THE Dublin Racing Festival provided us with plenty of fascinating data, headlined by Majborough and Fact To File, yet the two days seemed to pose more questions than answers as far as Cheltenham is concerned.
The Gold Cup picture remains a foggy one with Fact To File having been taken out of the race and requiring a supplementary entry and the Champion Hurdle picture is as blurred, after the defeat of Lossiemouth, which makes her participation in the Mares’ Hurdle a more likely option.
At least Majborough turned up and produced the performance that he had been threatening. After all, the data has always been positive about him, he just needed the focus of a pair of cheekpieces to engage top gear in a career where he has found things all too easy,such is his rare talent.
The final times over the two days of the festival were very slow in accordance with the going description of heavy. The jockeys rode to the conditions and therefore we did see some relatively fast finishes. The best final time of the meeting was achieved by Majborough who completed the two miles and a furlong of the Dublin Chase in 4m 17.2s which was 11.10s above the Racing Post standard.
Scintillating
For context, this was exactly six seconds faster than Romeo Coolio in the Irish Arkle which given the conditions equates to 24 lengths. This neatly sums up the scintillating performance that Majborough produced, and he has not received the praise that he warrants.
For many the taste of humble pie was perhaps too much to stomach. It’s time to acknowledge that he is a good jumper and can do so at a pace that he can sustain longer than most.
Mighty Maj is sensational
Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1)
THIS race was a triumph for data over visual impression. While it was popular to believe that Majborough could not jump well, the data has always been positive about him.
His Jump Index values have always shown that he has been quick and efficient through the jumping envelope, even if it looks like he has made a mistake or lost concentration. His career values over fences give him a lifetime jump index of 8.9 out of 10 and this season in three starts, he has recorded 9.0 at Cork 9.1 at Leopardstown and 9.5 in the Dublin Chase.
Even if he looked a bit wayward at Cork and laboured at Leopardstown in December, he was still very fast over his fences and this time, with the cheekpieces providing focus, he was electric. He gained 20.94 lengths on Marine Nationale (second) who recorded a jump index of 6.6 and may not have been suited by the heavy conditions, but he is not as good a jumper as Majborough and he found himself under behind the bridle from the outset given the strong early pace.
Sensational performance
It was not just Majborough’s jumping that made this a sensational performance, it was the fact that he could set a strong pace and maintain it well enough to pull 19 lengths clear of a horse as good as Marine Nationale. The first mile was very strongly run with Majborough fighting off Solness for the lead and clocking 1m55.7s. This was 3.74s faster than El Fabiolo who set a strong gallop in the Irish Champion Hurdle.
Mark Walsh was then able to ease of the gas a little for the next seven furlongs before quickening through the penultimate furlong with a 13.99s split and a final furlong of 14.96s.
This finishing effort off a strong gallop gave Majborough a finishing speed percentage (FSP) of 99.63% which is remarkable given how fast he went for the first mile.
Brighterdaysahead was able to record a slower first mile in the Irish Champion Hurdle and conserve energy but still couldn’t finish as well as Majborough did with an FSP of 94.13%. Majborough was 4.38s (16 lengths) faster than Brighterdaysahead through the final four furlongs which, in the context of how both races were run, is remarkable and the data is clear that we witnessed a sensational performance.
Excuses can be made for the vanquished, but they were thrashed out of sight by a rare talent who will be impossible to beat if he turns up in the same form at Cheltenham.
Timeless Sash Windows Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD’s performance should not be downgraded because her data does not compare favourably with Majborough.
A strongly-run race courtesy of El Fabiolo led to the final time being 4m 4.20s which was 14.20s above the Racing Post standard. The strong gallop led to a slow finish with finishing speed percentages well below 100%. Indeed, none of the runners were able to record a final furlong faster than 18.00 seconds in a slow-motion finish.
1st Brighterdaysahead: 94.13%
2nd Lossiemouth: 94.28%
3rd Poniros: 93.89%
This was a strong test of stamina at the trip with the unrelenting gallop seeing the first two pull well clear of the rest. The pace of the race in the heavy ground suited the winner who is a strong stayer at the trip. She travelled well and jumped efficiently recording a Jump Index of 8.9 which is in accordance with her career value of 8.4 indicating that she has always been a good jumper.
By contrast Lossiemouth did not travel with her usual zest, carrying her head to one side at times and not jumping with her usual fluency. She recorded a Jump Index of 7.8 (career 8.0) and lost 3.68 lengths on Brighterdaysahead with her jumping. This is the first time in her career that she has recorded a sub 100% FSP and, whilst the pace of the race and conditions did not lend themselves to a fast finish, this must go down as a sub-par effort from her.
Champion chance
It would seem probable that Lossiemouth will head to the Mares’ Hurdle now, but she would have a huge chance in the Champion Hurdle given the speed that she has shown in the past on better ground.
We should not forget that when she won the Mares’ Hurdle last year, she hit a top speed of 37.32mph, and her fastest furlong was 12.31s with an FSP of 110.10%. Should connections go down the Champion Hurdle route she would be a massive player.
