MUCH has been said about Harry Cobden inheriting the J.P. McManus job this week and, in my opinion, Cobden is the closest we have ever got to the great Ruby Walsh and we should not feel sorry for Mark Walsh, who is a tremendous operator but sport and business is tough and Walsh is sure to remain an important cog in the J.P. machine.

Many of the feature races at Cheltenham still paint a murky picture and, whilst the Dublin Racing Festival may provide some clarity, we are still in a world of guesswork as far as ante-post markets are concerned.

The clearest picture emerges from the visually taking effort of Old Park Star at Haydock last Saturday, who is rightfully favourite for the Sky Bet Supreme at Cheltenham, even if he is not necessarily banker material.

Even if data simply confirms what we have seen, it still has a role to play in analysis in terms of explaining a performance and that is the starting point this week with Old Park Star’s win in the Grade 2 Sky Bet Supreme Rossington Main Novices Hurdle.

Make no mistake, Old Park Star is a fast horse as evidenced by the Finishing Speed Percentages he has achieved in his career as displayed here.

10/11/24 Sandown: 101.82%

07/02/25 Kempton: 111.89%

21/04/25 Chepstow: 108.47%

24.11/25 Kempton: 108.15%

12/12/25 Cheltenham: 107.48%

17/01/26 Haydock: 107.27%

These six races were run on ground that had good in the going description, allowing him to flash plenty of speed. He was particularly impressive last weekend at Haydock, where he destroyed a decent field, beating Hurricane Pat by 18 lengths.

The sustained speed that he showed in the final mile was too much for his rivals, all of whom were able to finish the race relatively strongly with Finishing Speed Percentages above 100%.

Old Park Star made the running and, as I watched the race live, I immediately thought this was going to be a case of short-priced favourite gets easy lead and wins.

There was an element of truth in this, but a close look at the data he produced left me to dismiss that in-running assessment. He quickened five furlongs from home and then sustained that speed all the way to the line, as displayed by his individual sectionals.

His dominance through the final stages was displayed by the fact that he was the only horse to break 13 seconds through furlongs through F13, F14 and F15.

F11: 14.15s

F12: 13.75s

F13: 12.98s

F14: 12.99s

F15: 12.78s

F16: 14.20s

Through these concluding furlongs, he went from being 0.10s ahead of Hurricane Pat to being 3.91s ahead of him at the line and he was not pulling clear of a moderate horse, given that Hurricane Pat had impressed when winning at listed level on his previous start at Sandown.

That winning margin could have been extended if Old Park Star had been asked for more effort after the last, which would have afforded him a higher FSP.

Aligned to being faster than his rivals, he also jumped better than them, recording a Race IQ Jump Index of 8.2 and gaining 4.43 lengths on Hurricane Pat with his jumping. This was in accordance with the 8.3 jump index value that he achieved on his previous start at Cheltenham.

With such compelling data, it is impossible not to rate him as a worthy favourite for the Supreme Novices Hurdle - if there is a chink in his armour, then it lies in a severe test of stamina at Cheltenham which could blunt his speed, his ability to grind out an attritional win in a strongly-run race not yet tested.

TO say that the Clarence House Chase at Ascot last Saturday was strongly run would be to underplay what happened in Berkshire, with Jonbon in front when the music stopped. On testing ground that according to the times was heavy, Jonbon ground out success in a race that was strongly run, with all the runners producing their fastest furlong through F7 of 16. Thistle Ask, who must be the most improved horse in training, set a searching gallop which led to a slow-motion finish as evidenced by the Finishing Speed Percentages.

1st Jonbon: 93.76%

2nd Thistle Ask: 92.01%

Jonbon had only one rival to beat with Gidleigh Park pulled up and Il Etait Temps falling when beaten. The race was so strongly run it became a case of Jonbon being able to keep going better than Thistle Ask, in what was a typical performance from him, and it should not be seen as a Jonbon revival. The data suggests doing what he has done before was good enough. The point about Jonbon is that however big his heart, he does not jump well enough to beat the best at Grade 1 level. This may sound like an old record, but the data is unequivocal. He has a Race IQ lifetime Jump Index of 6.9 out of 10 and, at Ascot last Saturday, his race index was 6.5. Thistle Ask jumped much better, with a score of 7.9, which saw him gain 9.62 lengths on Jonbon, that he still couldn’t win despite being the best jumper is courtesy of him doing too much too soon by racing keenly.

Jonbon will probably contest the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham. His most ardent supporters will cling to the step up to two and a half miles, but whatever the trip, his Cheltenham record and poor jumping is almost certain to let those supporters down again.

Il Etait Temps was a big disappointment, always behind the bridle, the testing conditions and strong gallop too much for him. There has to be more to this performance than can be identified in the data, but it’s worth noting that he did not jump as well as he can with a Race IQ Jump Index of 6.1 before he fell, compared to a lifetime score of 7.5.

BAMBINO Fever took a step forward in beating a modest field at Fairyhouse last Wednesday week, finishing the race strongly with an FSP of 118.26% and jumping well with a Jump Index of 6.9.

We know how good she is from last season, and this was an easy lead victory and, as such, the only question mark I would have surrounds her jumping because she had all her own way in front and set a steady gallop, so should have recorded a better jump index.

In terms of creating a good impression, Mighty Park did just that. He galloped his rivals into submission in a race where he dictated the pace, but this was not a case of crawl then sprint, it was a relentless performance suggesting he is a strong stayer at two miles and will stay further.

He recorded an FSP of 100.10% and a Jump Index of 6.9 to win by 38 lengths. This was not Old Park Star flashy, but it was a performance that destroyed his rivals and one he can build on.

He is not a speedy type, but he could be the one to be with in a strongly-run Supreme, where the speed has been sucked out of his rivals. He makes each-way appeal.