ASCOT and the first two days of Goodwood are the focus of my attention this week. More specifically, I am concentrating on three performances that can only be described as top class and I start with what can only be described as Graduation day for Kalpana.
The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes last Saturday produced a stellar field and a result that suggests Kalpana has taken another step forward. Her data is rock solid in a strongly-run race and there is absolutely no reason to doubt the validity of the result.
The ground at Ascot on Saturday was described as Good to Firm. This makes no differentiation between the straight course and the round course and, whilst the data would suggest the round course rode as described, the straight course was slower and would be better described as being Good at best.
The five races on the straight course recorded final times that were slower than the Race IQ Par, whereas the three round-course races produced two that were faster than Par. Whilst it is logical to expect the King George to have produced a fast time, the discrepancy between the straight course and round course Time Index values is stark.
The meeting average on the straight course, where five races were staged, was 3.26 out of 10 which, when considering that two races that were steadily run, still suggests that the ground was Good at best and certainly well-watered.
By contrast, on the round course, where there were three races, the average was 6.36 out of 10. What we can say for sure is that the runners in the King George will have encountered conditions in the home straight that were slower than those in the earlier part of the contest.
Straight Course Time Index values and Par Times
1. Never Enough 2.6 (+1.99s vs Par)
2. Moonrise 4.7 (+0.59s vs Par)
3. Amazing Journey 3.6 (+1.45s vs Par)
4. Hickory 1.1 (+3.56s vs Par)
5. All Ways Glamorous 4.3 (+0.68s vs Par)
Round Course Time Index Values and Par Times
1. Kon Tiki 4.3 (+0.95s vs Par)
2. Kalpana 7.9 ( -1.57s vs Par)
3. Primo Lara 6.9 ( -1.52s vs Par)
Kalpana won the King George in a fast time of 2m 27.72s. This time was achieved with a slightly surprising pace scenario. Despite the presence of Action, who was presumably employed as a pacemaker, the first five furlongs were relatively steady with Kalpana’s individual splits showing that she ran slower than Par sectionals through that period of the race, getting progressively slower.
Kalpana First Five Furlongs
F1: 14.09s
F2: 11.52s
F3: 11.78s
F4: 12.29s
F5: 12.84s (Kalpana’s slowest sectional in the race)
Thereafter, there was a mid-race injection of pace through the next half mile with each furlong rated faster or very Fast when compared to the Race IQ Par.
Kalpana Furlong Five to Nine
F6: 12.34s
F7: 12.22s
F8: 11.83s (Kalpana’s Fastest Sectional in the race)
F9: 12.01s
This injection of pace created a race that was a strong test of stamina, with all the runners recording a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) that was slower than the Race IQ Par of 102.86%, which is the expectation for a race of this class over this trip at Ascot on the ground described.
1st Kalpana: FSP 100.70%
2nd Calandagan: FSP 101.70%
3rd Benvenuto Cellini: FSP 100.42%
For the sake of completion, those three final furlongs produced by Kalpana are detailed below and show us where she employed a turn of foot to win the race.
Kalpana Final Three Furlongs
F10: 12.13s
F11: 11.98s (The decisive furlong)
F12: 12.69s
Kalpana encountered a bit of trouble in running in the home straight and, therefore, Colin Keane had to wait longer than he had done in this race last year and in the Hardwicke earlier this month, but once in the clear, Kalpana responded by quickening at the two-furlong pole with a decisive furlong of 11.98s.
This furlong and her final furlong of 12.69s were both faster than the two final furlongs produced by Calandagan, but it can be argued that he had to use his speed earlier than her, having raced further back in the field.
Calandagan quickened through the 10th furlong to try and get into contention. His 11.83s through that furlong in contrast to Kalpana, who clocked 12.13s. This took him from being 0.33s behind Kalpana to 0.03s behind her, but just as he got that close, she quickened and, by the end of the penultimate furlong, she was 0.15s ahead which increased to 0.26s at the finish. They clearly both quickened and emerge with equal credit, but Calandagan was forced to make his move too soon and that was decisive.
