THE highlight last weekend was a scintillating performance from Delacroix in the Coral-Eclipse.
Final times of races are a good starting point for analysis, but to understand what happened in a race we must delve much deeper. The best times are achieved when horses run evenly recording a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) which is as close to the par for the race as possible.
Where the final time is not as good as could have been expected, the cause is normally found by analysing the pace of the race.
A slow pace leading to a fast finish or a fast pace leading to a slow finish may not produce an optimum time, but within the individual sectionals of those races, we can identify components of a horse’s raw ability even if that ability has not been distributed through every furlong.
This was the case with the Coral-Eclipse on Saturday which produced a remarkable performance from Delacroix who overcame the run of the race and adversity in that run to win with a remarkable finishing effort.
The final time of 2m 5.92s was (-0.42s) under the Race IQ par producing a Time Index of 6.2 which is an average score for a 10-furlong race at Sandown on ground described as Good to firm (Firm in places).
This score was produced courtesy of a steady early pace. Sosie went quickly through the first furlong to get to the lead then steadied the pace as detailed below with a rating that compares the times with the Race IQ par.
F1: 14.08s (Fast)
F2: 12.19s (Slow)
F3: 12.61s (Very Slow)
F4: 12.61s (Slow)
This steady early pace saw Delacroix shuffled back on the inside and William Buick on Ombudsman, cognisant of the steady gallop, made an early moved forward which effectively boxed Delacroix in behind the leaders.
There was no uplift in the gallop for the first seven furlongs and when the pace did finally pick up Delacroix was marooned in sixth and last place.
He was still in last place entering the final quarter mile, hemmed in by stable companion Camille Pissarro. What he produced once switched wide was remarkable and the actual numbers he produced do not really do justice to the turn of foot that he showed given the topography of Sandown. This is where par sectionals are useful because they put numbers achieved in context.
He ran nearly half a second quicker than par through the penultimate furlong (11.91s Fast) and then backed that up with a final furlong that was one second quicker than par (12.39s Very fast). This meant that his FSP of 105.08% was well above the par finishing effort that could be expected at Sandown over this trip of 101.32%.
This is not a story of Delacroix staying the trip better than Ombudsman, it is a tale of an electric turn of foot, and we cannot say that we had not seen evidence of this before.
In winning a slowly run Derby trial at Leopardstown in May, he recorded an FSP of 115.32% with three very fast final furlongs as below.
F8: 11.44s (Very Fast)
F9: 10.89s (Very Fast)
F10: 11.64s (Very Fast)
Some felt that this win was courtesy of Delacroix sitting close to a steady gallop and being the first to strike for home, but this ignores the numbers that he recorded when he did quicken and that was to run very fast.
Delacroix may have only won the Coral-Eclipse by a neck, but he overcame a positional disadvantage and trouble in running with a devastating turn of foot and to analyse what he achieved without giving him a significant sectional upgrade is to miss the essence of what he achieved.
This win was the perfect storm for Coolmore who now have a Group 1-winning colt by Dubawi, out of a world class mare in Tepin, and therefore they will have a stallion with Dubawi blood to impart on his progeny.
Hardly a replacement for Galileo, but another string to their mightily powerful breeding bow.
Positive for Pissarro
Of the vanquished, the Race IQ data is positive about the performance of Camille Pissarro. He was the fastest horse in the race through F7: 12.00s (Fast) where he went from fifth place to second, he was then faster than all of his rivals through the next two furlongs F8: 11.64s (Fast) and F9: 11.89s (Fast) but he could not sustain that speed with a final furlong that was faster than par but slower than five of the six runners (12.99s Fast).
These numbers suggest that he may be worth dropping back in trip to a mile and the Breeders’ Cup springs to mind.
Ombudsman ran below his Royal Ascot winning form. He was well placed in a steadily run race and quickened well but did not sustain his speed all the way to the line, being only third best through the final furlong as detailed below.
Final Furlong Splits:
1st Delacroix: 12.39s (very fast)
2nd Ombudsman: 12.77s (fast)
3rd Ruling Court: 12.72s very fast)
The stronger gallop in the Prince of Wales’s stakes suited Ombudsman a lot better than this greater test of speed and connections may employ a pacemaker for him in the future.
We should be under no illusion that this was a world class performance from Delacroix and a clash with Field Of Gold at a mile or more probably the 10 furlongs of the Juddmonte International will rightly be dubbed as the race of this season.
THE July Cup is the headline act this week at Newmarket and the addition of Notable Speech to the field is intriguing. The big question is will he have enough speed for a return to six furlongs? He was not seen at his best in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot where he was too keen off a steady gallop and a stronger pace over six furlongs will help him relax.
He is a fast horse as the Race IQ data identifies. When he won at Kempton in April last year, he recorded an FSP of 115.02% finishing the race with furlongs of 10.81s (Very Fast) and 10.98s (Very Fast). In that race, he reached a top speed of 41.66mph quickening from the rear to catch horses who were quickening themselves, and he showed in the Lockinge this year that he still retains that speed by running two sub-11.00s furlongs and recording a top speed of 41.72 mph.
Notable Speech is a strong travelling horse whose main weapon is his speed, after all he is by a world class sire in Dubawi out of a mare whose sire was the sprinter Invincible Spirit. It may be that, although he obviously stays a mile, his speed might be better employed in the sprinting division.
When horses drop in trip, common wisdom suggests they need to be ridden prominently to make use of their stamina. This often results in them doing too much too soon. A more patient approach allows them to finish their races strongly and Notable Speech will be best employed getting some cover and using his speed when it matters most.
To have a 2000 Guineas and Sussex Stakes winner in this race makes it more interesting and at around 7/2 he represents tremendous value to outclass his rivals in a division where a horse of his quality rarely turns up.