Fleece Stakes (Group 1)

A TIME of 1m 51.73s saw Darkness Falls record the highest time index (9.7) at the meeting - meaning that, comparatively, this was the best time of the day.

In his two starts prior to this at the Curragh and at Leopardstown, he showed plenty of speed. Despite defeat on debut at this track, he quickened smartly to record the fastest final two furlongs in the race. He then went on to win at the Curragh, where he ran a very fast 11.14s penultimate furlong. On this occasion, he displayed that he has another string to his bow, in that he can cope with a strongly-run race, where winning was not conditional on a sharp turn of foot, but open to staying strongly and being able to run evenly. His FSP of 100.13% was close to the par of 101.85% and he achieved this, not by quickening as he did on his previous two starts, but by seeing the nine-furlong trip out very strongly.

He was the only horse to run under 12.00s in the penultimate furlong (11.95s) and the only horse to beat 13.00s in the final furlong (12.67s). This was a strong staying performance that saw him draw four and a quarter lengths clear of his rivals - all of whom ran slower than par final furlongs.

Aidan O’Brien intimated that Darkness Falls may not be done for the season yet, with the Breeders’ Cup and other races under consideration. Wherever he goes, he will be hard to beat, and the Derby is surely the perfect target.