DATA has revolutionised sports analysis. It complements informed punditry, turns fiction into fact, and paints a vivid picture of what has happened as opposed to what we think has happened.

It can have a sanitising effect that is disliked by some who embrace the sport as a spectacle and don’t want to be told what happened, preferring to engage in debate and conjecture that does not tell them that they are wrong.

The good news for those of an analytical disposition is that Qipco British Champions Day was replete with fascinating data, yet there was still the unfathomable that will leave traditional analysts burning the midnight oil for as long as it takes to find a reason to believe.

The ground at Ascot was officially described as being good. This was not backed up by the data.

On both the straight and round course, conditions were at least good to firm if not slightly faster. The RaceiQ average Time Index was 8.3 out of 10 and that figure would have been higher had the Qipco British Champions Fillies and Mares not been steadily-run, producing a slow time that brought the average down substantially.

The average expectation for races of the class that were run if the ground was good would be approximately 7.0, but nowhere near as high as was achieved. The explanation is that the ground was faster than described. With a score of 10, Trawlerman put up the best time of the meeting in a race that had a disappointing turnout with just five runners going to post.

Nonetheless, this is an example of where you do not need a big or competitive field for a horse to put up a top-class performance.

RaceiQ Time Index values

Trawlerman: 10.0

Mission Central: 9.4

Powerful Glory: 9.5

Kalpana: 4.3

Cicero’s Gift: 8.7

Calandagan: 8.6

Crown of Oaks: 7.9

THE Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 1) was a strongly-run race, with Trawlerman posting a sub-par finishing speed percentage (FSP) of 98.69% (par = 102.34%).

The strong pace came courtesy of Al Qareem and Trawlerman, who jousted for the lead through the first five furlongs, with three of them being rated faster than the RaceiQ par.

They then raced evenly before Trawlerman went on seven furlongs from home, increasing the pace to such an extent that he ran faster than par from the 10th to the 13th furlong.

This unrelenting mid-race move left him vulnerable in the final three furlongs. Sweet William tried to close him down but, despite being faster than him through those final three furlongs, he could not erode the advantage that Trawlerman had established.

Final three furlongs

1st - Trawlerman 38.54s

2nd - Sweet William 38.06s

The data is clear that this was one of the best staying performances of the season.

The strong gallop tapped into Trawlerman’s endless stamina and proved that in a horse race, it does not matter what you beat but how fast you can run.

He may have won an Ascot Gold Cup impressively but, despite lesser opposition, this was a better performance on British Champions Day.

THE price of 200/1 suggests an inexplicable result and, even with data to help, the success of Powerful Glory in the Qipco British Champions Sprint (Group 1) is difficult to explain.

I would not blame anybody for putting it down to Jamie Spencer being something of a specialist jockey on the straight course at Ascot. If the result is hard to fathom, the data does help us believe it.

This was not a race that fell apart off a furious gallop, nor was it a crawl that turned into a late dash for glory. It was an honestly-run contest, with Powerful Glory recording an FSP of 101.01% (par = 99.99%).

He ran down Lazzat, who raced on the lead, recording par sectionals for every single furlong. Horses that race evenly on the lead are hard to peg back and it is impressive that, off even fractions, Powerful Glory was able to pick up so strongly from the rear of the field.

Strong metrics

He was the only horse in the race to record a faster-than-par furlong in the final quarter mile, with an 11.39s penultimate furlong, and his top speed of 41.83mph in the fourth furlong was the fastest speed achieved by any horse at the meeting.

This is very solid data that suggests we can believe the result, even if he was the longest-priced winner ever seen in a Group 1.

Unusually for a big-field sprint, there were no eyecatchers behind Powerful Glory, although Lazzat deserves plenty of credit for doing best of those that raced prominently. His performance is on a par with his victory in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at the Royal Meeting.

In both performances, he was given the same Timeform speed figure of 117, suggesting that he ran to form here - further legitimising Powerful Glory’s success.

Aside from the data, two things should be recognised. Firstly, that the sprinting division this year has been a weak one and it will be interesting to see if Powerful Glory, who has only had five starts in his career, will be able to stamp his authority next season.

Secondly, plaudits must go to Jamie Spencer, who – not for the first time on the straight course at Ascot – judged the pace to perfection.

THE Qipco British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes (Group 1) produced the slowest time of the meeting courtesy of the first mile being run slowly.

Each of the first eight furlongs were rated as slower than the RaceiQ par. They went steadier through the first nine furlongs than Trawlerman ran the same furlongs in the Long Distance Cup, and this led to the race turning into a sprint through the final half mile.

Kalpana raced in second place and, as such, was ideally placed to strike first when the pace increased. She ran the eighth furlong in a slow 13.25s before quickening through the next three furlongs - posting splits of 12.76s, 11.57s and 11.17s.

