LAST week, I looked at the first day of the Sky Bet Ebor meeting and highlighted the taking performance of Ombudsman in a chaotic Juddmonte International. He produced a smart turn of foot, producing the fastest finish of the meeting with a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 109.56%. He was ridden by William Buick, who had a superb week. He operated at an impressive 29% with six wins from his 21 rides. The odds only expected him to have three winners and, in riding twice as many, he recorded an impressive A/E of 1.95 (Actual winners as against expected winners).
Conditions on the first day of the meeting were hard to assess given the strong headwind in the home straight. The average Race IQ Time Index on the day was 2.8, which is a lot lower than could be expected on ground described as Good to Firm (Good in places). The scores were much higher for the rest of the meeting as the wind abated and were commensurate with ground that was Good.
Race IQ Time Index Scores:
Day 1: 2.8
Day 2: 4.9
Day 3: 5.6
Day 4: 5.3
The meeting produced a plethora of interesting data and analysis.
Sky Bet City of York Stakes (Group 1)
Never So Brave has won three of his four starts for Andrew Balding, progressing from a handicap to win this Group 1 in gritty fashion. He can lay claim to being one of the most improved horses in training.
This was a strongly-run race, courtesy of Quinault who, performing his customary front-running style, took the field along through a fast first half-mile with his first two furlongs of 14.27s and 10.70s rated faster than the Race IQ par. This meant that the final three furlongs were more about who could keep going best rather than quicken.
Never So Brave was the slowest horse to reach 20mph from the stalls (2.78s) and was briefly pushed along by Oisin Murphy to race in mid-division. He got the fractions spot on here, with Never So Brave recording par splits for each of the seven furlongs - meaning that his FSP of 98.78% was almost bang on the Race IQ expectation of 99.12%.
Lake Forest finished well from the rear of the field having saved energy by racing off the pace. His final two furlongs of 23.88s was 0.11s faster than the winner, but he did not do his running in the heat of the race as Never So Brave did and would by no means be sure to reverse the form should they meet again. Nonetheless this was a good effort from Lake Forest, who has never been the most consistent, but has now put together two decent runs in a row having finished second in the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood.
Don’t give up
After another defeat this season for Rosallion (fourth) it is tempting to give up on him, but the data is positive about this performance for several reasons. Firstly, he had to cope with a poor draw. He was drawn widest of all in stall 11, which according to the Race IQ draw bias metric was a disadvantage of 0.33 of a length, effectively the worst draw. He broke slowly being the sixth fastest to reach 20mph taking 2.61s.
Thereafter he was forced to race wide round the bend and got no cover at all. Despite this, he showed he retains plenty of ability with a move from ninth place to fifth through the fourth and fifth furlongs.
He was the fastest horse in the race through F4 with a sectional of 10.99s and then second fastest through F5 with an 11.04s. Both splits were faster than the winner, but the winner had been better placed throughout and Rosallion, who kept on well enough to record the third best final two furlongs in the race, can be rated as better than the bare result given his poor draw and the trip he got. A return to a mile in a race where he can get cover and then utilise his speed late in the race will see him back in the winner’s enclosure this season. He has an entry in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot in October.
Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1)
ASFOORA came good after seemingly needing her first run at Royal Ascot before facing unsuitable soft ground at Goodwood. The draw over five furlongs at York is historically favourable to horses drawn low and the first four home were drawn in stalls 5,3,6,8. The Race IQ draw bias statistics highlighted that from stall five, Asfoora had an advantage of 0.35 lengths in jumping and she duly took advantage, getting a perfect tow through the race from Night Raider before storming clear for a decisive length-and-a-quarter success.
She was rated evenly by Oisin Murphy with each of her five sectionals being rated as par, meaning that she was able to sustain her speed for the whole race and record an FSP of 99.37%, which is close to the par number at York over this trip of 100.04%. The sustained speed that she showed from a prominent position at halfway was too much for those that also raced close to the pace.
Asfoora had been the 6/4 favourite when defeated in this race last year, but went off at 11/1 this time with a 100/1 shot in the shape of Ain’t Nobody finishing second and, in so doing, caught the eye as one to follow for the rest of the season.
