LIFE teaches us that sometimes all may not be what it seems and, as in life, sports analysis can be fraught with false trails, some of which are more convenient than others to follow and some are shrouded in confirmation bias.

Until the development of sports analytics this was always the case, but with the advent of data analysis, false trails have become a thing of the past unless you choose to follow them. In the case of the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock last Saturday, Almeraq was extremely impressive in victory.

He provided the onlooker with a visual feast of pace and power that suggests he is the best sprinter in Europe by a distance, but we must be more discerning before going down this path and crowning him champion sprinter, because the data produced by him and his rivals urges analytical caution.

The ground at Haydock last Saturday played a pivotal role in this result. The data is unequivocal that the ground was Heavy throughout the meeting, even if the executive chose to adjust it to Soft (Heavy in places) after the first three races.

The meeting average Race IQ Time Index came in at 4.9 out of 10 and the most surprising aspect of this meeting average was that Almeraq contributed the lowest time Index value of the day to that score, with an individual value of 3.1.

Throughout the three-day meeting, the straight course did ride slightly slower than the round and that played its part in this low score, but nonetheless the manner of his victory suggested much better.

Almeraq completed the six-furlong trip in a time of 1m 15.00s, which was (+1.98s) above the Race IQ Par time. A par time for a Group 1 heavy ground six-furlong race at Haydock is 1m 14.10s and, with Almeraq failing by 0.90s to reach the par, we must either conclude that the ground was worse than heavy or that the performance, although impressive, was not as good as it looked.

Key factor

Almeraq has won five races in his career and on four of those occasions there was soft in the going description. He clearly relishes testing conditions, and the manner of his success lies in his ability to handle the ground, along with his rival’s inability to deal with it.

Paborus in second gave his running and he is by the mud-loving sire Recoletos, but the other six runners found their speed to be blunted and ran poorly.

The impression that Almeraq won a race that somewhat fell apart on account of the ground is backed up by sectional analysis. Almeraq was the slowest horse into stride taking 2.54s to reach 20mph - this looked to be an intentional move to get him settled with some cover. Thereafter, he ran evenly to record a Finishing Speed Percentage of 99.48%, which is almost bang on the par expectation of 99.86%.

Whilst the visual impression he created suggests that he quickened smartly, the data suggests that he just kept galloping whilst his rivals floundered. His sectionals detail that there was no sharp increase in his speed, with his fastest furlong being his second at 11.71s. His six sectional splits are detailed below.

F1: 14.59s

F2: 11.71s

F3: 11.79s

F4: 11.78s

F5: 12.25s

F6: 12.88s

He was the only horse to record a par split through the final furlong and that 12.88s split was the only individual sectional under 13.00s, and all of the other runners bar Paborus failed to dip under 14.00s. These are numbers of sprinters who all, bar the first two, were out on their feet in the final furlong.

This was a race more about handling conditions than flashing raw speed and Almeraq succeeded in spectacular fashion in achieving that. In no way do I wish to pour cold water on the performance, but merely put it in context.

He will be very hard to beat in the Qipco British Champions Sprint if, as is likely, the ground is soft and he may well be crowned champion sprinter, which amongst a mixed bunch is fair enough, after all he did win the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot.

CONSTITUTION Hill was asked to take a big step up in grade when contesting the Group 3 September Stakes at Kempton last Saturday and, although he was reported to have bled, it is highly likely that this will be as good as he is on the level. The handicapper has seen fit to raise him 7lb, which seems harsh.

This race produced a fast final time of 2m 29.96s, which was (-1.85s) under the Race IQ Par. This fast time was produced in what was a strongly-run race with Pride Of Arras settling matters with a decisive turn of foot in the penultimate furlong, where he recorded a faster than Par 11.28s furlong and, in doing so, he hit the highest speed in the race of 39.71mph.

He is just as effective at 10 furlongs and, in a strongly-run race, this was probably as far as he wants to go, his final quarter mile speed being the decisive factor.

Constitution Hill could not muster as fast a finish as the winner, having travelled well into the home straight. He did pick up from three out to two out, but just could not find the speed of the winner.

His final three furlongs of 35.81s was 0.65s slower than Pride Of Arras and this can be attributed to him having to race through stronger fractions in the earlier part of the race than he had done in either of his previous two starts on the flat.

New challenge

At Southwell, and on his previous start at Kempton, he had sauntered through five furlongs that were slower than 13.00s, on each occasion saving energy for a relatively fast finish. In the September Stakes, he was forced to run faster than 13.00s throughout the race, which accounts for the weaker finish that we saw in this Group 3. Connections have all but ruled out handicaps, given his rise in the weights, and are positive about the performance, believing that he may take a step forward for what was his first run since March.

They are also keen to get him onto the turf over 12 or 14 furlongs. I would take the view that this was his best performance on the flat so far and that he was just not good enough in a race that tested him to the limit.

A step up in trip, where the early fractions are likely to be more sedate, may be the way to go and he will be able to more than hold his own in listed company, but whether he could step into a higher grade must be open to doubt.

One further point is worth making and that is that, when he was carrying all before him over hurdles, he rarely got into a fight, such was his dominance in that sphere. As such, the September Stakes may have been something of a culture shock, where he had to dig deeper than he ever has before and this could have caused the bleed.