This burst of speed, whilst ideally placed, won her the race and, in recording an FSP of 110.50% (par - 100.76%), she was impossible to catch - especially with her closest pursuers giving her a few lengths head start when the sprint began.

She ran the fastest final two furlongs of the meeting recording a split of 23.09s, which is the 19th fastest of 365 winners at Ascot since the RaceiQ database came into existence in August of 2023.

Estrange, in second place, encountered some trouble in running but still finished her race just as quickly as Kalpana. Both recorded final three-furlong splits of 34.66s and Estrange was 0.16s faster than Kalpana in the final furlong. However, crucially, Kalpana had a positional advantage when that sprint began.

Impossible task

Both Bedtime Story and Danielle caught the eye flashing home from the rear of the field, having still been in eighth and 10th place going into the final three furlongs. Both produced marginally faster final furlongs than the winner but faced an impossible task given where they raced off a pedestrian gallop.

Bedtime Story has run in nine consecutive Group 1 races and is settling better now. She is at her best on fast ground and, were she to head to Del Mar for the Filly and Mare Turf at the Breeders’ Cup, she would be a big player.

Kalpana winning here just 13 days after finishing seventh in the Prix De l’Arc de Triomphe is testament to her durability, but credit must go to Colin Keane, who looked after her when her chance had gone at ParisLongchamp - ensuring that she did not leave this race behind in France.

CALANDAGAN is a world class operator who may finally get the recognition he deserves after a dominant performance in the Qipco Champion Stakes. The data he has produced in defeat in the past has been conclusive that he is world class.

Three sub-11.00s furlongs from a poor position when defeated by Danon Decile in this year’s Sheema Classic - and a final three furlongs that was 0.47s faster than City Of Troy in last year’s Juddmonte International - are but two indicators of just how much raw ability he possesses.

After defeat by Jan Breughel in the Coronation Stakes at Epsom, where he was outstayed, many doubted his resolution. However, since then, with wins in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud and the King George, he has shown just how good he is. After this showing, the doubters must surely have become believers.

Despite the presence of two pacemakers, this was not a very strongly-run race through the first half mile, but the pace did pick up five furlongs from home; ensuring a fast final time of 2m 3.19s.

Sublime speed

Calandagan and runner-up Ombudsman raced in 10th and 11th place respectively before making their moves from the rear of the field with just over half a mile to go. It was through those final five furlongs where Calandagan showed sustained speed.

He ran five consecutive furlongs that were faster than the RaceiQ par to record an FSP of 105.77% (par - 102.08%). This finishing effort saw him run the final three furlongs 0.30s faster than Ombudsman, who made his effort at the same time as Calandagan.

It has been suggested that Calandagan got first run on Ombudsman, but that is clutching at straws. Ombudsman was 0.21s faster than Calandagan through furlongs seven and eight, but then he got tired - with Calandagan 0.36s faster than him in the final two furlongs.

Whilst Ombudsman showed plenty of speed, he simply couldn’t sustain that speed as well as Calandagan through the final quarter mile. Calandagan relished the fast ground because it allows him to flash his speed and that speed suggests that he may be more effective in a strongly run 10-furlong race than 12 furlongs.

After all, the King George this year was a test of speed where Calandagan produced a fast finish with an FSP of 108.94% and, when he faced a stern test at 12 furlongs, he was found wanting for stamina by Jan Breughel. He has world-class speed and conditions that allow him to utilise that asset will always see him in the best light.

There were no excuses for the vanquished. Both Almaqam (third) and Delacroix (fourth) were able to quicken when the pace increased but could not sustain that speed. Delacroix would have been third in a few more strides, completing the final furlong 0.16s faster than Almaqam, who proved a bit one paced in the final two furlongs on ground that would have been quick enough for him.

THE final word this week goes to the most unfathomable result of the meeting that came in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) won by Cicero’s Gift.

He quickened up well from the four-furlong pole, with faster-than-par furlongs of 11.08s and 11.67s and this contributed to him recording an FSP of 100.98% (par - 100.31%), which is indicative of an evenly run contest.

Whilst the data tells us what he did, it does not explain why that was good enough to win a race against the likes of Rosallion and Field Of Gold. The answer probably lies in the fact that Cicero’s Gift raced on the far side from stall one with the runner-up, The Lion in Winter, coming from stall two - with their better fancied rivals marooned in the middle of the track.

That is speculation of course. It may just be that the best two horses on the day finished first and second and others underperformed. It does beg the question why those drawn low in the Balmoral Handicap did not track over to the far rail. It’s a case of ‘Speculation 1 - 0 Data’ on this one.