ANALYSIS this week comes from Cheltenham last Saturday, where a hole in the track and a fractured pelvis made the unexpected headlines.

It strikes me that the final race should not have taken place, nobody knew why the hole was there or if other undiscovered holes existed.

As it turned out they got away with it, but the risk was not worth taking, given the possible consequences and particularly as the light was gone by the time they ran the race.

All eight races on the Cheltenham card were steadily run, with jockeys cognisant of the soft conditions and riding accordingly.

All of the races produced relatively fast finishes, as evidenced by the Finishing Speed Percentages (FSP) that were produced.

Jordans Cross: 108.35%

Maestro Conti: 106.23%

Donnacha: 108.55%

Favori De Champdou: 105.67%

Spillane’s Tower: 114.63%

The New Lion: 119.49%

Ma Shantou: 110.70%

Kripticjim: 108.29%

The fastest finishes came from the two best horses on the card in Spillane’s Tower and The New Lion and both are worthy of closer examination, as is what Maestro Conti achieved in the Triumph Hurdle trial.

Lightly raced since last winning in April 2024, Spillane’s Tower returned to form in the Betfair Grade 2 Cotswold Chase after having run twice over hurdles. This test of speed at three miles suited him as did the fact that he was in receipt of 6lb from both L’Homme Presse (second) and Grey Dawning (third).

Spillane’s Tower is a fast horse, and this race did nothing to enhance his Gold Cup claims. He travelled strongly in a race that was steadily run and which turned into a four-furlong sprint.

He completed that final half mile in 55.43s, which was 0.59s (2.5 lengths) faster than L’Homme Presse and, even though he finished the race strongly with a 14.90s final furlong, this is not an indicator of him seeing the trip out strongly, it was more an advertisement of how well he sustained his speed for four furlongs.

He has run beyond three miles on two other occasions. He won the Champion Novice Chase over three miles and a furlong at Punchestown in 2024 but that was steadily run, with Spillane’s Tower saving energy for a fast finish recording an FSP of 112.59%.

A year later in a strongly-run Punchestown Gold Cup, he was beaten 22 lengths into second by Galopin Des Champs, where his FSP was 101.18%.

It may be that he needs another chance to prove that he stays a strongly-run three miles, but at this stage, the data suggests that he is more of a Ryanair horse.

He is a better jumper of fences than hurdles with a lifetime Race IQ jump index of 8.5 compared to 7.5. He exceeded his overall record here with a score of 8.8.

Jumping

Grey Dawning ran well in third and did not have a hard race, but his jumping is a problem. He is prone to making errors in the closing stages of races, as he did in the Betfair Chase at Haydock and the Bowl at Aintree last season.

On this occasion, he jumped well until the second last where a mistake saw him lose 2.92 lengths on the winner with an above average speed loss of 6.22mph. His overall jump index of 7.8 is good, but errors late on in races are a problem for him.

A RETURN to patient tactics after falling when making the running in the Fighting Fifth saw The New Lion back with a win in the Grade 2 Unibet Hurdle, a race run at a crawl and a test of his speed. He was still in third place two furlongs from home, but a penultimate furlong of 12.91s and a final furlong of 13.01s got him out of trouble and he was not flat out to pull a length and a half clear of Nemean Lion.

He has displayed similar speed before in his career at Market Rasen, when clocking a 12.34s furlong when winning a bumper, and in a Novices Hurdle at Newbury, where his fastest furlong was clocked at 12.80s.

This suggests that we learnt nothing new about The New Lion other than he has recovered from his fall at Newcastle recording a Jump Index here of 7.8, and that he has plenty of speed which will serve him well in what may be a weak Champion Hurdle.

Maestro Conti ran a faster furlong than The New Lion, hit a higher top speed and jumped better in a race that was run at the same trip in a final time that was 13.82s faster. A data comparison is below.

The New Lion: 12.91s (F16)

Maestro Conti: 12.55s (F14)

The New Lion: 35.86mph (F14)

Maestro Conti: 36.93mph (F14)

The New Lion: 7.8

Maestro Conti: 8.1

I am not suggesting that Maestro Conti is a better horse than The New Lion, but this data shows that we should not get carried away with what The New Lion achieved, as he had the chance to run faster than he did, given how slowly his race was run, yet Maestro Conti was able to run faster in a stronger-run race.

Maestro Conti is unbeaten in two starts and is a live contender for the Triumph Hurdle. He is available at 9/1, which makes plenty of each way appeal. After all, in two starts, the 7/2 favourite Narciso Has is yet to run as fast as Maestro Conti. His fastest furlong being 12.91s on debut at Fairyhouse and his top speed in the same race of 35.40mph.

I would certainly rather back Maestro Conti for the Triumph Hurdle than The New Lion for the Champion Hurdle, given that he is three times the price. Either way, the Skeltons clearly have a very strong hand in both races.

Elliott trumps Mullins

THE Dublin Racing Festival looks set to beat the weather and it will deliver two days of tremendous action that will have a considerable impact on the Cheltenham markets, but this Festival does not exist as the Cheltenham trials fixture, the DRF has its own clear identity.

There has been chat about the form of the Willie Mullins yard and that prompted me to have a look at his record at Leopardstown over the last 12 months and it’s not as good as you might expect. He has had 116 runners with 11 winners at a strike-rate of 9.48%, which is well below his overall hit rate for the last 12 months that sits at an impressive 22.36%. There is no obvious reason for this, and he could easily improve that current strike rate given the horses he is aiming at the meeting, nonetheless it is an interesting statistic. Gordon Elliott has a 17.05% strike rate at the track over the same period. I will leave those figures for you to make of them what you will.