THE Betfred Derby meeting wasn’t spoilt by the rain, but the soft and latterly heavy conditions make for difficult analysis.

Before delving into the Oaks and Derby data I think it is reasonable to say that we saw a very good winner of the Oaks and a good winner of the Derby, albeit in conditions that made it a very attritional renewal.

Both winners can be categorised in different ways. Thundering On is a filly with plenty of speed and a change of gear, with Christmas Day more of a stayer with bottomless reserves of stamina. I have never subscribed to the usual narrative that we hear every year declaring that the Derby was a poor contest. That will be determined at the end of the season. As ever, time will tell.

The obvious place to start is with the ground. On Oaks day conditions were described as good to soft (good in places). The data backs this description up, although would remove the ‘good in places’ element.

The Race IQ time index for the values calculated with the going description in mind produced a meeting average of 5.5 out of 10 which is in accordance with good to soft ground.

Oaks Day Time Index Values

1. Naana’s Shadow: 4.3

2. Hickory Lad: 5.8

3. Seagulls Eleven: 4.8

4. Sallaal: 6.9

5. Thundering On: 5.8

6. Mister Winston: 5.2

7. Ellusive Butterfly: 4.7

8. Colombier: 6.4

Betfred Oaks (Group 1)

THIS was a visually-taking performance from a classy filly who found plenty of improvement for the step up in trip to 12 furlongs.

This was only her fifth start, and it would be no surprise were Thundering On to become a leading contender for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp. Her ability to quicken and finish strongly in a race run at a good tempo set her apart from her rivals.

Thundering On was intentionally dropped out to the back of the field with the data showing that she was the slowest horse in the race to reach 20mph, taking 3.14 seconds. She travelled strongly in what was a race that was run at a strong gallop for the first four furlongs courtesy of the Ballydoyle pair Sugar Island and Cameo.

The pace then steadied down the hill and around Tattenham Corner before picking up again through the final half mile. The data tells us that all bar Thundering On and Legacy Link (second) had cried enough after nine furlongs, all of them completing very slow splits against the Race IQ par for the final three furlongs.

Only Thundering On and Legacy Link were able to run sub-12sec furlongs through the final four furlongs and what set the winner apart was the fact that each of her final four furlongs dipped under 12secs with her final furlong of 11.99secs being rated faster than par.

In the conditions and in a strongly run race this was a remarkable finishing effort, her speed clear to see when comparing the final three-furlong splits and finishing speed percentages (FSP) of the first four finishers.

1. Thundering On: 35.60s / 111.01%

2. Legacy Link: 36.47s / 108.84%

3. Sugar Island: 37.98s/ 105.21%

The speed that Thundering On showed to run a final half mile where each furlong was under 12secs, with three of those furlongs completed on the bridle, was a remarkable effort and showcases her raw ability. According to Timeform, she is the best winner of the Oaks since Enable in 2017.

DERBY day produced very different conditions. The going at the start of a day where the rain fell consistently was good to soft (good in places). After one race that was changed to good to soft and by the time of the Derby it was officially soft.

The data suggests that the descriptions applied were an underestimation and that the ground was soft at the start of the meeting, and we had a heavy-ground Derby. The average time index for the meeting, given the going official descriptions, was 3.9, with times a good deal slower than on Oaks day.

Time Index Values on Derby Day

1. Ten Bob Tony: 3.9

2. Sparks Fly: 4.8

3. Bay City Roller: 3.9

4. Arklow Lad: 2.8

5. Christmas Day: 3.1

6. Folk Pageant: 3.1

7. Too Soon: 4.1

8. Sondad: 5.0

Betfred Derby (Group 1)

CHRISTMAS Day completed the Derby course in 2m 43.75s (+3.60s vs Race IQ par) which was the slowest Derby winning time since Teenoso in 1983. This was 4.11s slower than Thundering On in the Oaks which is a function of the softer conditions and a strong gallop.

The early pace up the hill was strong with Action leading Christmas Day through a faster than par first four furlongs. For Christmas Day to attend this strong early pace and still be able to win, he must be categorised as a very strong stayer at 12 furlongs with the potential to stay a mile and three quarters and further.

It is testament to the attritional nature of this year’s Derby that Christmas Day was unable to run a sub-12sec furlong unlike Thundering On who completed four in a row to finish the Oaks. All his final five furlongs were very slow or slow as against the Race IQ par and his final three-furlong split was a very slow 38.27s (3.27s slower than Thundering On).

He was the fastest horse through the final furlong with a split of 13.42secs which reflects him seeing the trip out better than his rivals in stamina-sapping conditions. Quite simply, he raced close to the pace and just kept going better than the rest.

Of the vanquished, James J Braddock emerged with plenty of credit, perhaps not ideal on the day that connections looked to ride him in a similar fashion to the Oaks winner. He was still in 11th place with three furlongs to run, but from three out to two out was fastest in the race with a 12.20sec furlong, despite having to go around weakening rivals.

He backed that up with a penultimate furlong of 12.52sec which was the joint fastest in the race along with Christmas Day. He was unable to sustain that surge in the final furlong but kept going well enough and he deserves plenty of credit and a sectional upgrade for making the big move that he did to get into contention on a day when horses were not making up ground from the rear.

He was very well bought at 40,000gns and will keep on improving if his rather coltish behaviour that was witnessed in the preliminaries can be kept under wraps.

Christmas Day has abundant stamina and the St Leger looks ideal for him. In the meantime, he will head to the Irish Derby where Benvenuto Cellini will be back in opposition. He was controversially declared a non runner at Epsom after getting a hind leg stuck in the stalls and it was fortunate for his supporters that a camera was focused on him at the start.

To me this sets an unwanted precedent with endless possibilities for non-runners to be declared. I await the first hood being removed late conferring an unfair start, to join the non-runner debate.