IT is scarcely believable that, three and a half years after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, the two parties have not yet agreed a trade deal.

We are a month away from the end of the transition period and on December 31st the UK will no longer be a part of existing EU agreements. From an equine perspective, this means an end to the Tripartite agreement which allowed registered horses, such as thoroughbreds, to move between Ireland, Britain and France without extra veterinary checks or paperwork.

The indications are that, even in the event of no deal, Britain plans to “replicate current systems”, so sending horses from Britain will not be too difficult, although the ‘exporter’ will have to comply with new customs and export requirements. Bringing these horses back from Britain, after a race or a sale for example, is likely to be much more complicated.

If a deal cannot be signed and ratified by December 31st, Ireland will be forced to impose tariffs on goods coming from Britain, in line with EU rules. We already know that British buyer of geldings at Irish store horse sales will have to pay 11.5% duty which they cannot claim back. The same charge would apply to Irish buyers of geldings in Britain.

Chances are that a deal of some sort will be done in the coming days but would you bet your livelihood on it? This week we spoke to some people in racing and breeding who potentially will be directly affected by a no-deal Brexit as soon as the new year is rung in.

Unprepared

What we found is that even some of the biggest names involved in moving racehorses and breeding stock have made very little preparation for a no-deal Brexit. They cannot be blamed for their inaction as the truth is that nobody fully knows what might be required.

Horse Racing Ireland has put together an excellent Brexit guide for the racing and breeding industry on its website. On the British side, the British Horseracing Authority and the Thoroughbred Breeders Association have also been proactive in getting information to stakeholders. However, the guidance is not simple to digest and implement, and all sides acknowledge that some of the details remain unclear.

As one senior industry figure told us this week, “Until you bring your horsebox to the port, you don’t really know what obstacles you are going to face. The officials themselves don’t know either.”

The EU-UK negotiations continue in London this weekend. EU chief Ursula von der Leyen sounded upbeat on Wednesday when she said: “The next days are going to be decisive. The EU is prepared for a no deal scenario. But of course we prefer to have an agreement.”

However, on the same day the chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier is reported to have told his UK counterpart David Frost that the EU would pull out of negotiations this weekend if the UK did not change it’s stance on key issues.

Yesterday, betting exchange Smarkets said the prospect of a Brexit trade deal being agreed before the end of the year is at an all-time high of 86%. That’s almost 1/10 in betting odds. But, as any punter knows, odds-on shots get beaten every day. Time will tell.