Ain’t Nobody was compromised by a slow start. He was the 12th fastest horse in the race to reach 20mph, taking 2.72s which was 0.41s slower than Asfoora. This slow start meant that he raced in 16th place and was still in that position with two furlongs to go, but then stormed home recording 22.71s for the final two furlongs which was 0.39s faster than Asfoora and was the fastest final two furlongs produced by any horse at York last week. This represented a return to form for Ain’t Nobody, possibly helped by the application of first time cheekpieces. Whilst he finished this race strongly and looks to be well treated off a mark of 99 in the Ayr Gold Cup, both of his career wins have come at five furlongs, but you would not blame connections for having a crack at that valuable handicap on September 20th.
IN recording a final time of 1m9.79s, Lifeplan recorded a Race IQ Time Index of 7.1, which was the fastest on the day and the third best score at the meeting behind Northern Ticker and Minnie Hauk. He jumped smartly from the stalls and was the fastest horse in the race to reach 20mph, taking just 2.16s, this was the fourth fastest of the whole meeting.
He travelled powerfully in what was a strongly-run race and was fastest through each of the final two furlongs, where he reeled in the runner-up who had a two-length advantage approaching the final furlong. His final two furlongs of 11.10s and 11.89s were both faster than the Race IQ par giving him an FSP of 101.20% with the Par being 98.63%. This change of gear in a strongly-run race was impressive and saw him pull a length clear of the runner-up, who in turn was five lengths clear of the disappointing Do Or Do Not in third.
This was a career highlight for trainer Declan Carroll and jockey Zak Wheatley and this powerfully-built son of Kodi Bear may yet bring them more success this season. He is quoted at 8/1 for the Middle Park, which is a much bigger price than would be the case if he were with more fashionable connections.
WHEN looking at the Race IQ Time Indices for the whole meeting, I was surprised to see that the best time of the meeting belonged to Northern Ticker, who won a Class 2 sprint handicap over six furlongs. He recorded a Time Index of 7.3 (Meeting average on the day 5.3).
This does not mean that he is a better horse than Ombudsman or Minnie Hauk, but it does mean that his time relative to the grade of race on the ground he encountered over six furlongs was one that was exceptional for the grade, and he should be followed.
Northern Ticker is a most progressive lightly-raced three-year-old sprinter, who looks likely to step out of handicap company when his trainer wants. Before then, he may tackle the Ayr Gold Cup for which he will carry a 5lb penalty.
This was a strongly-run sprint with the winner recording an FSP of 97.69%, which was just under the Race IQ par of 98.63%. As the figures suggest, Northern Ticker was getting tired close home and, in the end, he just clung on from his stable companion Commanche Falls.
That does not highlight just how strongly Northern Ticker travelled whilst posting strong fractions. His second furlong of 10.61s was followed by a 10.69s and a 10.93s, which took him to the front and, although he only won by a head and a neck, he beat every horse in his group comfortably with his nearest pursuer from that group finishing in ninth place overall.
The impressive speed he showed can be quantified by him hitting a top speed of 42.64mph in the second furlong, which was only 0.24mph slower than the top speed hit by Asfoora in the Nunthorpe.
Michael Dods does very well with his type of horse, and another big handicap sprint could come his way this season.
THE Clipper Handicap was won by Bullet Point who went on to finish unplaced in the Strensall Stakes a couple of days later. Nonetheless, he is a horse to remain positive about. The quick turnaround seemingly catching him out and he is a horse to bear in mind for the Cambridgeshire.
In behind, the Kevin Ryan-trained Apiarist put up an eye-catching performance. Apiarist is a horse to follow this autumn after a 10th-place finish here in a race that should work out well. He had shaped well on his previous start at Galway when fourth in a handicap to Princess Child, but was far too free to do himself justice in this steadily-run race, the return to a mile possibly contributing to that.
Despite pulling hard through the first five furlongs, which were run slower than the Race IQ par, he was still able to finish the race relatively strongly recording an FSP of 104.32%, which is faster than the par of 101.46%. Both of his final two furlongs were rated faster than the Race IQ par and it is to his credit that he finished as well as he did.
He has decent form on a synthetic surface and on soft ground on turf and won at York on heavy ground last October. When he encounters such conditions again this autumn, he is a horse to be interested in - particularly back at seven furlongs, where a stronger gallop would help him settle. He does not hold any near to hand entries, but is a horse to keep a close eye on.