I ALWAYS turn to the Race IQ data before forming an opinion on a race or an individual performance. Sometimes I will look at the data produced before watching the race and paint a picture in my mind of what happened, thereby eliminating false impressions that can sometimes compromise data interpretation.
The impressions created by Final Demand, Kopek Des Bordes and Lulamba last week were ones that evoked effusive praise with little recourse to the data produced.
All three got the job done in style, but was there any real substance to their achievements?
This is a case where the visual impression created is not only backed up by the data, but is enhanced.
Final Demand has won four of his five races for Willie Mullins, his only defeat coming at the Cheltenham Festival at the hands of The New Lion.
He was a quick and efficient jumper of a hurdle, with a lifetime Race IQ Jump Index of 8.0 out of 10, but he fits the well-worn cliché that he looks like he will be a better chaser with a performance that garnered him a career best Jump Index of 9.2 out of 10.
This is the joint-highest Race IQ Jump Index recorded on debut over fences in the Race IQ database and sits in the top 0.1% of all jumping performances over fences from a sample size of 30,324 horses.
This exceptionally high Jump Index was achieved through his speed over his fences. Where a loss of 4.00mph through the jumping envelope (30 metres before to 30 metres after a fence) is quick and efficient, he averaged a loss of only 2.8mph over the 14 obstacles.
The pace of this race was very steady, allowing the field to measure their fences as evidenced by the first three home able to finish strongly with Finishing Speed Percentages (FSP) well above 100%.
This steady pace meant that Wingmen was still in contention three furlongs from home, but he was 2.91s slower than Final Demand through the final two furlongs, readily outpaced by Final Demand, who never came off the bridle.
Final Demand: FSP: 114.61%
Wingmen: FSP: 110.57%
Now Is The Hour: FSP: 110.54%
Paul Townend finished the race sporting a broad grin and the data encapsulates everything that his smile conveyed.
A price of 6/4 for the Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival may seem a bit tight, but he is likely to go there unbeaten and go off odds on.
KOPEK Des Bordes was an impressive 13-length winner here on his debut over fences. He displayed an aptitude for chasing amid exuberance, which may have played a part in his data not being as impressive as Final Demand. Paul Townend was anxious to control his forward-going nature, making him measure his fences, perhaps cognisant of the fact that he could take a chance at his hurdles.
His Lifetime Jump Index over hurdles was 6.9 out of 10 and, in recording a Jump Index of 7.5 here, he was efficient enough at his fences whilst leaving the impression that he is equally capable of a spectacular round of jumping or a speed-induced mistake.
He was not as fast through the jumping envelope as Final Demand, losing on average 4.9mph over the 12 fences and he was not as fast on the level either with an FSP of 111.43%, reaching a top speed of 32.51mph compared to Final Demand, who hit 33.57mph. Whilst speedometer readings are interesting, some caution is required given that both horses were not asked for maximum effort.
If Final Demand can be described as ruthlessly efficient, Kopek Des Bordes can be categorised as an exciting enthusiast whose chasing debut data suggests a bright future. Given his hurdling exploits, his position at the head of the Arkle Trophy betting (7/4) is completely justified with a caveat that there is room for some improvement in his jumping if his forward-going nature allows.
LULAMBA was on edge before his chasing debut at Exeter and looked lean and fit. He was in receipt of 8lb courtesy of the four-year-old allowance and this was not the jumping test it could have been with four fences omitted in the back straight due to the dreaded low sun.
He won by 10 lengths, asserting his authority over the final four fences in a race that was much more strongly run than the two already analysed due to the faster ground, described as good to soft (good in places) and to the strong gallop set by Tripoli Flyer. Lulamba won easily, recording an FSP of 94.83% which would have been a bigger figure had he been asked for more effort.
He was a good jumper of hurdles. In three starts, he achieved a lifetime index of 7.0 out of 10. He only had to jump eight fences here, but the impression he created with his jumping was only a moderate one, recording a jump index of 6.0. This score, that was easily bettered by Final Demand and Kopek Des Bordes, came about courtesy of him losing over 7mph over three of the eight fences.
His average speed loss of -5.8mph is in stark contrast to Final Demand (-2.8mph) and Kopek Des Bordes (- 4.9mph). There is some mitigation for this in that, due to the stronger gallop at Exeter, he approached his fences at a faster speed than either of the other two, but the data is clear that he was not particularly slick and efficient over his fences.
Lulamba is generally available at 4/1 for the Arkle, which at this stage is not tempting given his jumping data at Exeter. He has plenty more to work on than Kopek Des Bordes before March.
Festival targets
Paul Nicholls was effusive in his praise for No Drama This End after his win in a Grade 2 novice hurdle last Friday at Cheltenham and, according to the data, he is fully justified to be bullish after what was a data-dominant performance.
He jumped very efficiently on his hurdling debut, recording a jump index of 8.1 out of 10, which is rated in the top 2% of debut performances over hurdles in the database. He was able to negotiate the jumping envelope very quickly with his average speed loss being recorded as 2.2mph.
Not only was he very slick at his hurdles, he also showed that he has plenty of speed. In a strongly-run race, he recorded a top speed of 34.05mph and, in so doing, was the only horse in the race to break 34.00mph. This enabled him to finish the race strongly with an FSP of 106.96%, despite the pace being a relatively strong one courtesy of Heads Up.
Whilst the Albert Bartlett is an obvious target, the Challow Hurdle at Newbury is an obvious stepping stone given the excellent record that Paul Nicholls has in the race.