THE first day of the Sky Bet Ebor Festival was replete with strongly-run races producing slow finishes. Only Small Fry in the two-mile Sky Bet Stayers Handicap was able to better the Par Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP).

It is hard to quantify what caused these relatively slow finishes other than to suggest that jockeys, who for the last month have been negotiating fast ground, struggled to adjust to the slower conditions that prevailed last week.

This trend continued through the next three days of the meeting meaning that over the four days of the meeting, comprising 28 races, only eight horses beat the par expectation, four of those were on the straight sprint course and the other four on the round course.

The numbers achieved are detailed below with the seven better than Par scores in pink.

Day 1: FSP vs Par

Air Force One 98.43% vs 100.73%

Haffner 97.00% vs 99.61%

Maltese Cross 100.14% vs 105.46%

Item: 101.04% vs 104.76%

Small Fry 109.18% vs 107.54%

Miss Yechance 97.65% vs 100.59%

Henley On Thames 96.62% vs 98.91%

Day 2: FSP vs Par

Libertango 99.57% vs 98.91%

Sun Goddess 98.46% vs 98.91%

The Lost King 95.35% vs 101.45%

Kalpana 101.27% vs 105.45%

Prizeland 102.40% vs 105.45%

Mia Fantasia 99.96% vs 99.61%

Machadadrop 96.74% vs 99.61%

Day 3: FSP vs Par

Blue Courvoisier 100.78% vs 101.44%

Al Nayyir 102.19% vs 107.58%

Arapaho Gold 103.10% vs 98.91%

Bacio 96.57% vs 100.59%

Plage De Havre 102.34% vs 105.46%

Benjamin Hornigold 100.68% vs 99.61%

Silver Lake 104.80% vs 104.83%

Day 4: FSP vs Par

Archivist 102.29% vs 103.25%

Infraad 106.58% vs 105.55%

Notable Speech 99.33% vs 99.61%

Daiquiri Bay 105.94% vs 105.55%

Sondad 98.93% vs 98.91%

Sale Shark 98.71% vs 100.59%

Raammee 103.30% vs 104.76%

These finishing efforts are a function of the pace of races on the ground. Strongly-run races prevailed on ground that was never better than ‘Good’ and at worst ‘Soft’ on day two, particularly on the latter part of that card as the rain fell. This is reflected in the average Race IQ Time Index values over the four days.

Time Index Values: (Meeting Index Average)

Day 1: Index 4.4 (Good to Soft)

Day 2: Index 3.6 (Soft)

Day 3: Index 4.8 (Good to Soft)

Day 4: Index 6.3 (Good)

These numbers tell us that the ground was at its most testing on Day 2 and at its quickest on the final day.

It is important to remember that a high FSP is not an indicator of the best performances, as they must be assessed in the context of the relevant pace scenarios and the ground, but they do help us understand how races were run in the conditions.

Keane just had to seize the initiative

Legends Global Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1)

THE worsening conditions and a very strongly-run race provided a thrilling contest for the Yorkshire Oaks on the second day of the meeting, with Kalpana toughing out a short-head victory over the unlucky Sparan Nua.

This race was very strongly run and, with Kalpana going in pursuit of Sugar Island (pacemaker), it meant that a long way from home and the unrelenting pace resulted in a slow final time of 2m 36.00s garnering a Race IQ Time Index of 1.3, which was the lowest Index produced over the four days.

A good example of why pace makes the race and, for context, Prizeland who won the Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes on the same day over the same trip produced a winning time of 2m 34.94s with a Time Index of 3.7.

This does not mean that Prizeland is a better horse than Kalpana, it merely tells us that Prizeland was able to race evenly and distribute her energy better than Kalpana was allowed to.

Sugar Island set a furious gallop, completing each furlong of the first mile faster than Par, putting her well and truly in the red zone.

For the first two furlongs, the other runners went in pursuit, all of them producing very fast furlongs vs Par, but after that furious first quarter mile, they eased off the gas and this left Sugar Island to her own one-horse speed duel.

