Ascot Saturday

British Champions Day is a concept which has largely worked very well in bookending the season, even if the concept of the season itself remains flawed, and it will provide an excellent spectacle on television for all it was invented for the on-course crowd.

That doesn’t make it an easy punting experience, however, and while there are several outstanding favourites on the card, my focus will be nailing a few places, and hoping at least one can sneak a vital win.

1.20 Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) 1m 7f 209yds

It’s all about Stradivarius, but a recent trip to France and the prospect of holding ground is enough to make me swerve him at odds-on, especially as stall one is not the ideal location for any horse on the round course. I’m not dead against him by any means, just inclined to play each-way given the shape of the race.

I’m not sure cloying ground will suit Search For A Song here, either, and there are plenty who have something to prove. That could be said of Morando, who has been campaigned at shorter, but he’s looked all about stamina when racing at a mile and a half, his most impressive effort when taking the Cumberland Lodge here a year ago. The key to him is that slow ground covers his weakness, which is a lack of tactical pace, and he shapes as if well worth a try at two miles, notably when second to Alignak at Chester over one mile, five furlongs last time.

It won’t be a vintage race if he wins, but he seems sure to be going on at the death, and that makes him more appealing than most.

1.55 Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) 6f

Once again, there is a standout here in the shape of Dream Of Dreams, and it may simply be that gelding has transformed him this year, with his wins in the Hungerford and the Sprint Cup both good enough to win this with a bit to spare.

On the other hand, he’s flopped at this meeting for the last two years on similar ground, and even if you think those runs belong in the past, they are enough to make you hesitate about taking 2/1 or less in a big field, especially as his draw in stall 16 could be either a blessing or a curse, but nothing in between.

I’ve always maintained that Art Power would be best suited by six furlongs at Ascot, more with a view to next year’s Diamond Jubilee, but he has a chance to prove the point here, and he was very much setting the race up for Dream Of Dreams when going hard in front against the rail at Haydock last month. The way the principals drifted towards the centre in the final furlong or so suggests that the rail itself was no advantage.

Silvestre de Sousa is convinced he’s the one to be with despite Happy Power’s easy Newmarket win the other day, and I think he’s worth another chance to cement the excellent impression he made at the royal meeting and when slamming Millisle in the Lacken Stakes at Naas. That was his most impressive performance, and it’s perhaps significant that he wasn’t asked to lead that day, looking happier tracking the pace and then quickening impressively in softish ground,

2.30 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) 1m 3f 211yds

I’ll be cheering Dame Malliot on here, and victory for Ed Vaughan’s filly would be the story of the day, but keeping my hands firmly in my pockets. Next.

3.05 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) 1m

Palace Pier ought to win given his displays in the St James’s Palace Stakes and the Prix Jacques Le Marois, but again it’s the end of the season and he’s 8/13, so there must be a better way of slicing the race open. Thankfully there is.

What price should a horse be who has won both Group 1 races at Ascot, who handles all underfoot conditions, and who is officially the highest rated horse in the race behind the favourite? Not a big one I’d suggest, and Circus Maximus, who didn’t run to his best in the Marois, but has won both the St James’s Palace and the Queen Anne here is overpriced at 8/1 or bigger, especially with a couple of firms paying four places for each-way bets.

It’s a generic failing of punters that they tend to rule horses out on specific form lines rather than taking a holistic approach. Circus Maximus cannot beat Palace Pier on the form of their meeting in France last time, but form is frequently turned on its head, and more importantly, the chance of Circus Maximus beating the majority of his rivals is not encapsulated in his failure to beat a superior rival last time. He lacks the brilliance of the best milers, but cloying ground will place greater emphasis on his battling qualities, and he ought to run a big race in the circumstances.

3.40 Qipco Champion Stakes (Group 1) 1m 1f 212yds

It would be no surprise at all if last year’s result, when Magical beat Addeybb was repeated again here, but it’s worth noting that the top six in form terms are separated by only 3lb according to the official handicappers, and that warns against taking anything for granted.

Magical has the benefit of the mares’ allowance to set her apart from her rivals, and she handles soft ground, but she has been beaten both times the word heavy has appeared in the going description, and that tempers confidence a little, if not completely.

Mishriff needs to improve a little on official figures to take this, but he has the stride of a three-mile chaser and the physique to match, so he’s going to handle winter ground better than most. It would be dangerous to assume his progress, which started in the Saudi Arabian desert in February, is finished after just three subsequent runs, all of which have represented new peaks.

His absence since August is a slight concern, but given his ownership it’s likely that a winter/early spring campaign has always been the plan, and missing the Arc is part of the bigger picture.

4.15 Balmoral Handicap 1m

Finally – a race within my wheelhouse! There’s a lot to say about the Balmoral, but I’ll keep it brief.

I’ve been convinced that there is a big payday in Alternative Fact for some time, and nothing he has done this year has made me reconsider that. He ran a cracker on ground too quick in the Silver Royal Hunt Cup, was drawn badly and had to weave through against a pace bias at York last time, and met trouble in a couple of runs at Haydock (including when winning) earlier in the summer.

He wants a stiff mile, a fast pace and testing ground, and he gets all three for the first time this year.

He also has the benefit that his trainer is in better form now than at any other time in the turf season. ‘Nuff said.

Recommended

Morando 1.20 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Hills, Betfair – 4 places)

Art Power 1.55 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power – 5 places)

Circus Maximus 3.05 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365 – 4 places)

Alternative Fact 4.15 Ascot – 1.5pts e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365 – ¼odds 4 places)