Tattersalls Irish 1000 Guineas (Group 1)
PRECISE upset stable companion and favourite True Love in the Irish 1000 Guineas with a dominant display and connections will be tempted to have a tilt at the Oaks after this.
Precise became the fourth horse in a row to be beaten in the English 1000 Guineas before winning the Irish equivalent. She had shaped as if needing the run at Newmarket, where she made a big move into contention from the rear before getting tired and took a big step forward here.
Her final time of 1m 36.98s (-2.25s vs par) gave her a time index of 7.9 out of 10, with the average on the day being 8.1. This final time was achieved in a race that was evenly run and her win can be attributed to her turn of foot.
She quickened through the penultimate furlong with a faster than par 11.13s split and backed that up with a fast final furlong of 12.07s. This gave her an FSP of 104.47%, which was 2% quicker than True Love in second place.
Precise dismissed her rivals with disdain and a quick turnaround for the Oaks will be within her compass, the decision for connections revolving around her stamina for 12 furlongs, along with whether they think Amelia Earhart can win anyway.
Stiffer mile
True Love did not seem to be in the same form as at Newmarket and perhaps this stiffer mile just stretched her stamina. She hit a higher mph and ran a faster furlong at Newmarket and appeared to see the trip out better on that occasion.
Her stride data backs up the theory that she was below par with her maximum and average stride lengths being shorter than at Newmarket.
THE obvious place to start this week is with the Tattersalls Irish 1000 and 2000 Guineas, where Precise and Gstaad were emphatic winners, but Causeway won the Gallinule Stakes and has the potential to cause a Group 1 upset this season.
Causeway is a dark horse amongst all the high-profile performers at Ballydoyle, but he is improving with every start and we have not seen the best of him yet.
Unbeaten this season in three starts, he took another step forward here to gain a hard-fought victory, which looked at best useful and at worst workmanlike. The visual impression he created was not particularly impressive and collateral form students will point to the proximity of the 88-rated Zia Zabel in second place, but as I always say, it is not who you beat, but how fast you ran.
A deeper delve into the data reveals just what Causeway achieved. With Zia Zabel being raised to a mark of 107 after this, there is clearly some traditional recognition of the value of the performance as well.
Any analysis of a race should begin with the final time. The ground was described as Good (Good to yielding in places), which according to the average Race IQ time index of 7.9 out of 10 was a conservative description, with Good to Firm being closer to ground encountered on the day.
Causeway completed the 10-furlong trip in a very fast 2m 2.22s, which was (-5.38s) against the Race IQ par and that time gave him a time index for the race of 9.9 out of 10. This was the second best over the two days of the Guineas festival behind Almaqam.
A fast time is always achieved by a horse racing evenly. Shaihaan took the field through consistent sectionals when compared with the Race IQ par numbers, with all but one of his splits hitting the par number.
Causeway challenged him three furlongs out and edged to the front by the furlong pole by running 0.14s (3/4 length) faster than him through those two furlongs. He then had to see off the late surge of Zia Zabel and, despite having had a tough two-furlong battle to get to the front, he was able to find a faster than par final furlong (11.99s Fast) to repel him and win by a head.
To attend a strong gallop, see off one challenge in a tough battle and then see off one who had been more patiently ridden and had saved energy for a fast finish is a remarkable effort and even more meritorious in the context of his final time.
Fast furlongs
Causeway recorded a relatively-fast final three furlongs with his Finishing Speed Percentage of 106.78%, which is better than the Race IQ expectation of 105.82%. To be able to produce this after attending a strong pace, suggests he is a strong stayer and that would explain his entries in the English and Irish Derby. He is also entered in the Coral Eclipse over 10 furlongs, where there is often a small field, and he would be a very interesting prospect making the running in that race.
He wore cheekpieces on his previous start and they were removed on this occasion, but should he go down the Group 1 path, they may well be re-applied because the impression is that he only does what is required.
Zabel excites
Zia Zabel has been raised to a mark of 108 (+16lb). He would have been a good thing in a handicap off his previous mark. The step up in trip to 10 furlongs suited him.
His data, having saved energy by being held-up, was impressive. He hit the top speed of 41.65 mph in the race, ran the fastest furlong of 10.93s and had the highest FSP of 108.00%. That his data is in isolation better than Causeway does not make him a better horse, it means that he was suited by being able to save energy to flash strong data late in the race. It is way more meritorious to attend a strong gallop and do what Causeway did.
Nonetheless, Zia Zabel is an exciting horse to look out for at this trip or over further.
Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas (Group 1)
GSTAAD did what was expected in winning the Irish 2000 Guineas. His data showed him to be even better than the bare result.
Gstaad set a new Irish 2000 Guineas record by completing the mile in 1m 35.69s, which gave him a Race IQ time index of 9.0. As always, he was fast into stride taking just 2.40s (second fastest) to reach 20mph.
Thereafter, he raced in third place before quickening smartly through the final three furlongs, each of which were all faster than the Race IQ par.
Faster than par
None of the other runners could match his final three-furlong speed and, in the final furlong, he was the only horse to record a faster than par furlong with an 11.97s split.
This speed at the end of an evenly-run contest was very impressive and, in terms of raw data, bettered what he did at Newmarket in the 2000 Guineas, aided by him settling better on this occasion and getting more cover. A raw data comparison of the two races is below.
Gstaad 2000 Guineas Irish 2000 Guineas
Top Speed: 40.70mph 41.48mph
Fastest Furlong: 11.35s 10.91s
FSP: 99.17% 103.90%
Gstaad will give Bow Echo plenty to think about in the St James’s Palace Stakes on this evidence, with a turning mile likely to help him conserve energy before using the electric speed that he showed at the Curragh.