THERE has been a lot of noise surrounding Constitution Hill but untimately no Champion Hurdle bid after his resounding win on the flat at Southwell.

I will analyse the data that is unequivocal that he is a fast horse whose potential career on the flat must be at 12 furlongs or shorter for him to realise his potential, but firstly a comment on that Champion Hurdle bid is necessary.

If Nicky Henderson believed that Constitution Hill could have won the Champion Hurdle, then he should have run. He is not the guardian of the sport of horse racing; he does not have to concern himself with any repercussions in the event of another fall nor should he be concerned with an analysis of risk.

If every jump trainer conducted a risk assessment and had to consider the potential noise if things go wrong, then there would be no sport. Risk is an inherent part of the sport and Henderson does not need reminding of this.

Other trainers who have runners in the race, because their opinion is biased, of course they didn’t want Constitution Hill to run, because they know they can’t beat him.

Visual impression

The data that Constitution Hill produced at Southwell is in accordance with the stunning visual impression that he created and, if he was to have a flat campaign, I have no doubt that he would become a pattern class performer of at least Group 2 level.

This race was little more than a jumpers’ bumper with just two runners having recent modest form on the flat, but as I have always said, it is not about what you beat but how fast you ran.

Constitution Hill won in a time of 2m 34.47s, which unsurprisingly was the fastest time at the meeting. It was -1.44s under the Race IQ par giving him a Time Index value of 6.8 out of 10 with the meeting average being 5.8. In achieving this time, he showed plenty of speed despite a tardy start.

His inexperience at the stalls was clear, with him being the 10th fastest in the race to reach 20mph, taking 3.19s.

Thereafter, he travelled strongly off what were steady fractions before quickening smartly to record a Finishing Speed Percentage of 109.68%, which was 5.11% quicker than Square Necker in second place. This impressive finishing effort saw him record three sub-12.00s furlongs as below.

Constitution Hill Final three furlongs:

F10: 11.89s

F11: 11.31s

F12: 11.81s

This gave him a final three furlongs of 35.01s compared to the runner-up who clocked 37.10s. In quickening up so smartly, he hit 39.92mph, which is the fastest that he has run in his career, bettering the 37.41mph that he clocked in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton in 2023.

Age has clearly not blunted his speed, and it is not inconceivable to believe that he could have run faster here if he had been hard pressed.

Timeform have allotted him a speed figure of 95 for this performance, which is high for a flat debutant and, if you like assessing horses based on what they have beaten, he can be allotted a rating in the low 100s with the potential for 10lb or more to be added given the speed he showed.

Pace is always the most important factor in any horse race and affects how much energy horses have for a strong finish, but there are many decent flat horses who would struggle to run three sub-12.00s furlongs whatever the pace scenario.

Flat campaign

I am reluctant to map out a flat campaign for him, there are enough ideas floating around already, but I am unequivocal that speed is his main asset, and he would be just as good at 10 furlongs as at 12. Down in trip would be a much better route than up and a Cup campaign would surely stretch his stamina and blunt his speed.

If he had run in the Champion Hurdle, he would have won bar a fall.

WITH the Cheltenham Festival on the horizon, the National Hunt action was low key last week. Nonetheless, I want to give a sectional upgrade to Grangeclare West in the Grade 3 Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last Sunday.

Given the very testing conditions, this race was steadily run and Grangeclare West was held up in last place, not helped by slow jumps at the first two fences where he lost 6.38mph and 6.78mph respectively.

In a steadily-run race, he was poorly placed in rear, and he impressed with just how much late speed he showed to chase down the revitalised Gerri Colombe, who got first run.

The first four home all finished strongly, all recording FSPs above 100% as detailed below and Grangeclare West deserves extra credit for being able to run down horses who were not stopping in front of him.

1st Grangeclare West: 111.75%

2nd Gerri Colombe: 109.07%

3rd Stellar Story: 105.39%

4th Answer To Kayf: 106.12%

He was the only horse through each of the final two furlongs to dip under 16.00s with splits of 15.90s and 15.15s, showing plenty of speed to overcome a positional disadvantage.

His jumping could be better. He recorded a Race IQ Jump Index of 7.5 with his lifetime score being 7.7. That said, he was 0.67 lengths better in terms of his jumping than Gerri Colombe and the suspicion is that he is not going to improve his jumping significantly given that this was his 12th run over fences.

He finished third in the Grand National at Aintree last season, where he did jump better than he did here with a jump index of 8.1. He was only beaten three lengths and would have been second but for a mistake at the last, which according to his jumping data, cost him 1.1 lengths.

He is a legitimate candidate for the Grand National again, with bookmakers agreeing by halving his price to 12/1 after this success, which came in a race that has a fine record of producing National winners.

Gerri Colombe would have to be considered for the race as well given his return to form, but we need to upgrade Grangeclare West’s performance here and rate him as an easier winner than the winning margin suggests.