RAIN or no rain National Hunt trainers are getting to the point where they must get a run into some of their better horses to at least get them started on a path to bigger prizes in the season.
That was the case last Sunday where Willie Mullins got runs into Kopek Des Bordes, Anzadam and Love Me Tender. He will have been satisfied by the performances of them all, even Kopek Des Bordes who tasted defeat at odds of 1/4.
Career-best performance
His assertion that Kopek may have needed the run more than he thought is a valid reason for defeat, although we must acknowledge that he was well beaten on the day by a horse who posted a career-best. We must not make the mistake of focusing on a high profile runner–up to the detriment of a career-best effort from the winner.
On the face of it, a 10-length defeat by Irish Panther is not a great start to the season for Kopek Des Bordes, although we should be careful not to direct credit away from Irish Panther who will almost certainly go on to prove that this was no fluke.
This race was run at a strong, even gallop with the first two able to finish the race off evenly with finishing speed percentages (FSP) close to 100%.
Finishing Speed Percentages:
1st Irish Panther: 102.13%
2nd Kopek Des Bordes: 99.96%
These figures are based on the final four furlongs which were completed in 57.67s and 59.45s respectively. The way the race was run provided no excuse for the runner-up.
Now the data investigation turns to the merits of their jumping. The Race iQ jump index measures efficiency over a fence or hurdle by looking at entry speed into the jumping envelope (30 metres before and 30 metres after a fence) as well as exit speed and speed recovery time.
These factors are then converted into a score ranging from one to 10 with a score of 6.55 being the average score achieved by a sample size of over 7,000 horses in the Race iQ database.
Both jumped relatively efficiently, recording jump index scores as follows:
1st: Irish Panther: 7.5
2nd: Kopek Des Bordes: 7.4
With there being little difference in their overall jumping efficiency over the 10 fences there is seemingly little excuse for Kopek Des Bordes, although his fans with Champion Chase vouchers will point to the mistake that he made two fences from home where he lost 6.56mph compared to Irish Panther who lost 4.9mph. However, Kopek recovered well enough and has better data at the last than the winner, losing just 5.93mph compared to 6.49mph.
Overall there is no excuse in the data for the defeat of Kopek Des Bordes and there are plenty of positives for Irish Panther who ran faster splits than the runner-up through each of the final five furlongs.
Whilst a fitter - and perhaps more forcefully ridden - Kopek Des Bordes may see a different outcome when they meet again, we should remember that Irish Panther has only had five starts over fences and has kept exalted company, with three of those races being Grade 1s. This was a career-best from him and he should not be underestimated.
ANZADAM was a very useful hurdler who never fulfilled his potential in that sphere because he was far too keen in his races, and it was very encouraging to see him relax better than he has ever done to beat some useful types with authority by seven lengths on his chase debut at Naas on Sunday.
In an evenly-run race he settled in second place and, because of saving energy in the early part of the contest, he was able to quicken and show his speed in the final half-mile as displayed by his closing sectionals which gave him an FSP of 104.10%.
Anzadam closing sectionals:
F13: 15.10s
F14: 13.50s (Quickened to the front at this point)
F15: 13.96s
F16: 14.58s
By way of comparison, he was the only horse in the race to run under 14secs in the penultimate furlong and the only horse under 15secs in the final furlong. This dominant display of speed was backed up by his jumping.
Despite his keen-going tendencies over hurdles, he has always been a good jumper. His career Race iQ jump index over hurdles is 8.6 out of 10 and on his chase debut here was just as good with an index figure of 8.4, gaining 5.50 lengths on the field with his jumping.
He gained ground on all his rivals at eight of his nine obstacles in what can only be described as a dominant display. He is trading at 14/1 for the Arkle at Cheltenham and, whilst tougher tasks await, there are plenty of worse each-way ante post bets for Cheltenham 2027 than that.
LOVE Me Tender is the 8/1 favourite for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle following his Naas win. He surged 15 lengths clear of his rivals without being fully extended in a race where he travelled strongly in last place before quickening through the final three furlongs. He quickened half a mile from home and got progressively faster through the final four furlongs to record an FSP of 103.19% in a strongly-run contest.
Love Me Tender final four furlongs:
F13: 14.24s
F14: 13.95s
F15: 13.88s
F16: 13.73s
This display of speed was too much for his nearest pursuer (Bartholomew) who could only muster a 16.44s final furlong. Love Me Tender was marginally better than the average career jump index here with a score of 7.3 but it wasn’t a consistently sound round of jumping, taking a couple of hurdles to warm to his task. That said, he was better here than he had been on his Limerick debut where he recorded an index of 6.1.
There is clearly some improvement to come, but there is no doubting his ability on the flat. After all he was a well-backed 7/2 favourite for the Ebor at York where he failed to see out the trip. Given the speed he showed here, two miles will be his trip over hurdles. He is clearly the leader in the clubhouse for the Supreme but, with speed being his major asset, a strongly run Supreme on a stiff track could easily stretch his stamina, and on that basis I am not inclined to get involved at 8/1.