THE three Grade 1 contests at Punchestown on Tuesday provided a couple of shock results, albeit with the familiar refrain of Willie Mullins securing two of them.

Dooley Insurance Group Champion Novice Chase (Grade 1)

The step up in trip to three miles and a furlong suited Champ Kiely, who travelled strongly and jumped well in a race where three of his stable companions failed to complete and Ballyburn was once again let down by his jumping.

Of those that finished the race, all the Race IQ metrics are positive about the performance of Champ Kiely as detailed below.

This data contrasts with Ballyburn, who once again spent too much time in the air at his fences.

He jumped relatively cleanly to the eye, but he was slow at his obstacles. Contrast the above numbers with the following attributed to Ballyburn.

Willie Mullins has suggested that Ballyburn may revert to hurdles and, given his poor chase index score of 6.3 compared to 7.3 over hurdles, that would seem to be sensible.

KPMG Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)

THIS was a strongly-run contest with Salvator Mundi and the disappointing Kopek Des Bordes doing way too much early in the race and setting it up for the evenly ridden Irancy. All of the runners finished relatively slowly as a result of the strong early gallop, as demonstrated by the recorded Finishing Speed Percentages which show that all of the runners were slower through the final four furlongs than the previous 12, this is supported by each of them running the sixth furlong faster than any other.

Finishing Speed Percentages:

Salvator Mundi did well to finish second, having run freely in front and is clearly very talented, but in essence this was a pace meltdown with Irancy able to reserve more energy than the rest of the field for a stronger finish. His final furlong of 14.92s was much faster than any of his rivals, none of whom were able to complete the final furlong under 16.00s.

Irancy jumped very efficiently with a Race IQ jump index of 8.7 out of 10 and gaining ground on his rivals at every one of the eight flights of hurdles.

By contrast Kopek Des Bordes, who raced too freely, did not jump well. His jump index of 7.4 was fourth best in the race and he lost a total of 1.92 lengths on the field with his jumping.

Whilst this moderate round of jumping did not help his chances, it should be noted that his Jump Index when he won the Supreme Novices hurdle at Cheltenham was only 6.9 and it is therefore legitimate to suggest that something else was at play in him recording this poor effort, Willie Mullins suggesting that he may have been too easy on him since Cheltenham.

William Hill Champion Chase (Grade 1)

THIS was an evenly-run contest with Marine Nationale having too much speed for his rivals in the final half mile. His final four furlongs of 56.75s was 1.63s faster than Captain Guiness in second place.

This gave him the highest FSP in the contest of 103.36% and not only did he finish the race quickly he was also able to get away from his fences faster than all his rivals, on average he exited the jumping envelope at 29.17mph compared to 28.46mph for Captain Guiness. There is room for improvement in his jumping, given that his lifetime jump index is just above average at 7.5, but he has only had seven starts over the larger obstacles and he may well improve that score next season. It was a shame that El Fabiolo fell again as he was travelling strongly when he came down at the second last. Up until that point, he had been good at his fences gaining ground on his rivals at seven of the nine fences. His career jump index of 7.0 is an average score and we don’t need complicated data analysis to know that he needs to jump better.

Fact To File was disappointing dropped back in trip to two miles and something must have been amiss given that he recorded the best jump index in the race of 7.9 out of 10 which should have allowed him to remain competitive through the race, but he stopped quickly and was not given a hard time. His potential remains intact for something like the King George at Kempton next season.

Bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1)

THE Bet365 Gold Cup meeting last Saturday at Sandown was a triumph for the Willie Mullins team. Data analysis of the meeting did not reveal anything remarkable, but it is worth touching on the non-quantifiable notion that some horses did not perform because they have had a busy season already.

This was the reason given for the defeat of Jonbon in the Bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1), but it is a nebulous theory devoid of substance. The truth lies in the data, and it suggests that Jonbon gave his running which was easily good enough to beat some of his old foes, but not a new kid on the block.

Let’s be clear, there are no excuses in the data for Jonbon. In terms of pace, Mark Walsh judged it well from the front allowing Jonbon to save enough energy for a relatively strong finish, recording a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 102.64%, not a finishing effort of a horse jaded with his season’s efforts.

That finish would have seen him being lauded as nine-and-a-half-length winner had Il Etait Temps not been in the field, but unfortunately for Jonbon, Il Etait Temps was there and he was able to finish the race a lot faster than Jonbon, recording an FSP of 105.78%.

Having had his own way out in front and travelled with zest, Jonbon was readily found out by a horse with more speed than him.

To suggest that Jonbon was unable to finish the race as strongly as Il Etait Temps because he had endured a busy season is folly, because if you look at all his races this season, this represented his second fastest finish as detailed below.

Jonbon’s Finishing Speed Percentages in 2025:

There were no excuses in terms of pace or finishing effort and nor were there any excuses in respect of jumping. Jonbon jumped to type recording a RaceIQ jump index of 7.6 out of 10, which is marginally better than his career average of 7.5. By contrast, Il Etait Temps jumped superbly recording an index of 8.9 and gaining 11.42 lengths on Jonbon through his jumping. This was a typical jumping effort from Jonbon and it is clear from the data that the round of jumping that he usually produces to beat his perennial rivals was not good enough to see off Il Etait Temps.

The 2026 Champion Chase betting has a fresh and exciting look to it, with Marine Nationale, Sir Gino and Il Etait Temps at the head of it, a welcome changing of the guard.