TWO contenders for the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse emerged last weekend, and the data is clear that the bigger priced of the two for that race is the one to be with. Both were ridden by Mark Walsh, who is riding as well as ever and has handled the passing of the J.P. McManus baton to Harry Cobden with class and dignity.
Showurappreciation won at Navan on Saturday and is generally available at 20/1 with Uhavemeinstitches a 16/1 shot, having won at Limerick last Sunday. Whilst neither are guaranteed to run, the discrepancy in their prices is too big.
The highlight of the Naas race was the superb ride that Mark Walsh gave the winner. His pace judgement was exemplary and, despite the runner-up getting first run and establishing a significant advantage, he never panicked.
Showurappreciation had bolted up in a handicap hurdle at Navan on his previous start off an official mark of 112 and made further progress by winning this race off a mark of 126 and the impression he created was that there is more to come from him. This race was steadily run on ground that was Heavy, a fact that is evidenced by the relatively strong finishing efforts of the first five home, who were able to finish the race strongly despite the stiff nature of the track.
Finishing Speed Percentages (FSP)
1st: Showurappreciation: 106.88%
2nd: Kish Bank: 105.25%
3rd: Nelson County: 102.98%
4th: Sammy Smart: 102.05%
5th: Rokathir: 102.23%
Kish Bank raced in second place with Showurappreciation held up in eighth. After two miles of the three-mile trip, the winner was 1.25 seconds off the pace, with Kish Bank just 0.27 seconds behind the pace. This equates to a distinct positional disadvantage for Showurappreciation with a mile to go.
He was still 1.09 seconds behind Kish Bank with two furlongs to go, but Mark Walsh still seemed confident and his patience was rewarded with his mount producing a remarkable surge through the final two furlongs, which saw him bridge the gap and pull a length and three-quarters clear of the runner-up. Their final two-furlong splits are below.
Showurappreciation Kish Bank
F23: 15.68s F23: 16.15s
F24: 16.60s F24: 17.61s
The dominance of the winner is not just demonstrated by a strong finish, it is also inherent in the jumping performances of the first two. Both jumped well with Race IQ jump index values of 8.0 (winner) and 8.6 (runner-up), but Kish Bank gained 8.71 lengths on the winner with a superb jumping display but still couldn’t win, which implores us to mark up the performance of the winner.
Showurappreciation has only had five runs over fences and is improving rapidly. He stays three miles well, but has plenty of speed as he has shown in the past. When he won at Navan over Christmas, he recorded an FSP of 110.16% and an even faster finish at Punchestown in January, where his FSP was 113.90%.
This speed will be a major asset as the ground dries out and will serve him well in a race like the Irish Grand National, should he be aimed at that race. Alternatively, his jumping is good enough to think that he would be a major player in the Topham Chase at Aintree.
Easy lead?
Whilst Showurappreciation was able to win when faced with a positional disadvantage and his main rival jumping better than him, Uhavemeinstitches got everything his own way against a rival who did not jump particularly well.
The data is clear that this was an easy lead win. Uhavemeinstitches was always prominent and took up the running after 10 furlongs, thereafter dictating a steady gallop which resulted in him saving plenty of energy for a fast finish, as evidenced by a very high finishing speed percentage of 117.95%.
You Oughta Know, who finished second, recorded an even faster finish (119.23%) closing the winner down all the way to the line, but had been let down by his jumping. Uhavemeinstitches recorded a Race IQ jump index of 7.4 out of 10 compared to the runner-up, who recorded a value of 6.9. This better round of jumping from the winner meant that he gained 6.98 lengths on the runner-up which proved decisive.
The second last proved to be pivotal with You Oughta Know approaching the fence slightly faster than the winner, but a bad error saw him lose 6.74mph compared to the winner who only lost 3.64mph. Given that there was only half a length between them at the line, it is impossible not to think that Uhavemeinstitiches was a shade lucky to win.
This was a weak Grade 3, and the winner did not achieve nearly as much as Showurappreciation did at Navan and should not be shorter in the market for the Irish National. That does not mean that Uhavemeinstitches doesn’t have a decent career in staying chases in the future, as this was only his sixth chase and he has plenty of room for improvement - but probably not as much as Showurappreciation.
IT is possible that the best horse we saw at the weekend was Glens Anthem, who landed the Bumper at Navan on Saturday. The market for this race suggested that it was a strong contest. The second on debut was very well supported for the Charles Byrnes’ team and, at a bigger price, the third was also really strong in the market, but they were beaten comprehensively with Glens Anthem winning by seven and a half lengths.
This was a truly-run race producing a result that can be relied upon. The winner travelled strongly and, having been produced to lead approaching the final furlong, impressed with how quickly she went clear of her field.
Her FSP of 101.90% showed that the race did not turn into a sprint but was more about being able to sustain a strong gallop, which the runner-up (98.23%) and the third (95.23%) were unable to do. Glens Anthem went to the front with a fast penultimate furlong of 14.69s and, in so doing, was the only horse to break 15.00s through that furlong, then in the final furlong, clocked 16.37s which was much quicker than her rivals, all of whom failed to record a split under 17.00s.
Glens Anthem has a pedigree that suggests she could be top class. She is by the 2016 Derby winner Harzand out of Glens Melody, who won the Grade 1 Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in 2015. She will make up into a smart hurdler next season, but for now is worthy of a place in higher company and I would fully expect the runner-up Bunker Buster to win a bumper next time out and thereby frank the form.