King George VI Chase ( Grade 1)
THERE was plenty of data-rich action over the festive period and a collision of visual impression and analytics always makes for the most illuminating analysis. The two collided on a few occasions this Christmas, most notably at Kempton where the King George was rightly lauded as a fine advert for the sport, but was it really a race for the ages?
The race produced a pulsating three-horse photo finish with The Jukebox Man gamely edging out Banbridge and Gaelic Warrior in a track record time of 5m 49.13s.
This fast time was courtesy of the drying ground which was faster than the official description of Good (Good to Soft in places).
Fast times and track records are usually achieved when races are run evenly, on this occasion the track record cannot be ascribed to an even gallop because, despite there being several front runners in the race, the early pace was steady leading to a very fast sprint finish. This is evidenced by the finishing speed percentages (FSP) of the first three home.
1st The Jukebox Man: 111.66%
2nd Banbridge: 112.79%
3rd Gaelic Warrior: 112.41%
Even Fact To File, who was a well-beaten sixth, produced a final four furlongs that suggested he finished the race relatively strongly (109.33%). Quite simply, this was not a test of stamina at three miles, rather a test of speed through the final six furlongs.
Il Est Francais led the field at a steady gallop for the first two and a quarter miles before the winner took up the running and immediately increased the pace. This pace increase can be illustrated by dividing the race into four six-furlong segments.
The Jukebox Man: Six-furlong splits.
1st 6F:1m 32.95s
2nd 6F: 1m 28.47s
3rd 6F: 1M 27.68s
4th 6F: 1m 20.01s
This final six-furlong split equates to The Jukebox Man being 46 lengths faster through the final six furlongs than he was through the penultimate six.
In a race of fine margins, Banbridge can be rated as being worthy a sectional upgrade having competed the final six furlongs in 1m 19.61s which was 0.40s (2.40 lengths) faster than The Jukebox Man, but in a race that turned into a sprint, he was relatively poorly placed in sixth place when that sprint began.
In terms of jumping efficiency, the first four recorded the following Race IQ Jump Index values.
1st The Jukebox Man 8.2
2nd Banbridge 8.4
3rd Gaelic Warrior 7.8
4th Jango Baie 7.3
There were no race-ending blunders to speak of, but Jango Baie supporters can perhaps rue the fact that he gave away 4.61 lengths to the winner with his jumping and was only beaten by three quarters of a length.
This race gives us no clues as to the Cheltenham Gold Cup given the nature of how it was run, a fast ground speed test on a flat track, a long way removed from a three and a quarter mile stamina test at a much stiffer track.
However, it provides us with a classic example of why we should never be fixated on final times, but rather on how times are achieved.
Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1)
I WAS very surprised to hear that connections were considering their options after the success of Sir Gino in the Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle. Surely there is nothing to consider, he must run in the Champion Hurdle.
I hate to pour cold water on this type of performance but it’s time for a data reality check. Sir Gino destroyed this field, pulling six lengths clear of Golden Ace, but he did nothing more and nothing less than he has done before. In short, what we learnt was that after a year off the track, the old Sir Gino is back with the promise of a better version later this season where sterner tests await.
This race was a test of speed with Sir Gino making most of the running and quickening smartly to record an FSP of 104.63%, with a final four-furlong split of 52.53s. This is not a standout FSP for him as he recorded 111.13% when he won the Triumph Hurdle Trial in January 2024 at Cheltenham.
Whilst it is natural to be impressed with the way he sprinted clear of Golden Ace, it will surprise many that The Jukebox Man was 0.42s quicker than Sir Gino through the final half mile of their respective races, further evidence of the crawl and sprint nature of the King George.
In essence, Sir Gino got an easy lead and had too much speed for Golden Ace, faster than her through each of the final four furlongs. His fastest furlong was the 13th where he recorded a split of 12.49s compared to 12.51s for Golden Ace, he then sustained that speed better than her to the line. There is no reason to suspect that Golden Ace underperformed in any way, but it was achieved in fast conditions where an easy lead had allowed Sir Gino to save energy for such a strong finish.
Above average
His jumping was not as good as it can be. He achieved a Race IQ Jump index of 7.3 out of 10 which is above average, but he has jumped better. He achieved a score of 7.6 when he won the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree in 2024 and 8.0 when he won the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle.
This was the first time in his career that he lost ground jumping on his rivals, losing 0.59 lengths on the field and it would be no surprise to see him sharper and more efficient at his hurdles next time out. Make no mistake, Sir Gino is back and is a leading contender for the Champion Hurdle, but the outstanding visual impression he created must be seen in the context of the data which is in accordance with his previous runs over hurdles.
Sir Gino is 7/4 favourite to win the Champion Hurdle, which is too short. Given what Lossiemouth achieved at Leopardstown on Monday her price of 7/2 is too big.
