AS autumn descends and conditions change, our data expectations for horses change as well.
Pace scenarios are different as jockeys ride to conditions and horses find their speed blunted. This makes traditional analysis difficult with performances under different conditions hard to compare.
This is where data provides context, as it can analyse individual performances through the prism of conditions. For example, Race IQ standard times are adjusted according to the advertised conditions and are tailored to the type of race under the conditions as described.
Expectations in terms of how fast horses are expected to finish a race, as expressed by Par Finishing Speed percentages, are also cognisant of conditions - thereby allowing for accurate analysis of races whatever the going description.
The visual impression created by Lady Of Spain when winning the BetMGM Atalanta Stakes at Sandown on Saturday was a positive one, as she galloped out resolutely to win by half a length from the progressive three-year-old Blue Bolt.
It was not necessarily one that sent you straight to whatever tracker you use to make sure that you don’t miss her next run, but according to the data that is exactly what you should do.
BetMGM Atalanta Stakes (Group 3)
Lady Of Spain was unbeaten in four starts on an all-weather surface coming into this race and an easy listed success at Deauville on her latest start suggested that she was a useful performer on a synthetic surface, but had questions to answer on a soft turf surface for the first time whilst stepping up in grade.
The starting point for race analysis should always be the final time that was achieved. Lady Of Spain clocked 1m 44.08s, which was (-2.20s) under the Race IQ Par expectation for a race of this class under soft conditions over one mile.
This time was easily the best on the card and garnered a Race IQ Time Index of 8.1 with the meeting average being 5.3. This was more than 2.2 points quicker than any other time registered on the day as expressed below.
Race IQ Time Index Sandown
God Of War 5.3
Lady Of Spain 8.1
Saddadd 5.5
A Bit Of Spirit 5.9
Deedaydiva 4.2
You Sexy Thing 3.7
Woolhampton 4.5
The race was set up to record a fast overall time, courtesy of a very fast first half-mile.
Lady Of Spain went more than half a second quicker than par through each of the first four furlongs, as she tracked the furious pace in ninth place.
This strong early gallop led to a slow finish up the Sandown hill, with Lady Of Spain keeping on relatively strongly compared to her opponents.
She recorded an FSP of 93.31% (Par 101.10%) with a final two furlongs of 27.89s, figures which looked at in isolation are far from impressive, but they suggest a powerful finish compared to her toiling rivals, who failed to cope with the fast early pace.
Only Blue Bolt (second) who had comfortably won the Listed Coral Distaff on her previous start, was able to throw down a challenge to the winner but having got first run, she could not see the race out as well with an FSP of 92.81%.
In her previous wins, Lady Of Spain had shown that she can travel strongly and quicken. This race provided a different test, in that it required her to handle strong early fractions and then grind out success.
This versatility suggests that she is very smart and there may be more improvement to come on turf when encountering a better surface. She has an entry in the Group 1 Sun Chariot at Newmarket on October 4th, for which she is generally available at 10/1; should she turn up on the day I suspect she will go off at half those odds.
AT the Curragh on Saturday, Mission Central may not have impressed everyone with his head carriage in the closing stages of Group 3 Round Tower Stakes, but the Race IQ data suggests he is one to be positive about, particularly when dropped in trip to five furlongs. The race also produced a significant eye-catcher in the runner-up, The Publican’s Son.
Mission Central is a rarity in that he is a gelding trained by Aidan O’Brien. He won a maiden at the Curragh in a fast time on his second career start and backed that up in good style recording the second-best time on the card.
His final time of 1m 12.36s was (-0.56s) under the Race IQ par, giving him a Time Index of 6.3, which compares to the meeting average of 5.9. His win was characterised by how fast he was able to travel on the bridle, and this was helped by him being the fastest to break from the stalls.
He took 2.56s to reach 20mph, that compared to The Publican’s Son who took 3.07s. Thereafter, Mission Central dominated this race for five evenly-run furlongs, carving out strong fractions before tiring markedly in the final furlong.
Mission Central’s Sectionals
F1: 14.49s (Fast)
F2: 11.32s (Par)
F3: 11.15s (Par)
F4: 11.17s (Par)
F5: 11.33s (Par)
F6: 12.91s (Very Slow)
He had the race won at the furlong pole, but his very slow final furlong, where he looked ungainly racing with his head in the air, left a rather negative impression.
I would be inclined to be positive about the speed that he showed, having his rivals in trouble after halfway, and would suggest that he won despite failing to stay the six-furlong trip. His FSP of 99.50% (Par: 101.90%) was dramatically affected by his very slow final furlong of 12.91s, which was bettered by the second, third and fourth horses home. Had this been a five-furlong contest, I suspect he would have been an impressive winner. That trip is surely where his future lies.
The Publican’s Son flashed home after his tardy start. His final two furlongs of 23.87s was 0.37s faster than the winner and his final furlong of 12.42s (Par) got him to within three-quarters of a length of the winner.
He also had the longest average stride length in the race of 7.7m compared to 7.54m for the winner. He is sure to have learnt from this and would be a surefire winner of a maiden should connections decide to go down that route.
That Joseph O’Brien saw fit to introduce this horse in a Group 3 contest is indicative of how highly he is thought of, and he has a Group 1 entry in the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket.
He is a bright prospect who will be suited by a step up to six furlongs and further and he is a good advert for his young sire Beau Liam who sired an 11-length winner (Belgian) of a Saratoga maiden special weight in August.