Poniros did not shape too badly in third, given that it was his seasonal reappearance.
This was only his third start over hurdles, and he put up a career-best jumping effort with a jump index of 8.4 and he was also the fastest horse in the race through the final furlong with a split of 18.34s.
There will be more to come from him and, although he would need to improve to be a player in the Champion Hurdle in a year where the race is not looking particularly strong, he could become a player for a place at least.
Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
THE data prize for overcoming adversity goes to Talk The Talk who made amends for his final flight fall at Leopardstown over Christmas with the promise of plenty more to come.
Talk The Talk came into this race with doubts about his jumping but, under a patient ride, he jumped well, recording a jump index of 8.6 which is the best of his career so far. This slick jumping was needed given the positional disadvantage that he had to overcome in a slowly-run race.
This race was run at a crawl with Talk The Talk held up in ninth place. Ballyfad, who finished second, made the running and King Rasko Grey, who finished third, raced in third and both were favoured by the run of the race yet Talk The Talk was able to run them down by producing the fastest finish of the two-day meeting.
His final four furlongs of 57.03s gave him an FSP of 113.10% which meant he was able to catch and defeat Ballyfad, who was not stopping, as evidenced by his FSP of 111.60%.
With two furlongs to run Talk The Talk was 0.65s (2.6 lengths) behind Ballyfad but Talk The Talk was able to bridge the gap ,finishing the race in 13.17s and 14.75s.
Through that penultimate furlong, he hit a top speed of 34.62mph which is the highest speed recorded by any horse at the DRF and it was that speed that got him out of trouble which was afforded to him by being held up in a steadily run race.
If ever a horse is worth a sectional upgrade, then it is Talk The Talk whose speed may be seen to better effect on spring ground at Cheltenham and as such he looks a bit overpriced at 5/1 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
Goffs Irish Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1)
IF the fastest finish over the two days belonged to Talk The Talk the slowest can be attributed to Romeo Coolio who scrambled to success in the Irish Arkle.
Just three runners, but plenty of substance given that Downmexicoway - who was beaten 22 lengths in third - had won a Gowran Park handicap chase off a mark of 134 when last seen.
All the data for this race should be seen in the context of Romeo Coolio giving 6lb to the very useful Kargese in second place. I would argue that the data suggests that Kargese shaped like the best horse at the trip, with Romeo Coolio further underlining that a step back up to at least two and a half miles will suit him.
Although there is an argument to suggest that Romeo Coolio idled in the closing stages, allowing Kargese to get within a neck, the data suggests that they were both very tired as evidenced by their FSPs.
1st Romeo Coolio 92.83%
2nd Kargese 92.67%
Kargese made the running, dictating a strong gallop and she briefly threatened to skip clear of the winner turning for home, something she may have been able to do on better ground. He eventually got to her with a faster penultimate furlong of 17.10s compared to her 17.74s before she rallied with a final furlong that was 0.47s quicker than him.
Whether he was idling or not, this was an attritional contest that was not about speed, the test at the trip ideally suiting the winner.
Things could have been different because although Kargese jumped better than Romeo Coolio overall, her mistake at the last cost her vital momentum without which she would have won.
Outstanding score
Romeo Coolio jumped well with a Jump Index of 8.2. However, Kargese was better with an outstanding score of 9.2 but she reserved her worst jump for the last fence where she lost 8.69mph compared to Romeo Coolio, who lost 6.12mph.
She took 3.07s to recover her entry speed into the fence whereas Romeo Coolio took just 0.5s. It is fair to say that this tired jump at the last cost her Grade 1 glory although I doubt that it will be long before she makes up for that error.
Kargese is a big player in the Arkle carrying the mares’ allowance for which she is generally available at 5/1 and she would have a better chance than Romeo Coolio who would require soft ground and a fierce gallop at the trip.
Gannon’s City Recovery and Recycling Services Juvenile Hurdle (Grade1)
NARCISO Has is rightfully favourite for the Triumph Hurdle after his all-the-way success in the Grade 1 juvenile last Monday but it was Selma De Vary in second place who caught the eye.
Narciso Has made all the running and was rated evenly by Mark Walsh recording an FSP of 102.17%. He jumped well with a jump index of 8.4 and won with something in hand.
Selma De Vary was held up and deserves a sectional upgrade for the move that she made to get into contention which saw her running faster sectionals than the winner through three of the final four furlongs. Her final four furlongs of 62.45s was 0.39s faster than the winner and this effort came from the back of the field where she was at a distinct disadvantage. Her penultimate furlong of 14.18s was the fastest in the race and she is entitled to be sharper for the run given that it was her first start for the Willie Mullins team since winning at Auteuil last November.
Improvement
There is some room for improvement in her jumping with a Race IQ jump index of 7.2 which would have been higher but for a tired mistake at the last where she lost momentum to the tune of 6.37mph, but that mistake came after she had made that big effort from the back of the field. The yard has a very strong hand in the Triumph Hurdle but, in receipt of the mares’ allowance, she would be a very interesting runner on the back of this eye-catching effort, and she is currently available to back as the second favourite at 7/1.