In pursuit

The field was effectively taken along by Johanna Walsh until four furlongs out, when Colin Keane decided to go in pursuit of Sugar Island, a point at which he was 4.21s (21 lengths) behind the leader.

Ideally, he would have had a horse to follow, but he made the positive decision to go in pursuit of Sugar Island.

Kalpana quickened four furlongs out, with an 11.94s (Par) furlong and she backed that up with her fastest furlong of the race of 11.91s (Par).

This injection of speed over two furlongs saw her reduce the deficit to 1.38s (6.9 lengths).

She soon reduced this gap, with Sugar Island stopping to a virtual walk and was in front inside the two-furlong pole, but the big effort she had made took its toll and she produced a very slow final quarter mile of 26.90s.

The rest of the field also produced slow finishes, but it was Sparan Nua who emerged as the fastest finisher with a final quarter mile split of 26.11s.

She produced this after encountering traffic problems, which caused her to lose momentum - without which she would probably have won.

She was in sixth place with two furlongs to run, 0.8s (four lengths) behind Kalpana and once in the clear reduced the gap to 0.01s or a short head.

Went too soon

With hindsight, it’s easy to argue that Colin Keane went too soon on Kalpana, which meant she was very tired in the final furlong and therefore vulnerable to a closer like Sparan Nua, but Sugar Island was a long way ahead and, whilst he would have believed she would come back to him, he didn’t know just how tired she would get and someone had to seize the initiative and chase down the leader.

In an ideal world, he would have made up the ground gradually whilst getting a tow but there was nobody prepared to tow him along and the form book will forever say that he won the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks on Kalpana and winning races of this nature is what he is employed to do whether he does it ugly or not.

Archivist enters Group 1 arena

Sky Bet Strensall Stakes (Group 3)

THE form book will also note that Item, Kalpana, Bacio and Notable Speech won the four Group 1 races on the card, but where data analysis has an advantage is that it can identify a Group 1 performer hiding in plain sight in a lesser race and that was the case when it came to the Hamad Al Jehani-trained Archivist on the final day of the meeting.

Archivist annihilated his rivals by seven and a half lengths on his first race in pattern company. He has improved for the fitting of a hood, since which he has won three times in four starts.

He put up a career best when winning the Coral Golden Mile at Goodwood last time out off a mark of 105 and improved again to the extent that he must be a 115+ horse after this.

Archivist won in a final time of 1m 49.50s, which produced a Time Index of 6.6 and was 1.22s under the Race IQ Par expectation.

Archivist was slowly into stride taking 2.48s (eighth fastest) to reach 20mph and, thereafter, raced in the rear in a strongly-run contest courtesy of the perennial front-runner Point Lynas.

Fastest split

At halfway, the first three home were racing in eighth, ninth and 10th, which can be a visual indication of an overly-strong early gallop. This is confirmed by the data that shows us that every horse in the race produced their fastest split through the second furlong. Given the strong early pace, the sustained speed that Archivist was able to show in the final half mile was very impressive.

Through the first seven furlongs of this nine-furlong trip, Archivist was able to complete each furlong in sub-12.00s splits. For context, the runner-up Saber Strike, who was also held up, only managed to dip under 12.00s for five of those furlongs. On the back of some slick splits, Archivist was then able to finish the race relatively strongly and that is what is so impressive about this effort.

He was the fastest horse in the race through each of the final two furlongs and he was the only horse to dip under 13.00s (12.61s) in the final furlong. His final quarter mile compared to Saber Strike as below.

1st Archivist: 36.48s

2nd Saber Strike: 37.42s

This was a performance that suggests Archivist will be competitive in Group 1 company and a realistic long-term target would be the nine-furlong Dubai Turf at Meydan on Dubai World Cup night.

He won a handicap at the track in March, and he is a much-improved model now. If he takes a step up in grade, he may well be underestimated by the market.