I REGULARLY approach this column with positive data, which helps explain performances, upgrades them or simply puts them into perspective.
It is a rare occasion where a winning performance produces negative data, but that is the scenario we face when it comes to Lulamba’s win in the William Hill Game Spirit Chase at Newbury last Saturday.
Some may believe that it doesn’t matter if his data at Newbury was disappointing because he won, but this was a win that saw him firm up in the Arkle market to a derisory 5/4 and you may want to take a second look at the data before lumping on at that price.
In short, Lulamba is not a good jumper of fences. He may have won the Game Spirit by six and a half lengths, but he was the slowest and least efficient horse over the big Newbury fences in the field.
The visual impression he created over the fences was a ponderous one and he produced the lowest Race IQ Jump Index in the race of 6.4 and lost ground on his rivals at nine of the 13 fences. A direct comparison with Saint Segal in second place (Jump Index 7.2) shows that he gave away 9.95 lengths with his jumping to that horse. The fact that he was able to win by the margin he did, is testament to his engine and speed between the fences, but he will not get away with a similar jumping display at Cheltenham against horses who are a good deal better than the 155-rated Saint Segal.
The question is whether Lulamba can produce a slicker and more efficient round of jumping in the Arkle against better rivals on quicker ground at a stronger pace, I have my doubts.
Similar fashion
If he had shown improvement and a growing aptitude for chasing in his three starts over fences, I would be more positive, but he has jumped in a similar fashion every start this season.
At Exeter on his debut, he won despite recording a Jump Index of 6.0, which was the second worst in the race.
He was better at Sandown next time, where he recorded an Index of 7.5, but two of the other three runners posted bigger figures.
His supporters could rightfully point out that he was a good if not spectacular jumper of hurdles, with a lifetime index in that discipline of 7.0 and he still managed to win the Grade 1 Ballymore hurdle at Punchestown.
That is testament to his raw ability and that ability has seen him unbeaten over fences so far, but his data does not belong in the same parish as his main market rivals for the Arkle in terms of jumping as outlined below.
Lifetime Race IQ Jump Index Values
Kargese 9.0
Romeo Coolio 8.4
Kopek Des Bordes 7.5
Kappa Jy Pyke 7.3
Lulamba 6.8
Lulamba may be a fast horse with an engine as big as his reputation, but his inefficient jumping of a fence makes his price of 5/4 way too short. Of course he can win the race, but you are taking 5/4 about his jumping improving and/or his raw ability being a good deal superior to his rivals and that according to the data seems highly unlikely.
THE ground at Newbury deteriorated through the day, making time comparisons difficult. Nonetheless, in winning the opening novices’ hurdle over two miles and half a furlong in a time that was 2.97s faster than Tutti Quanti, who won the William Hill Hurdle over the same trip off a mark of 151, Sober Glory signalled that he is a serious Sky Bet Supreme Novice Hurdle contender.
Harry Cobden judged this ride to perfection, making all the running and getting the fractions spot on, which allowed Sober Glory to storm 27 lengths clear of the runner-up, producing a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 103.75%.
His rivals were galloped into submission with Kadastral in second place treading water in the closing stages with an FSP of 95.79%.
It is impossible to estimate the difference in the ground between this race and the William Hill Hurdle, but the raw data is clear that Sober Glory was much stronger through the final half mile than Tutti Quanti. Their splits were as follows.
Final Four Furlong splits:
Sober Glory: 57.62s
Tutti Quanti: 62.59s
This faster finish from Sober Glory was not because he was able to save plenty of energy through the first mile compared to Tutti Quanti. Sober Glory took 2m7.83s to complete the first mile, with Tutti Quanti completing it in 2m 6.83s.
That one second difference through the first mile does not totally explain the 4.97s discrepancy through the final half mile. The sectional conclusion from the raw data must be that Sober Glory put up an outstanding effort.
He jumped well recording a Race IQ Jump Index of 8.6, gaining 17.01 lengths on the field. This aligns with his previous runs over hurdles, where he has recorded Indices of 7.9, 8.0 and 8.8.
The odds compilers saw him as being a 20/1 shot for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle immediately after this race, and this seems to be a bit big given the data he produced at Newbury, although we must see this price in the context of what looks to be a very strong renewal of the race.
THE opening race at Naas last Saturday has historically been a good guide to the Fred Winter Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, producing four winners in the last seven years and the first two home this year are serious contenders should they be targeted at the race.
Highland Crystal gave 7lb to all her rivals in the SR Ventilation Supporting Kill GAA Rated Hurdle and got the better of Saratoga by three-quarters of a length.
It was her speed that enabled her to win. She quickened through F13 (13.97s) and F14 (13.96s), at which point she looked as if she would win easily, but Saratoga stayed on strongly up the stiff finish with his final two furlongs being quicker than the winner.
Both produced similar FSPs, but one was achieved by showing plenty of speed, the other rooted in stamina.
1st Highland Crystal: 105.21%
2nd Saratoga: 105.77%
Highland Crystal can be characterised as having plenty of speed, whereas Saratoga, who was a winner at Limerick on the flat over 14 furlongs, is a much stronger stayer.
Both recorded a respectable Jump Index of 7.7. The layers were more impressed with Saratoga as far as the Fred Winter is concerned installing him as the 9/2 favourite with Highland Crystal a 12/1 shot, perhaps reflective of the fact that she has the option of the Triumph Hurdle.
Saratoga on the other hand looks tailormade for the Fred Winter given that his half-brother Brazil won this race in 2022 before going on to Cheltenham glory.
A strong gallop and the stiff finish at Cheltenham is sure to suit Saratoga, whereas the speed of Highland Crystal is something to bear in mind on better ground at Aintree in April.