December Hurdle (Garde 1)
GIVEN that the Champion Hurdle seems to lack strength in depth this year surely the Champion Hurdle is the race for Lossiemouth this season, on the back of this convincing win over the returning Brighterdaysahead. Any comparison of her data with Sir Gino’s at Kempton is futile given the difference in conditions with the ground at Leopardstown which was much softer than at Kempton.
Lossiemouth raced handily in a race that was evenly run, and she kept on strongly to record an FSP of 104.61%. She is a strong stayer at two miles, and she ran similar splits through each of the final six furlongs illustrating the relentless nature of this performance.
Lossiemouth - Final five-furlong splits
F11: 13.96s
F12: 13.48s
F13: 13.60s
F14: 13.70s
F15: 13.52s
F16: 14.89s
This relentless display indicates that Paul Townend judged the pace well and was keen to utilise her stamina. It would be wrong though to think that she is just a relentless galloper. She has already shown plenty of speed in her career as illustrated by the fact that she has recorded four finishing speed percentages of more than 110.00%.
She is a versatile mare who can grind out success as she did here, but she has speed to burn when ridden more patiently. After all, the top speed she has reached in her career is 37.32mph compared to Sir Gino at 36.29mph.
Anzadam was a disappointment. He took charge and surged to the front six furlongs from home with a 13.50s furlong with none of his rivals running under 14.00s. He followed that up with a 13.49s furlong which was faster than all his rivals.
He gradually weakened after that effort, but it is testament to his raw ability that he still recorded an FSP of 101.24% and was only beaten just over six lengths. His potential remains intact if his zestful nature can be tamed and he will always be best in a strongly-run race at two miles.
Majborough’s day will come?
Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase (Grade 1)
RACING too keenly was the problem for Majborough when defeated by Solness.
Solness repeated his win in this race and it was a case of him doing exactly what he did in 2024, setting a strong even gallop and making all the running. A comparison of his data from 2024 is below.
Solness data 2024 Solness data 2025
FSP: 104.15% FSP: 101.68%
Fastest Furlong: F15:13.34s F15: 13.46s
Top Speed: 34.34 mph 33.59mph
Jump index: 8.2 7.9
This was Solness doing Solness things at a track that seems to suit his style. Majborough once again did what he normally does as well but added racing too freely to his repertoire. I may sound like a broken record when it comes to his jumping, but data is data and once again it suggests that he jumped very well. He recorded a jump index of 9.1 which was the best in the race and gained 6.15 lengths on his rivals.
He continues to defy the visuals with his quick jumping, but there was no hiding the fact that he raced too keenly and as a result could not finish the race as strongly as Solness who ran the final four furlongs in 58.29s compared to Majborough who recorded 58.78s. One day, he will put it all together, but he is becoming a bit of a dilemma.
Marine Nationale should have won. An unfortunate error at the second fence meant that Sean Flanagan became unbalanced and was nearly unseated. It took Marine Nationale 3.33s to recover his entry speed of 32.13mph whereas Solness was able to recover his entry speed 2.33 seconds quicker.
This incident did not help, but it is also interesting to note that the data highlights his jump at the last was perhaps just as influential in his defeat. His jump index at the second fence was 7.0 but at the last he was much more inefficient with an index of 6.2.
He put in an extra stride and was very slow through the jumping envelope losing 7.88mph compared to Solness who lost 6.64mph. This was a slow jump from Marine Nationale but, with all the post-race focus having been on the second fence, it is worth noting that the data indicates that the crucial error came at the last. He was faster than Solness through each of the final two furlongs but was still beaten by half a length.
Demand v Romeo a clash worth a wait
THREE more interesting analytical points from the festive period begin with a remarkably fast horse in the shape of El Cairos who could be one of the best novice hurdlers.
At any given point in any race over four days of action at Leopardstown, no horse ran faster than El Cairos in the maiden hurdle on St Stephen’s Day hitting a top speed of 36.11mph with a rapid 15th furlong of 12.65s, the next best through the same furlong was posted by the winner, Murat, who ran 13.40s. El Cairos had jumped well to that point with a jump index of 7.6. He had shaped better than the bare result when fifth in the Champion Bumper and is clearly a useful novice.
Final Demand was imperious at Limerick sauntering to success in the Grade 1 Faugheen Novice Chase. He had jumped very efficiently on his debut over fences at Navan, recording a jump index of 9.2. He was not quite as good with an index of 8.2, but for a novice having just his second start over fences, that is still a high score. In both races, he finished very strongly with FSPs of 114.61% and 110.83% respectively without being hard pressed in either race. Final Demand may come up against Romeo Coolio at Leopardstown in February and that horse narrowly landed the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase. He showed plenty of resolution to get up and win over a two-mile trip which is too sharp for him. He has had three runs over fences and has achieved a lifetime jump index of 8.5 compared to Final Demand who has achieved a score of 8.7.
A clash between them later this season will be fascinating, given that they are both potentially improved performers now they have been switched to the larger obstacles.