THE value of data analysis in sport is well established. Analytics help us to understand what has happened in any sporting scenario.
Where the use of data becomes trickier is in its predictive use. A horse may have produced some impressive closing sectionals under a particular pace scenario, but can a repeat performance be expected when that horse is next seen in competitive action?
Given all the variables in horse racing, that question is tough to answer, but what the data can do is give us an indication of raw ability. A wise punter once told me that if a horse cannot run a sub-12.00s furlong if asked to sprint over a three-furlong trip on good ground, then the racing game may not be for him/her.
Thus, we can use data as a predictive tool at the most fundamental level by letting it tell us just how fast a horse can run under various circumstances and compare that with others in future races.
Being able to run faster than your rivals is not a guarantee of success because of other variables, as Keely Hodgkinson found out at the World Athletics Championship 800m Final.
Strong pace
She was the fastest runner in the race, but she sat too close to an overly-strong pace and paid for her early exertions in the closing stages, allowing Lilian Odira to sweep past in the final 50 metres, who in horse racing parlance had been held-up.
This result does not detract from how fast Keely Hodgkinson can run, it just highlights that whilst we can highlight those who can run fastest, the ultimate determinant in any race is pace.
After the performance of Montassib (third) in the Group 3 Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes at Newbury on Saturday, I am prepared to use the data as a predictive tool and suggest that he is a bet for the Qipco British Champions Sprint at Ascot on October 18th at the current odds of 14/1.
The trip of five furlongs was too sharp for Montassib, but the ground suited him, given that it was a lot softer than the official description of Good to Soft (Soft in places).
The Race IQ time index values for the meeting were very low with the average being 2.5 out of 10, which is more suggestive of ground that would have been more aptly described as Heavy.
Off the pace
Montassib was returning from a 336-day break. He was last seen when fifth in the 2024 version of the Qipco British Champions Sprint, where he finished strongly having been a long way off the pace.
He had previously beaten the first three home in that race when winning the Betfair Sprint Cup of 2024. Given this absence from the track, he was understandably rusty, and this was obvious from the outset with him being the slowest horse in the race from the stalls, taking 2.61s to reach 20mph.
He ran the first furlong 0.8s slower than the winner (First Instinct) and was the only horse in the race to run a first furlong rated as slow against the Race IQ Par.
This slow start left him detached in last place, but he finished the race very strongly completing the final two furlongs more than half a second quicker than the winner and, in so doing, ran the fastest final two furlongs at the meeting.
1. First Instinct: 24.56s
2. Shagraan: 24.85s
3. Montassib: 24.03s
I have always been wary of late headway horses who save energy early in a race and pass tired horses who have been in the heat of the battle throughout, but we already know how good Montassib is. He is a Group 1 winner taking on Group 3 horses at an inadequate trip, off a lay-off and with a very slow first furlong thrown into the mix.
With circumstances mitigating against him, the data shows that he retains all his old ability, and he looks sure to run a massive race at Ascot with a repeat of this effort whilst being sharper for the run.
OWNER/breeder Kirsten Rausing has stated that Almeric is a Group 1 horse after his success in the Listed Doonside Cup at Ayr last Saturday.
It is hard to conclude that just from the data, but what we can deduce is that he is thoroughly progressive and very effective on soft ground and a Group 1 future may well lie in a step up in trip to 12 furlongs.
Almeric is a lightly-raced three-year-old who has won three of his four starts, and he has always been kept away from fast ground which is sensible given his excellent middle distance soft ground pedigree.
He was last seen winning the nine-furlong Feilden Stakes at Newmarket in April in a fast time, beating a talented field in the manner of a strong stayer.
This race provided a thorough test of stamina in conditions described as soft. The average Race IQ Time Index of 4.9 would concur with that description.
The most impressive part of his performance was how quickly and smoothly he made up ground
Almeric was the slowest into stride taking 3.43s to reach 20mph and raced in last place following a strong gallop set by Caviar Heights. Over the three days of the meeting, of the 293 horses that raced, this was the eighth-slowest break speed that was recorded.
Uncomfortable
Four of the first seven furlongs are rated as fast when compared with the Race IQ Par meaning that Almeric was uncomfortable with the early pace, but the strong gallop led to all the runners recording a relatively slow finish with Almeric staying on strongest to record a Finishing Speed Percentage of 103.99%, which compares to the Race IQ par of 106.52%.
That FSP was obtained by him recording 38.54s for the final three furlongs, which was 0.73s faster than King’s Gambit in second place and 1.47s quicker than Liberty Lane in third.
The most impressive part of his performance was how quickly and smoothly he made up ground from off the pace. It saw him run faster than all his rivals through each of the last five furlongs, recording a very fast furlong as against the Race IQ par when clocking 12.47s through the sixth furlong as he made his move through the field.
That 12.47s split was followed by a 12.50s and 12.21s furlong, which took him from last to first and that sustained speed through those three furlongs saw him hit a top speed of 37.47mph, the next best in the race being 36.53 mph from King’s Gambit.
Very effective
Almeric dominated the final five furlongs of this race and was able to quicken in the conditions making him very effective on the day at this trip of 10 furlongs.
He is entered in the Qipco Champion Stakes over the same trip and, under testing conditions, he would run well but given the strongly-run nature of this race and the relentless way in which he made up ground and drew clear of his rivals, he would certainly be as good if not better at 12 furlongs. It’s not impossible to see him emerge as a candidate for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe next season.