THE unbeaten Bow Echo produced the performance of the season so far when winning the 2000 Guineas, but he has a rival now for that accolade in the form of Constitution River, who may well be the most talented three-year-old at Ballydoyle after his demolition of the Dee Stakes field at Chester.
His participation in the Derby is not yet confirmed but, if he were to line up, Ryan Moore would have a very difficult decision to make between him and Benvenuto Cellini. Does he go with the unfettered potential laced with stamina doubts of Constitution River, or play it safe with Benvenuto Cellini, who last week looked to be ready-made for the Derby?
Make no mistake, Constitution River is the real deal and, should he run in the Derby, will be hard to beat. The final time of 2m 6.54s gave him a time index of 9.9, which was the highest at the meeting. That outstanding final time was produced in a race that was steadily run for the first five furlongs, but through the next five, Constitution River ran faster than the Race iQ par through four of those furlongs, producing five consecutive sub-12.00s furlongs.
This was an outstanding display of sustained speed that gave him a finishing speed percentage (FSP) of 102.87% (Par: 101.86%). A final furlong of 11.70s (Fast) saw him hit the line very strongly to win by a comfortable seven lengths in a race where he was entitled to get tired on his return to action, with the pace picking up a long way from home.
Stamina questions
His ability is now well established, and his Derby credentials hang on a decision as to whether he will stay a mile and a half. He is by Wootton Bassett out of Wonderful Tonight, who was a top-class Group 1-winning mare at 10 furlongs, and it would be fair to say that this is not a stamina-laden pedigree. As such, he may be a candidate for the Prix du Jockey Club, particularly given Ballydoyle have an embarrassment of Derby riches amongst their entries.
Such is his raw ability and speed that he showed at Chester on fast ground, I would not rule out a return to a mile one day, but for now we await a Derby decision, one that can be made with the comfort of knowing that they could have a superstar on their hands.
Such is the Ballydoyle stranglehold on the Epsom Derby that they may decide that Benvenuto Cellini is their number one, after all this horse comes with no stamina queries.
Benvenuto Cellini may be hard to say, but trainer Aidan O’Brien was effusive in his praise for this horse last week. He completed the mile and a half in a time of 2m 35.22s, which gave him a Race iQ Time Index of 9.6 – which was the second-fastest time at the meeting behind Constitution River.
He looks to be a very legitimate candidate for the Derby after this, even if he may not possess the star quality of Constitution River. The race was steadily run for two furlongs and then settled into a strong tempo before the pace increased with half a mile to go.
Guaranteed stayer
Through that final half-mile, Benvenuto Cellini completed each furlong in a sectional time under 12.00s, which no other horse in the race could manage, and each of those furlongs were rated faster than the Race iQ Par. He saw the race out strongly with his final furlong of 11.72s being his fastest in the race and, unlike Constitution River, is a guaranteed stayer at Epsom.
He has a big, long, raking stride and a low cadence, which will be ideal at Epsom. His maximum stride length on the day was a huge 8.36 metres, with his average throughout the race coming in at 7.98 metres. This compares to the numbers of 7.98 (max) and 7.95 (average) for Constitution River.
His cadence is one of a long-striding stayer with minimum knee curl at an average of 2.04 strides per second, whereas Constitution River has more knee curl and effectively spins his wheels quicker in the style of a speedier horse. His average cadence was recorded as being 2.21 strides per second.
With such a big stride and a relatively low cadence, Benvenuto Cellini will be able to save energy in the early part of the Derby where they run uphill, whereas Constitution River will use more energy with his higher cadence. The conundrum is that, if Constitution River gets the trip, his speed later in the race could prove decisive.
‘The lads’ will make the ultimate decision, which may be a lot simpler than I have made it out to be. If they think Benvenuto Cellini can win, then Constitution River will be unlikely to join him, but they could play the joker if they think Benvenuto Cellini is vulnerable, and that joker is a potential superstar who could turn out to be easily the best three-year-old we see this season.
AT Chester last week, unfortunately, the ground rather than the action became the headline act. The Race iQ par times, which look at final times and compare them with the par times then convert them into a time index score out of 10, give an accurate read on the ground conditions through the week, and are conclusive that the ground was good to firm at the start of the meeting, and remained that way with a possible addition of firm in places being necessary on the final day.
Chester Day 1: The ground was officially described as being good. All seven races on the card produced a winning time significantly under the Race iQ par. The average Race iQ time index was 8 out of 10, which is clearly indicative of the ground being good to firm
Chester Day 2: The ground was officially described as being good with 3mm of water being applied overnight. Once again, all the races were under the Race iQ par and the ground was a shade faster than on day one, with the average Race iQ time index at 8.2. The watering had no effect on how the ground rode, but it seemingly sat on the surface causing horses to slip in the first race.
Chester Day 3: The ground was officially described as being good, but it was good to firm again, very similar to the first two days, and produced an average Race iQ time index of 8.2.
There is nothing wrong with good to firm ground, but there seemed to be a reluctance to move from the party line, which was that the ground was good. Quite clearly it was good to firm for the whole meeting, and it should have been described as such and the watering that took place before the second day was clearly an attempt to maintain a going description of good, which was erroneous. It was a needless embarrassment for the sport.