THE higher profile performances over the Festive period have been analysed to within an inch of their diagnostic existence, partly because of their direct relation to races at the Cheltenham Festival and partly due to the recent cold snap, which has led to a paucity of action.
That said, there were some performances that have avoided microscopic examination, and they are the focus of my attention this week.
With Final Demand, Kitzbuhel and Romeo Coolio commanding the novice chase headlines, Kaid d’Authie has slipped under the radar after his stylish 10-length win in a beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse on New Year’s Day and there is no doubt that he will be more of a talking horse in March.
Kaid d’Authie never looked like fulfilling his potential over hurdles despite winning twice over the smaller obstacles, but in two starts over fences he has looked to be a different proposition.
He has already shown that he is a better jumper of fences than hurdles as indicated by his lifetime Race IQ jump index scores of 7.0 out of 10 over hurdles compared to 8.2 over fences.
He was only beaten a length and a quarter by Kitzbuhel on his chasing debut at Punchestown, pulling 11 lengths clear of the third, and there was not much discrepancy between the two in terms of their data.
Both finished the races relatively strongly, with finishing speed percentages (FSP) of 105.63% for Kitzbuhel and 105.60% for Kaid d’Authie.
Highly promising
They both jumped efficiently as well, with Kitzbuhel recording a slightly higher jump index of 8.9 compared to 8.6 for Kaid d’Authie.
This was a highly promising start to both of their chasing careers, and the collateral value of the form is obvious, following Kitzbuhel’s success in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton, but that Kempton form may not be worth as much as the beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse.
Whilst Kaid d’Authie did not go on to win a Grade 1 on his next start at Fairyhouse, he arguably achieved just as much by beating the useful 139-rated hurdler Wingmen by 10 lengths. Surely this is just as good as beating the 142-rated hurdler Thomas Mor by two and three-quarter lengths at Kempton? The Fairyhouse race was run at a steady gallop for a mile with Kaid d’Authie and Wingmen racing in first and second until Mark Walsh increased the pace on the winner with five fences to jump.
Kaid d’Authie proved to be 1.5 secs (seven and a half lengths) faster than Wingmen through the final four furlongs. This is represented by their respective FSPs of 103.90% and 101.96%. He also jumped quickly and efficiently with a Race IQ jump index of 8.7 compared to Wingmen, who recorded a value of 7.3.
His jumping afforded him an advantage of 5.59 lengths over the runner-up, and that despite jumping to his right on occasions at what is a right-handed track. He did make a mistake two out, but only took 0.4 seconds to recover his entry speed into the fence and was soon back in full control. Whilst Kaid d’Authie was not as spectacular or as visually impressive as Kitzbuhel at Kempton, he achieved just as much at Fairyhouse and there is the promise of more to come when he goes left-handed. He has a number of options at the Cheltenham Festival and must enter calculations wherever he runs.
HEART Wood was second in the Ryanair Chase last year to Fact To File and looks to be on course for that race again after his win in the Grade 3 O’Driscoll’s Irish Whiskey New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore, although he has also been given an entry in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Robbie Power, representing the owner Robcour, told me on Racing TV last Tuesday that they are keen to explore three miles-plus, so the Gold Cup may be their preferred route but, if not, a big run in the Ryanair can be expected after this win.
Switching to front-running tactics, which are well suited to this track, Heart Wood easily beat a strong Grade 3 field, pulling eight and a half lengths clear of the useful Ile Atlantique.
The sectional data shows that Darragh O’Keeffe dictated a stop-start gallop and there is no doubt that he got the run of the race, affording him enough energy for a relatively fast finish (FSP: 106.89%).
Strong finish
His final furlong of 16.80 secs was over a second quicker than the runner-up and this strong finish may have played its part in connections contemplating a Gold Cup tilt, but this race was messy in terms of pace and is not a good stamina indicator. If anything, this performance strengthens Heart Wood’s credentials for another tilt at the Ryanair.
His jumping was not as good as it can be. His lifetime jump index of 7.6 is bigger than the value of 7.4 that he achieved here. Indeed, according to the data, he was the least efficient jumper in the race, his advantage over his rivals clearly coming from dictating the gallop rather than being the best jumper.
Heart Wood is only an eight-year-old with scope for some more improvement, particularly in his jumping, but that is more likely to come in a strongly-run Ryanair than a Gold Cup. With doubts about Fact To File after his lacklustre run in the King George at Kempton, Heart Wood makes some each-way appeal for the Ryanair at a generally available 16/1.
IT’S tough and perhaps unwise to get involved in Cheltenham handicaps at this stage of the season, but when Bowensonfire won a handicap hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas, I immediately thought that the County Hurdle would be ideal for him.
I have no idea whether he will run in the race, but am prepared to take a chance at 20/1.
Bowensonfire is a strong-travelling hold-up horse with a turn of foot, which is ideal for a big-field handicap and, with a lifetime jump index value of 7.9, is clearly a quick and efficient hurdler.
He is slightly quirky and hung to his left in the closing stages here, but still finished his race off strongly with an FSP of 106.89%. He was still in seventh place three furlongs out, but finished the race very strongly and, in recording a 14.42s final furlong, he was one of only two horses in the race to record a sub-15.00 secs final furlong.
He has previous form at Cheltenham as well. Earlier this season he was a very good third to French Ship, in a race where the winner and the second were always prominent and he was at a positional disadvantage, racing off the pace in eighth place. Nonetheless, he made a big move through three of the final four furlongs, proving to be the quickest horse through furlongs 17, 18 and 19.
He paid for this effort in the final furlong, but is still worthy of a sectional upgrade for the big move that he made and a strongly-run two-mile race back at Cheltenham in March will be ideal.