One further point about Calandagan is that he is a fast horse with an electric turn of foot, as he showed in defeat behind City of Troy in the Juddmonte International 2024 and a stern test of stamina blunts his speed. That was the case when he was defeated by Jan Breughel in the Coronation Stakes at Epsom in 2025 and it can be argued that it was the case here.
He would also have been better if the ground had been genuinely Good to Firm in the home straight - conditions that allow him to flash his speed. A return to a strongly-run 10 furlongs will see him return to the winner’s enclosure, because nothing about this effort suggested he is past his best.
This was easily a career best for Kalpana and Timeform rate her as being the joint highest-rated filly or mare in the world, along with the Australian mare, Autumn Glow.
THE Qatar Goodwood Festival began on Tuesday on ground officially described as Good (Good to Firm in places). The data suggests this was a conservative estimation and that Good to Firm is an accurate assessment.
The Average Race IQ Time Index on the day came in at 7.0, with every race dipping under the Race IQ Par time and that included the steadily-run Lennox Stakes that turned into a sprint.
The Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup was a dramatic and somewhat chaotic race, with much focus being given to Amiloc, who unseated his jockey leaving the stalls and then went on to cause interference to eventual runner-up Trawlerman three furlongs from home. Whilst Trawlerman was clearly inconvenienced, it is beyond fanciful to think he would have beaten Scandinavia with a trouble-free run.
Scandinavia ran faster than Trawlerman through each of the final five furlongs and, whilst it is impossible to decipher just how much the interference cost Trawlerman, we can be confident that it didn’t cost him eight and a half lengths and, crucially, he was already running slower than Scandinavia at the point when the trouble occurred.
Scandinavia completed the two-mile trip in a time of 3m 23.53s, which is a fast time given that it came in at -3.10s under the Par expected for a race of this class, over this trip on fast ground and gave him a Race IQ time index of 7.9, which was the highest on the card.
This final time tells us that this race was a stern test of stamina, as does the FSP which came in at 104.20% with the Par number being 106.52%. The relatively-slow final three furlongs were courtesy of the strong early gallop and the fact that William Buick increased the tempo on Trawlerman five furlongs from home, all the while stalked by Scandinavia.
Final stages
From that five-furlong point, Ryan Moore was anxious not to get to the front too soon, but his hand was forced when Trawlerman was hampered, which was just after the three-furlong pole.
Whilst being hampered, Trawlerman completed that third last furlong in 12.10s, with Scandinavia seizing the initiative with an 11.68s furlong. The difference between these two splits is 0.42s, which equates to two and a half lengths (the conversion rate on fast ground is equivalent to six lengths a second). Clearly, had he not been hampered, Trawlerman would have finished closer to Scandinavia, but would not have won.
What is impossible to equate is momentum loss, as is just how much the loose Amiloc kept Scandinavia up to his work in the closing quarter mile. Given that Scandinavia is a lazy type and does just what he has to, it is fair to assume he was helped by having a horse to race with.
This is perhaps reflected in the final furlong ,when he was the only horse to record a par sectional (12.79s) with the rest of the field unable to break 13.00s.
Whilst it may suit a particular narrative to say Amiloc helped him, I would rather take the view that he saw out a truly-run race a good deal better than all of his rivals, because he is a good deal better than them, a truly world-class stayer in the mould of Kyprios and on track to at the least emulate that great horse.
ON the second day of the Qatar Goodwood Festival, the ground was described as a shade quicker than on the first day. It changed to Good to Firm (Good in places). Whilst the data concurs with a Good to Firm description, the ground was a shade slower than on Day 1, with an average Race IQ time index value of 6.5 (Day 1 7.0).
This figure was not unduly affected by steadily-run races that would have served to bring the average figure down and, consequently, the water that was put on overnight must have had an effect, albeit the ground was still fast.
The most eagerly-anticipated race of the week was the Sussex Stakes, with Bow Echo defending his unbeaten record and taking on Gstaad for the third time this season. The race did not disappoint, with Bow Echo remaining unbeaten in a race where there were no hiding places.
