THE significance of data analysis is that it enables us to continually learn about the individual merits of racehorses.
Different pace scenarios create different challenges for horses and the data allows us to understand how they adapt and cope.
In the Group 1 Juddmonte Irish Oaks at the Curragh on Saturday, Minnie Hauk was on a hiding to nothing, going off as the heavy odds-on favourite she was expected to win and in so doing, we learnt enough about her to suggest that she was a good deal better than the bare result.
The going at the Curragh on Saturday was described as good/good to yielding in places. The times on the day were suggestive of it being more on the good to yielding side with a meeting Race IQ time index score of 5.1 out of 10.
Minnie Hauk won the Irish Oaks in a time of 2m 33.62s which was worth a time index slightly above the meeting average of 5.5. This is a modest time for a Group 1 at the Curragh courtesy of what was a steadily-run race with a fast finish. This is evidenced by a finishing speed percentage for Minnie Hauk of 111.72% (the highest achieved at the two-day meeting) as against the Race IQ par of 105.37%.
Turn of foot
In finishing strongly, Minnie Hauk revealed that she has more of a turn of foot than she has previously shown, and she needed it in a race that tested speed rather than stamina.
Her fastest furlong of 10.90s was the first time in her career that she has clocked a sub-11.00s furlong and her top speed of 40.65mph was the first time she had broken 40mph.
After an evenly-run opening three furlongs, the pace steadied with Minnie Hauk racing in second recording six consecutive furlongs rated as slower than the Race IQ par.
This pedestrian tempo led to the race turning into a three-furlong dash. A ninth furlong from the winner of 12.36s (slow) was followed by an 11.64s (fast) as Ryan Moore injected pace into the race.
This increasing tempo then led to Minnie Hauk clocking a 10.90s (very fast) penultimate furlong which took her to the front, and she maintained that speed in the final furlong with a very fast 11.84s.
This turn of foot contrasted with what she showed in the Oaks at Epsom where she ground out even fractions to defeat stable companion Whirl in what was a test of stamina in an evenly-run contest.
Minnie Hauk has already demonstrated that she is a strong stayer at a mile and a half but now we have data-driven evidence that she also possesses a smart turn of foot.
A stronger gallop at the Curragh may have seen her win more comfortably and there is still more to come from this filly.
She would be an interesting contender for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in the autumn for which she is generally available at 14/1.
THIS was a much-improved effort from New Zealand on his second start in the Juddmonte Irish EBF Maiden, under a well-judged front-running ride from Ryan Moore.
The race was evenly run with Moore steadying the pace through furlongs three and four before New Zealand produced a better than par final two furlongs with an FSP of 107.93% (par: 104.41%).
Both of his final two furlongs were better than par, with a fast penultimate furlong of 11.07s and a fast final furlong of 12.00s. His two stable companions who chased him home shaped with a lot of promise, with both finishing the race faster than the winner but doing so from poor positions meaning that they could not reel him in.
1st New Zealand: 23.07s
2nd Isaac Newton: 22.86s
3rd Action: 22.93s
Isaac Newton and Action both suffered bad trips with Isaac Newton being forced wide without cover and Action not getting a clear run on the inside. Both are surefire future winners.
There is a standout piece of data from the race produced by New Zealand. His peak stride length of 8.23 metres was the biggest of the whole two-day meeting at the Curragh with no other horse recording a peak length over eight metres.
He is a big, strong, rangy son of Frankel, and that long, raking stride suggests that he will get better as he steps up in trip.
He has a low cadence, recorded as being 2.14 strides per second here and that suggests he will be suited by decent ground, but above all the data suggests that using his big, long-raking stride on a galloping track will bring about the best in him and a step up to a mile this year is surely on the cards.
True Love is all about impressive speed
TRUE Love backed up her success in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot with a most impressive display of speed to win the Group 2 Gain Railway Stakes.
She is the best sprinting two-year-old we have seen this season, and a Group 1 contest will be on the agenda for her next time out.
Her final time of 1m 13.39s was not outstanding (Race IQ time index 4.9) courtesy of a modest gallop to halfway, meaning that the race can be neatly split into two halves, the first being slow, the second being fast.
At Royal Ascot, True Love showed plenty of early speed with her fastest furlong being her second (10.90s). At the Curragh under a patient ride, over a furlong further, she utilised her speed late in the race with her fastest furlong being her penultimate (10.78s).
Deliberate plan
I thought there was a deliberate plan to drop her in, get her to settle and then finish her race strongly and she did not disappoint. She was then fastest to reach 20mph taking just 2.49s and therefore was briefly in front, but she was soon settled in third place behind the leaders who did not go mad in front, recording slower than par furlongs until halfway.
True Love quickened smartly with a fourth furlong of 11.14s (fast) a fifth of 10.78s (very fast) and a final furlong of 11.77s (very fast) to surge to a five-length success and in so doing recorded a top speed of 41.7mph which was more than a mile an hour quicker the runner-up (Puerto Rico: 40.65mph) and this was the third fastest Top Speed recorded by any horse at the Curragh over the weekend.
True Love is a big, strong two-year-old who is all about speed. She will have learnt a lot from being rated in behind the leaders before quickening past her rivals.
An entry in the Nunthorpe Stakes suggest that connections see her as being a sprinter, but they could test the water as regards a tilt at the 1000 Guineas next season in the seven-furlong Moyglare at the Curragh in September, although her career may be dictated by where all the other talented Ballydoyle juveniles are targeted.