ALBERT Einstein famously said that “Imagination is more important than knowledge”. He refers to the fact that knowledge is limited to our level of understanding whereas imagination allows for limitless opportunities.
When it comes to his namesake who made his seasonal reappearance at the Curragh last Saturday our imagination had been running wild after his trainer’s recent bullish reports about him, but data in sport is about what we know and his effort at the Curragh was underwhelming, to say the least.
It is early days in his three-year-old career and we could, if inclined, let our imagination take us to the Commonwealth Cup this summer, but on the face of it that is a big leap of faith to make, unless you cling to one important piece of data which I will get to. But first the negative stuff from what was a disappointing start to Albert Einstein’s season.
The ground at the Curragh, according to the final times of the eight races, was heavy. The meeting average Race iQ time index was a lowly 4.7 out of 10, suggestive of testing conditions. This race produced a slow overall time of 1m 33.71s which was +3.07s above the Race iQ par.
This poor time was courtesy of the first half mile being run faster than par with all of the runners paying for their early exertions through the final two furlongs. The winner Big Gossey recorded a finishing speed percentage (FSP) of 96.86% with the Race iQ Par being 104.41%.
Albert Einstein shaped as if he will be better for the run and, given how keen he was even though the gallop was relatively strong, he looks to be more of a sprinter than a miler.
Excuses?
He was fourth fastest into stride, taking 3.07s to reach 20mph and thereafter made little headway from his midfield sit in sixth place and at no stage did he manage to run faster than any other horse in the race.
His top speed of 36.3mph was reached in the fifth furlong with seven of his nine rivals recording a top speed higher than him at various points through the race. His FSP of 95.91% was comprised of a final two furlongs of 28.17s which can be compared to the winner’s final two-furlong time of 27.61s.
There is nothing in his sectional data that suggests he was better than the bare result and, in order that we don’t lose faith in him completely, a data comparison with his efforts last season is required. That enables us to factor in the heavy ground along with his early exuberance and the ‘needing the run’ excuse.
Both of his wins last season came on good ground and on both occasions he showed a lot more speed. At Naas he hit a top speed of 40.94mph which was 4.64mph faster than he managed last weekend. When he won the Group 3 Marble Hill Stakes at the Curragh, he ran even faster, stopping the clock at a rapid 41.98mph.
That he could not run anywhere near as fast as he is capable of has to be because of the ground. Even if he was keen and needed the run, we could have expected him to flash more speed; that he didn’t was surely due to conditions.
This theory is backed up if we analyse his stride pattern throughout his career. Last season - on better ground - he displayed a much higher maximum and average stride length which suggests that he may have not handled the conditions last weekend.
Maximum stride length:
Curragh 28/03/26: 7.10m
Curragh 25/05/25: 8.13m
Naas 10/05/25: 7.75m
Average stride length:
Curragh 28/03/26: 6.95m
Curragh 25/05/26: 7.65m
Naas 10/05/25: 7.33m
This stride data makes it perfectly plausible to suggest that he did not handle conditions and that he should be given another chance under faster conditions which will extenuate his main asset which is his speed.
For now, we have a scintilla of hope that the real Albert Einstein will emerge when he faces much faster conditions, probably over six furlongs even though his connections are still considering a 2000 Guineas tilt.
SHARING the headlines with Albert Einstein last week was the seemingly endless chat and column inches devoted to Constitution Hill. He has now been given a mark of 101 by the handicapper, a mark that is based more on his Southwell win than on what he achieved at Kempton. The data is clear that in two runs he has displayed plenty of speed and, as such, a drop in trip may be the astute move.
Those that believe his mark makes him a live contender for the Ebor at York are correct; he would be a contender if he got the trip, which is doubtful on what he has done so far.
His Kempton race was a slowly run affair, producing a slow time of 2m 34.30s which equates to a Race iQ time index of 5.2 out of 10. Constitution Hill quickened smartly through the final half mile with each of those furlongs rated as faster than par. His most impressive furlong was his penultimate one where he recorded a split of 11.14s. This bettered his fastest furlong at Southwell which was 11.39s.
In both races he showed plenty of speed recording an FSP at Southwell of 109.68% and 111.24% at Kempton. These races showcased him in his best light, enabling him to flash his speed, neither tested his stamina for 12 furlongs on the flat.
A test at the trip may come should he contest the John Porter at Newbury, but a good run there would surely destroy his handicap mark and. Connections should have a re-think now which should include a discussion about dropping him in trip to 10 furlongs.
THE 2000 Guineas looks to be wide open. Gstaad and Albert Einstein were erroneously removed from the race this week and while they may be supplemented, another live contender for the race emerged at Kempton last Saturday in the shape of Kings Trail who could be one of two runners for Charlie Appleby. Kings Trail is unbeaten in two starts over a mile at Kempton and a tilt at the 2000 Guineas is on the agenda. He quickened smartly on his debut hitting 40.30mph while running the final three furlongs much faster than par. He again flashed his speed last Saturday with his final two furlongs of 11.15s and 11.73s being rated as faster than par and he hit a faster top speed of 41.03mph. This gave him an FSP of 107.33%.
Notable Speech won this race before going on to 2000 Guineas glory in 2024 for the same stable and it would be no surprise if Kings Trail were to follow the same path. He is currently trading at 16/1 which is an appealing each way price, given that we are unsure of the make-up of the race.