Bow Echo won in a time of 1m 36.03s, which was (-1.48s) under the Race IQ par and, as such, was the fastest time produced over the first two days of the meeting. This time garnered a Race IQ time index of 8.5 in what was a top-class performance from a horse who must be described as the champion miler now.
The race was very strongly run, courtesy of Dorset, Qirat and the very keen-going Opera Ballo. The first three furlongs were fierce, with Dorset taking the field along in fast fractions of 13.92s, 11.25s and 12.10s. After three furlongs, Bow Echo was 1.12s off the lead, with Gstaad just ahead of him.
Both were given very well-judged rides in terms of pace, as indicated by their finishing speed percentages, which were very close to the par number expectation for a race of this class on the described going at Goodwood.
Finishing Speed Percentages (Par Number: 102.10%)
1st Bow Echo 101.95%
2nd Gstaad 101.08%
Gstaad completed all the eight furlongs in a Par figure, rated perfectly by Ryan Moore. It was the same from Billy Loughnane on Bow Echo, but the difference between them can be found in a final-furlong surge from Bow Echo that saw him run a faster than par sectional of 12.02s (Fast), compared to 12.28s (Par) from Gstaad.
This does not tell the full tale, and Bow Echo needs to be given a small sectional upgrade because he overcame some trouble in running when locked in a pocket by Gstaad and Puerto Rico, and still managed to run faster than Gstaad through four of the final five furlongs.
In terms of sectional data, this was a very similar race to the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. In that race, Bow Echo was rated evenly, ran faster than Gstaad through each of the final five furlongs and then, just as in the Sussex Stakes, he was able to run a faster than par final furlong of 12.24s with Gstaad unable to find the same speed in a split of 12.57s.
There is no doubt that Bow Echo is the best miler around. Gstaad has thrown everything at him and, on three occasions, has come up short each time; his efforts top class, but just not good enough.
Opera Ballo is a frustrating if very talented horse. He just won’t relax in the early part of his races, leaving him with no petrol when it matters most. In all his last three races, he has been the fastest horse to reach 20mph and has found himself in front with no cover.
On this occasion, it only took him 2.06s to reach 20mph, which is the fastest of his career and, in so doing, he was on the front foot and far too keen from the outset. This is reflected in his finishing effort, which saw him complete the final two furlongs in slower than par numbers for an FSP of 98.72% (Par 102.10%).
He is a genuine Group 1 horse, but his rapid starts are his Achilles heel, particularly when he is in a race where other horses are intent on going forward and, as a result, gets involved in a speed duel that drains his energy reserves.
TONY Montana has had a barren couple of years, but he looks one to monitor closely after his eye-catching fourth in the Chesterfield Cup at Goodwood on Tuesday, writes Andy Stephens.
The Kevin Philippart de Foy-trained six-year-old was drawn widest of the 17 runners and was obliged to race in rear, still having only one rival behind him with only two furlongs left to run.
However, he was fastest of the whole field in both, with splits of 11.17sec and 11.83sec sweeping him past a dozen rivals before he ran out of road.
He ended up being beaten only a length and a half and the form has substance, too, with well-fancied market leaders Al Aali and Noble Horizon, both decisive winners of their previous outings, fighting out the finish.
Tony Montana has run well at York in the past, including off higher marks, and the Ebor meeting probably beckons for him.
On the same day, the Willie Mullins-trained Love Me Tender let down favourite-backers, when only fourth in a well-contested beginners’ chase at Galway.
He was betrayed by some scruffy jumping, getting a Jump Index score of only 5.1 out of 10 and losing 3.66 lengths with his leaping.
There was nothing wrong with his hurdling technique - his Career Jump Index over the smaller obstacles is 8 out of 10 - and he deserves another chance.
The runner-up, Bowensonfire, jumped best of all, gaining 6.66 lengths in the air. He won at the Dublin Racing Festival last season and should have another good campaign.